1. 1 PATFrame Workshop #2 Tool Concepts Dan Ligett Softstar Systems Ligett@SoftstarSystems.com (603) 672-0987 www.SoftstarSystems.com

2. 2 Decision Support System Risk tradeoff tool (a la Madachy/Valerdi for SE) Testing process tool Management process tool Leading Indicators tool Cost/Schedule/Effort/Risk/Quality tradeoff tool Game, Training tool, Simulation Risk Identification Risk Mitigation Tell testers when they're done Real Options Give advice on split to Live/Virtual/Constructive It’s a tool to help you win arguments

3. 3 Requirements Elicitation

4. 4 (~) Mix & Match -- Technology vs. Question Done?Invest?Improve?Healthy?Trade?Risk?Adapt? Defect Model Tool 1 Real OptionsTool 2 System Dynamics Tool 3 Leading Indicators Tool 4 Parametric Model Tool 5 Risk ModelTool 6 Architecture Modeling Tool N

5. 5 PATFrame Dimensions Can imagine thousands of different tools. For example: Real Options can be applied to the SUT or at the Test Infrastructure level 1) The question to answer 2) The technology to apply 3) SUT or Infrastructure 4) OT or DT 5) Now vs. 15/25 years from now 6) Army/Navy/AF 7) Program of Record vs. Rapid Acquisition 8) Space/Air/Sea/Land/Undersea 9) Degree of autonomy 10) Degree of netcentricity 11) Manned vs. unmanned 12) Complexity of SUT 13) Tester vs. Evaluator I don't claim that these dimensions are perfectly orthogonal.

6. 6 Need Feedback! Which of these might help you? Which are too hard? Which make no sense for you? What have we missed? DSS will be driven by MIT / UTA / USC research AND feedback we get to these tool concepts.

7. 7 Tool Concept #1 Question: – When am I Done testing? Technology: –Defect estimation model –Trade Quality for Delivery Schedule Inputs: –Defects discovered Outputs: –Defects remaining, cost to quit, cost to continue

8. 8 Tool 1, Data Input

9. 9 Tool 1, Trends

10. 10 Tool 1, Analysis

11. 11 Tool Concept #2 Question(s): – Should I invest $$$ in infrastructure? – (What should I test?) Technology: –Real Options Inputs: –Cost of each investment, decisions & risks Outputs: –Value of the investment, value of flexibility

12. 12 Tool 2, Data Input

13. 13 Tool 2, Data Input

14. 14 Tool 2, Analysis

15. 15 Tool Concept #3 Question: – Will XXX improve my testing process? Technology: –System Dynamics simulation Inputs: –Description of process Outputs: –Prediction of progress/quality/testing rate

16. 16 Tool Concept #4 Question: –Is my project healthy? Technology: –Leading Indicators Inputs: –Description of progress (available early ) Outputs: –Comparison to completed projects –Odds of success

17. 17 Tool 4, Trends

18. 18 Tool 4, Analysis

19. 19 Tool Concept #5 Question: –When will I finish testing? –Can I trade X for Y? Technology: –Parametric estimation model Inputs: –Size drivers, cost drivers Outputs: –Cost, Effort, Duration, odds of success

20. 20 Tool 5, Size Input

21. 21 Tool 5, Cost Driver Input

22. 22 Tool 5, Output per Phase

23. 23 Tool 5, Output per Activity

24. 24 Tool 5, Effort PDF

25. 25 Tool 5, Effort CDF

26. 26 Tool 5, Duration PDF

27. 27 Tool 5, Duration CDF

28. 28 Tool Concept #6 Question: – What can I do to mitigate risks? Technology: –Risk trade model (a la Madachy & Valerdi) Inputs: –Descriptions of system under test Outputs: –Risks prioritized –Mitigation strategies

29. 29 Tool 6, Data Input Madachy & Valerdi, 24 th COCOMO Forum, 11/4/2009

30. 30 Tool 6, Prioritized Risks Madachy & Valerdi, 24 th COCOMO Forum, 11/4/2009

