1. AF 42 1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION CAPACITY IN THE LIMPOPO BASIN OF SEMI-ARID LAND SOUTHERN AFRICA: THE CASE OF EASTERN BOTSWANA.

2. AF 42 2 LIMPOPO BASIN One of the 5 of the 10 largest surface water bodies in sub- Saharan Africa Found in Southern Africa Extends over 3720000 km² Most of it is in semi-arid lands of Botswana, Zimbabwe, and South Africa Subjected to frequent climate extremes common in Southern Africa such as the 1991/2 droughts linked to ENSO and the 1999/2000 floods due to tropical cyclones.

3. AF 42 3 Location: Botswana

4. AF 42 4 PROJECT LOCATION

5. AF 42 5 PROJECT DESCRIPTION GENERAL OBJECTIVES 1. Establish past and present responses to climate variability and extreme events in the food and water sector. Food = agriculture (livestock and arable), wildlife, and forest products 2. To establish past and present status and factors influencing food production, water supply and demand in the Limpopo basin 3. Determine effects of climate change on water and food using a range of IPCC SRES based climate and national socio-economic scenarios

6. AF 42 6 5.Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin to climate change on the food and water sector 6.Determine the implications of impacts of climate change on indigenous adaptation capacity and options for mitigation against adverse impacts 7.Identify cost-effective and locally feasible adaptation options for the basin. 8.Contribute to increasing awareness to climate change issues in Southern Africa at different levels Description Continued

7. AF 42 7 EXPECTED OUTPUT 1. Enhanced capacity to conduct climate change assessment and work in multi-disciplinary teams. 2. A case study to support IPCC assessment on the linkages between past and current socio-economic status, resource availability, and future climatic changes impacts, vulnerability and adaptation capacity in an African environment. 3. Place specific climate change assessment results useful for policy makers and NGOs to support national communication, set adaptation strategies and international negotiations.

8. AF 42 8 Output continued Enhance capacity among policy makers and the private sector to consider measures to reduce vulnerability to climate change as avenues to accelerate long-term national development goals. An adaptation of complex linkages influencing food and water in the Limpopo basin Enhance insights on management of the basin which will be useful to other countries sharing the catchment Create data bases and locally relevant models that will be valuable for different sectors including improved estimates of emissions over Botswana.

9. AF 42 9 TECHNICAL APPROACH : OVERVIEW Questions underlying the technical approach What will be the impact of climate change on food and water in the basin? How vulnerable is food production/security and water supply to climate change? What is the adaptation capacity/options in the Limpopo basin?

10. AF 42 10 How do we address these questions 1. Establish past (20yrs) and current status by assessing trends and establishing relationships with influential factors e.g water supply and temperature. 2. Model future trends (20yrs) under climate change – using IPCC scenarios 3. Use findings in 1 and 2 above to determine vulnerability - discuss results with communities and other stakeholders

11. AF 42 11 4. Work out adaptation strategies and implementation schemes at different levels - all stakeholders 5. Communicate results widely in the basin at national, regional and international levels

12. AF 42 12 Some ideas from the Trieste workshop 1. Downscaling GCMs data, possibly using statistical methods 2. Use SimCLIM models 3. Use GIS and remote sensing images to assess vulnerability 4. Use of multi-criteria analysis to assess adaptation strategies

13. AF 42 13