1. 1 Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California, San Diego 9500 Gilman Drive #0424, La Jolla, CA 92093-0424, U.S.A E-Mail: bvjackson@ucsd.edu Tel: 858-534-3358 2 Institute of Mathematics and Physics, Aberystwyth University, Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth, SY23 3BZ Wales, U.K. Abstract At UCSD, At the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), remote-sensing analyses of the inner heliosphere have been regularly carried out using radio interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data for almost two decades. These analyses have measured and reconstructed three-dimensional (3D) solar wind structure throughout this time period where data have been available. These global results, especially using the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) IPS arrays, provide a forecast of solar wind parameters and a time-dependent inner boundary in density and velocity that is nearly complete over the whole heliosphere for the major part of each year, and with a time cadence of about one day. When using the IPS velocity analyses we can accurately convect outwards the solar surface magnetic fields and thus can provide values of the field (radial and tangential components) throughout the global volume. In the inner heliosphere the results of these 3D analyses of density, velocity, and vector magnetic field have been forecast and compared successfully with in-situ measurements obtained near Earth, STEREO, Mars, Venus, MESSENGER, and at the Ulysses spacecraft. The resulting precise time- dependent measurements are also used to provide an inner boundary of these parameters that can be further extrapolated outward to the edge of the heliosphere using current 3D-MHD modeling techniques. jet Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using Observations of Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Bernard V. Jackson 1, Hsiu-Shan Yu 1,P. Paul Hick 1, Andrew Buffington 1, Bernard V. Jackson 1, Hsiu-Shan Yu 1, P. Paul Hick 1, Andrew Buffington 1, Julio Mejia-Ambriz 1, Nolan Luckett 1, and Mario Bisi 2 1. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) The Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STELab) radio array, Japan; the new Toyokawa system is shown. USCD currently maintains a near-real-time website that analyzes and displays IPS data from this system. The UCSD analysis capability is also available at the CCMC and the Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC). 2. UCSD Real-Time IPS Web Pages Website at USCD http//:ips.ucsd.edu/ 500 km Density values for the solar wind can be inferred from the ‘normalized scintillation level’ (g-level) of observations of IPS relative to a nominal average. A greater variation in g-level amplitude generally means a higher density along the line of sight. Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) at meter-wave radio frequencies is the rapid variation in radio signal intensity from a compact source produced by small- scale (100-200 km) variations in the solar wind density. These density variations produce a pattern on the surface of the Earth of similar size and are transported across the Earth’s surface at “plane of the sky” solar wind propagation speeds. Speed values for the solar wind can be inferred from the intensity variation by correlating the pattern motion across the surface of the Earth and expressing this as a line-of-sight value. 3. CCMC and KSWC 3. CCMC and KSWC (see demo) IPS Real-Time Analysis IPS Real-Time Analysis Sample UCSD IPS real-time time-dependent analysis using STELab data (see demo). IPS real-time analysis with the UCSD time-dependent model and STELab data and a fit to ACE data. Fisheye Sky Sweep Later Fisheye Sky Map (showing extant day-prior radio source locations) Sample UCSD IPS real-time global time-dependent analysis using STELab data and CELIAS fit (see demo). Density ecliptic cutDensity forecast CCMC density and velocity forecast KSWC density and velocity analysis

2. Shown is a fisheye sky map showing a MEXART (Mexico) radio source inserted into the UCSD volumetric analysis that incorporates a line-of-sight weighting appropriate to provide an inclusion in the volume. For this data set during a quiet time period, the source blends into the background without significantly changing to the volume or the 2D sky map. The IPS 3D IPS reconstruction models are currently available and being run at several world locations. The IPS time-dependent model is run in near-real time daily at UCSD, the CCMC, and the KSWC as the data become available from STELab, Japan, for use in space-weather forecasting and for checking the 3D analysis. There are many ongoing projects currently underway that are intended to validate or enhance these 3D analyses. These projects include a) Comparison measurements at the locations in the inner heliosphere where spacecraft measure plasma parameters, b) Inclusion of other data sources besides those from STELab in order to provide greater coverage in time, c) Production of Faraday rotation-measure sky maps with extant transient densities and background magnetic fields, and d) The production of a time-dependent density and velocity inner boundary for use in 3D-MHD solar wind modeling. Sample Faraday rotation (FR) at times of variable fields from UCSD model for use in matching low heliospheric frequency FR. (a) Background field (b) Same field a few days later with a flux rope cylinder superimposed on the background field. 4. Inclusion of In-situData 4. Inclusion of In-situ Data 7. Summary Velocity Density (See Jackson et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256; Jackson et al., Solar Phys., 2013, (published on line ) doi: 10.1007/s11207-012-0102-x) The inclusion of in-situ data in the three-dimensional (3D) reconstructions from recent STELab IPS data provides very accurate “aftcasts”. There is less of a change from in-situ real- time measurements to those remotely-sensed, and the blend from in-situ measurements into the 3D tomography is seamless. 5. Magnetic Field Extrapolation Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. Dunn, T., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339–353. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Traceback to the Source Surface EIT 195 IPS Velocity Ecliptic cut Sample forecasts (see demo). Density and velocity forecasts incorporating CELIAS density in-situ measurements Also runs in real time (see demo). 6. Ongoing Projects CSSS Model Source Surface Presentation of Faraday rotation measurements of magnetic field from these analyses. The Current-Sheet Source-Surface (CSSS) extension to the potential field model provides a way for the IPS time-dependent tomographic analysis to incorporate the kinematic model mass and mass flux conservation into the extrapolation of the source surface field outward into the heliosphere. Projection onto the Source Surface Velocity aftcast correlation Density aftcast correlation Velocity forecast correlation Density forecast correlation (a) (b) Sample Lan Jian ( ) CCMC Study CR 2056-2063 In-Situ Tomographic analysis In-Situ (OMNI) Tomographic analysisIn-Situ Tomographic analysis Validation of IPS analyses - velocity, density, and magnetic field (archival) MEXART data incorporation into the IPS analysis. Time-dependent boundary in IHG coordinates With Without Inner boundaries for ( ) 3D-MHD. Comparison of the 3D-MHD results with WIND data. Inner boundaries for MS-FLUKSS 3D-MHD ( ). Comparisons of the 3D-MHD simulation results using time-dependent IPS boundaries with the OMNI data and UCSD kinematic solutions. Jian, L., et al., 2012, Solar Wind 13, Kona, Hawaii, 18-22 June 2012. Wu, S.T., et al.,2001, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 25089-25102. Kim, T.K., et al., AIP Confer- ence Proc. 1500, pp. 140-146.