31. 31 Tool 6, Mitigation Guidance Madachy & Valerdi, 24 th COCOMO Forum, 11/4/2009

32. 32 Tool Concept #N Question: –If the test instrumentation software is reconfigured during the adaptation, will X run-time requirement be met? –Can the test system automatically adapt in appropriate ways to changing data rates from external C4ISR systems? –Are the probes in the test system sufficient to detect and evaluate autonomous behavior X in the system-under-test? Technology: – Architectural modeling Inputs: –Models of SUT & infrastructure Outputs: –Simulation of testing architecture

33. 33 Remember, each of these Generalizes… The “Question” is just an example Could look at micro or macro questions Trade-off tool –Schedule/Cost/Quality/Risk/Training/etc. System Dynamics tool –Schedule/Defect Rates/Staffing Levels Prediction tool…

34. 34 Backup Slides

35. 35 Other Candidate Questions… My access to resource X ends next quarter. What work depends on that access? What testing can I perform in parallel? I can't analyze the test data in time to plan the next day's tests. What are my alternatives? Can I reschedule work? Can I take short cuts? Can I use heuristics to guide me? Which ones? Are Rev 12 of System X and Rev 314 of System Y compataible? System X has changed. What do I need to retest? Can I test Rev 12 of System X and Rev 314 of System Y simultaneously? How many of the tests are valid in this environment? System X and System Y can't currently operate within 2 miles of each other because of radio interference. What useful testing can I perform under that constraint? What remedies have worked in the past? Historically, how much has this delayed a comparable program?

36. 36 Other Candidate Questions II… After testing System X, we must wait 24 hours for the nerve gas to disipate. What useful testing can we perform during those 24 hours? Was Test #1234 performed with the prototype of System X, or the production version? Are the results of Run #123 substantially the same as Run #122? Test #1234 is failing. Trace that back, and tell me which requirements of which systems are not being met. I have more than the usual number of contractors/systems. How will that impact risk/schedule? What can I do to mitigate risk/reduce schedule? What are the odds that the SoS will work in the field? Has anyone ever faced this situation before? What's worked before? What's failed before? Why?

37. 37 Other Candidate Questions III… Is the test plan/case good enough? Is my test plan/case in compliance with the standards? Do I have the right people/tools/methodology? Where should I put my resources? Am I in compliance with XXX std? How many test cases should I have? What part of the program should I focus on next? Have I reached the point of diminishing returns in my testing/planning? How can I lower the risk?

38. 38 Other Candidate Questions IV… I need to prioritize my testing. What are some safe & easy tests I can start with, to get my team warmed up? I need to prioritize my testing. What tests should I perform to ensure that the SoS can meet its fundamental objectives? I need to prioritize my testing. I want to do the riskiest parts first -- where should I start? System X is not ready to be tested. What useful work can I do now without it? Things aren't going well. Can your system dynamics model help me understand the problem? What if we tweak the process by doing X? Your system dynamics model indicates that we can meet the schedule if we hire 10,000 people to analyze the test results. Can we try to model other solutions? Everything has been going as planned. But, now they need systems X, Y, and Z in Iraq right now, as is. What capabilities have been tested?

39. 39 Other Candidate Questions V… Remember that SoS we tested last year? Well, now we need to certify it with the F- 99 rather than the old F-35. Do we need to do anything more than edit the Word docs? What test should I do next? What part of my plan deviates the most from the normative framework? My program is in progress. How does it compare to the norm? Is this program/project/plan more risky than the norm? What are the odds of success? Do we have the right people? What is the most similar program performed in the last N years? How long did a similar project take?

40. 40 Tool 3, Causal Loop Model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_dynamics

41. 41 Tool 3, Stock & Flow Model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_dynamics

42. 42 Tool 3, Simulation Results http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systems_dynamics

43. 43 Tool 6, Cost CDF

44. 44 Tool 6, Cost PDF

45. 45 Requirements (Early!) V1 Costar manual vs. V7 Costar manual Eliciting, not soliciting Platform? Some of these are poor ideas? Some of these outside PATFrame scope? Some of these may be hard to build? But, need to start a discussion... …are any of these ideas close?