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GREG BRUNO, LISANDRO TSAI, DREW OSIKA, MEILING LIU Presented: November 11, 2010 MCDONALDS CORP.

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Presentation on theme: "GREG BRUNO, LISANDRO TSAI, DREW OSIKA, MEILING LIU Presented: November 11, 2010 MCDONALDS CORP."— Presentation transcript:

1 GREG BRUNO, LISANDRO TSAI, DREW OSIKA, MEILING LIU Presented: November 11, 2010 MCDONALDS CORP.

2 HISTORY OF HOLDING Bought 200 shares of MCD on March 3 rd, 2009 @ $52.44 As of November 10 th, 2010, MCD trades @ $79.50 for an unrealized gain of 51.6% Currently paying $2.44 annual dividend/share 3% yield $15,900 total value represents 4.8% of portfolio’s holdings

3 COMPANY OVERVIEW Market leader in the global fast food industry Offers core menu with some geographic variations 32,478 restaurants in 117 countries (as of Dec. 31, 2009) Serves 58 million customers daily and employs 385,000

4 BUSINESS MODEL Franchise/Company-owned store mix Franchise generates consistent rent and royalties at high margins Company-owned generates full revenues but for lower margins with unpredictable costs Supplies food and materials to restaurants through approved 3 rd party operators

5 STRATEGY “Plan to win” (November 2004) Renewed focus on people, products, place, price and promotion 5-year NI growth of 75% (2005-09) vs. 14% (2000-05). 1 Refranchise restaurants to stabilize cash flows and increase margins Ongoing initiatives 2 Service enhancement Restaurant reimaging Menu innovation Grow aggressively in China 1.http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/McDonald%27s_%28MCD%29/Data/Net_Income_T o_Commonhttp://www.wikinvest.com/stock/McDonald%27s_%28MCD%29/Data/Net_Income_T o_Common 2.McDonald’s Corporation 10-K Statement for FY2009, Page 12.

6 REVENUE SHARE BY REGION

7 MAIN COMPETITORS Yum Brands, Inc. (YUM) Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. (WEN) Burger King Corporation Doctor's Associates Inc. Starbucks Corporation

8 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Fast Food Restaurant Industry Slow growth in the United States: 0.5% from 2005-2010 and 2.5% from 2010-2015 Consumers are choosing to buy lower-priced fast food items, cutting into revenue growth Consumers are more health conscious Domestic market saturation, oversees expansion Low concentration High competition

9 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Market Share in the US by Revenue

10 MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT Exceeded or met targets for: Long-term, constant currency financial targets of average annual Systemwide sales growth of 3% to 5% Average annual operating income growth of 6% to 7% Returned $16.6bn to shareholders under their $17 – $19bn target for 2007 through 2009 Management is placing much of their future growth in APMEA region Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042025/d10k.htm#toc 84160_8

11 ISSUES OF CONCERN Rising food prices Rising labor costs Currency Wars Earnings are affected by changes in particularly Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar. Collectively these currencies represent approximately 70% of company’s operating income outside of US. Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042 025/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

12 PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MEASURES Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042 025/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

13 PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MEASURES Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/0001193125100420 25/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

14 DUPONT ANALYSIS 200420052006200720082009 ROE16.04%17.18%22.93%15.67%32.23%32.43%

15 PUBLIC COMPARABLES Comparables 11/7/2010 Enterprise Value Market Cap TickerCompany NameEBITDAEBITSales(mil's $)P/EP/BVP/S MCDMcDonald's Corp.10.8x12.6x3.9x83,78120.0x6.4x3.6x SBUXStarbucks Corp.11.6x16.3x2.1x22,84727.5x6.5x2.2x YUMYum! Brands, Inc.10.8x14.1x2.4x24,05223.5x15.4x2.2x DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.9.2x10.5x1.5x91017.9xNM0.6x PZZAPapa John's International Inc.6.0x8.2x0.6x66013.2x3.4x0.6x JACKJack in the Box Inc.7.1x12.6x0.7x1,29418.6x2.3x0.6x DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.8.4x12.1x1.1x6,67019.0x3.6x0.9x SONCSonic Corp. 8.7x13.0x2.0x58118.5x26.0x1.0x McDonald's Corp. Min13.2x2.3x0.6x Normalized EPS4.02Mean19.7x9.5x1.2x BV per share12.34Median18.6x5.0x0.9x Revenue 23834Max27.5x26.0x2.2x Shares Outstanding1057Min $ $ 53.04 $ 28.37 $ 13.01 Revenue per share22.56Mean $ $ 79.41 $ 117.72 $ 26.31 Median $ $ 74.94 $ 62.22 $ 21.07 max $ $ 110.72 $ 320.61 $ 50.39 max - min $ 57.68 $ 292.24 $ 37.38

16 DISCOUNT RATE Discount Rate Cost of Equity7.39% Cost of Debt (Mid Investment Grade) 5.29% WACC6.01% Historic ROE (2004-2009)15.00% Discount Rate10.00% Discount Rate at lower end of acceptable range Low yield environment McDonalds transitioning to a higher margin business model McDonalds management committed to returning value to shareholders.

17 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS Year201020112012201320142015Terminal FCF 3,308.72 3,961.46 4,558.34 4,927.38 5,764.26 5,705.1298888.74 Discount Rate10.00% Present Value30083274342533653579322055820.12 Sum of PV:$75,692 # Shares1058 $ Per Share$71.53 +10%$78.68 -10%$64.37

18 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Sensitivity Analysis Discount Rate $71.538.00%9.00%10.00%11.00%12.00%13.00%14.00% Growth Rate 2.00% 70.5163.1257.5853.2749.8247.0044.64 2.50% 75.4966.7760.3755.4751.6148.4845.90 3.00% 81.4771.0263.5657.9653.6050.1247.27 3.50% 88.7776.0467.2360.7755.8351.9348.77 4.00% 97.9082.0771.5363.9958.3453.9450.43 4.50% 109.6489.4576.6067.7061.1856.1952.25 5.00% 125.2998.6682.6872.0364.4258.7254.28 5.50% 147.20110.5190.1277.1568.1761.5856.55 6.00% 180.06126.3099.4283.2972.5464.8659.10 6.50% 234.84148.42111.3890.8077.7068.6461.99

19 WEIGHTED VALUATION MethodWeightValuation DCF Valuation50%$71.53 P/E Multiple25%$77.17 P/BV Multiple25%$89.97 Weighted Valuation (per share):$77.55 -10%$69.79 Valuation$77.55 10%$85.30

20 RECOMMENDATION Hold our current position of 200 shares


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