1. Resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest Terry Chapin Bonanza Creek LTER

2. Alaska’s big transformations ~12000 yr BP: climate warmed, first people arrive, megafaunal extinction, loss of steppe tundra 8000 yr BP: arrival of Athabascan-like people 6000 yr BP: Shift to black spruce system

3. Alaska’s big transformations ~12000 yr BP: climate warmed, first people arrive, megafaunal extinction, loss of steppe tundra 8000 yr BP: arrival of Athabascan-like people 6000 yr BP: Shift to black spruce system 1850-1920 fur trading brought cash economy; culture challenged by missionaries; Euroamerican diseases decimated indigenous populations 1950 compulsory education, sedentization into permanent villages with costly infrastructure

4. Carpenter 2003 Identifying and managing critical transitions

5. Chapin et al. 2010

6. Drivers of change Climatic changes –Effects on ecosystems –Effects on disturbance regime Potential land-use changes Climate-disturbance interactions Socioeconomic changes –Rising disparities of power and economics –Resource development

7. March-June Average Temperature (C°) Alaska: 1901-2099 Rupp

8. 1980-1989Current 2030-20392060-2069 Soil temperature at 1 m

9. Landscape drying

10. Kenai bark beetle outbreak

11. Area burned in W. North America has doubled in last 40 years

12. Close connection between ecology and culture If we change ecology, what happens to culture? Mimi Chapin

13. Sources of vulnerability (Amplifying [positive] feedbacks) Thermokarst Feedbacks to the climate system –Carbon loss (wildfire) –Methane emissions (thermokarst) –Albedo (shorter snow season) Rural poverty –Rising energy costs –Urban migration

14. Chapin et al. 2005

15. Sources of Resilience (Stabilizing [negative] feedbacks) Permafrost-organic matter interactions Species-biogeochemistry-fire interactions Predator-prey cycles Landscape reorganization Fire-vegetation-climate albedo feedbacks Subsistence sharing networks Responsive political institutions (a need) Community-univ. partnerships (in progress)

16. Johnstone et al. 2010

17. Lloyd and Fastie Forests are expanding

18. Scheffer et al. 2013 Evidence of potential thresholds

19. Scheffer et al. 2013

20. Enhancing resilience Protect wetlands Manage landscape connectivity –Foster landscape reorganization Manage predator-prey cycles –Avoid predator pits, prey population booms Foster cultural integrity and subsistence Increase institutional responsiveness Foster local innovation and experimentation

21. Opportunities for transformation (Assess tradeoffs!!) Wood harvest to reduce fire risk, promote habitat conversion, and reduce diesel use Manage proactively for inevitable ecosystem transformations (e.g., grassland expansion) Foster diverse patterns of landscape reorganization Integrate local management of multiple subsistence resources