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Heligman-Pollard Graduation: Adjusting for Local Variability in Parameter Estimation Anna Maria Altavilla, Angelo Mazza, Antonio Punzo Università di Catania.

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Presentation on theme: "Heligman-Pollard Graduation: Adjusting for Local Variability in Parameter Estimation Anna Maria Altavilla, Angelo Mazza, Antonio Punzo Università di Catania."— Presentation transcript:

1 Heligman-Pollard Graduation: Adjusting for Local Variability in Parameter Estimation Anna Maria Altavilla, Angelo Mazza, Antonio Punzo Università di Catania XLVII Riunione Scientifica della Società Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica Un mondo in movimento: approccio multidisciplinare ai fenomeni migratori Milano, 27-28 e 29 maggio 2010

2 Observed mortality patterns as instances of a stochastic process True but unknown mortality pattern q x

3 Observed mortality patterns as instances of a stochastic process

4

5

6 Variability of conditional distributions

7 Graduation

8 Parametric graduation: the Heligman-Pollard model

9 The Heligman-Pollard model: parameters estimation The classical estimation method consists in minimizing the quantity: where Ω is the set of observed ages. Our proposal is to consider the following weighted index: where

10 Which estimation method works better?

11 Results of the simulation

12 Conclusions


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