1. FROM SCENARIOS TO MANAGEMENT CLASSES: ECOLOGICAL COMPONENT DEMONSTRATION Presented by: Delana Louw (Rivers for Africa) 26 November 2013

2. 2 NWRCS integrated steps 7: Gazette class configuration 6: Resource Quality Objectives (EcoSpecs & water quality (user)) 5: Stakeholder process 4: Identification and evaluation of scenarios within IWRM 3: Quantify EWRs and changes in EGSA 2: Initiation of stakeholder process and catchment visioning 1: Delineate units of analysis and describe the status quo ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES TO SCENARIOS ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES TO SCENARIOS

3. 3  Need to answer the ‘what if’ questions  Express in terms of change in Ecological Category  Detailed process to predict changes in all the biophysical components per site and per scenario.  Then to integrate and demonstrate in systems context  Include in MC DSS process Determining ecological consequences of scenarios

4. Consequences Fish Physico-chemical Geomorphology Macroinvertebrates Riparian vegetation ECOSTATUS PES Consequences PREDICT CONSEQUENCES Model scenarios EWRs for PES and REC Provide Ecological Categories for each of components and PES Fish Physico-chemical Geomorphology Macroinvertebrates Riparian vegetation Above process undertaken for: Each EWR site & Each scenario THEN INTEGRATED (USING A WEIGHTED SYSTEM) TO PROVIDE A SYSTEMS CONSEQUENCE

5. Rural Urban Irrigation Rural Small Dams SFRs Industrial Nature Reserve Estuary Typical water resource system – status quo Trout farming, recreation, dry-land agric Forestry Releases down river for irrigation, urban and industrial Irrigation from canal Rural: Subsistence, settlements Gorge, protected area Irrigation. Town at estuary, industrial (canal & pipeline) Key biophysical sites (EWR sites) Desktop biophysical sites

6. Rural Urban Irrigation Rural Small Dams SFRs Industrial Nature Reserve Estuary PES E PES B PES D PES B/C PES B Estuary PES: E PES C River PES C REC D REC B REC C REC D EcoClassification 1 4 2 3 5 7 6 8

7. DRIVERS SCENARIOS Dam raisingIncreased irrigation Increased waste water EWR release A Release down river  B  Re-use C ; enlarge pipe & canal Sea outfall -10% droughts D ; Use existing canal (fix problems) -30%. Release additional water DS with EWR seasonality -10% droughts Scenario description: Matrix

8. Scenario description SCDescription ADam is raised and water released down river (canal obsolete). Increased irrigation to maximum potential. Waste water release in estuary increased. No EWR releases BStatus quo maintain but current waste water is re-used (i.e. decreased flow and better quality into estuary) CDam is raised, canal and pipe enlarged so river not used as a conduit. Increased irrigation and increased waste water, but conveyed into marine system (sea outfall). EWRs are released for the REC but the droughts are decreased by 10%. DDam is raised and existing canal system fixed. For the additional irrigation (cut to 30% from the maximum potential), the water is released downstream in the river, but with some seasonality built in. Increased waste water into estuary. EWR releases for REC but droughts decreased by 10%.

9. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES 1 Rural Urban Irrigation Rural Small Dams SFRs Industrial Nature Reserve Estuary Sc DSc CSc BSc ARECPES RECSc ASc BSc CSc D DDDEDD BBCBBB/C CCC/DCCC EDDEDE 3 5 7 8 All Sc maintain REC except for Sc A. Issues are no EWR releases, unseasonal releases DS. Sc B and C achieve the REC as they both include EWR releases and no unseasonal releases. Sc D shows some improvement Only Sc B and C achieves the REC as consist of removing of effluent All Sc maintain REC except for Sc A. Issues are no EWR releases, unseasonal releases DS.

10. Ecological protection relative to REC Degree to which ecological objectives (REC) are met 1 0 EWR 3 EWR 5 EWR 7 EST Sc B, C, D Sc A Sc B, C Sc D Sc B, C, D Sc A Sc B, C Sc A, D System Sc B, C Sc D Sc A !