1. Strategic Plan for the TAO Project M. J. McPhaden, NOAA/PMEL Goal: To implement and maintain a global tropical moored buoy array in support of research on seasonal-to-decadal time scale climate variability and predictability.

2. Requirements for an Ocean Observing System in Support of Climate  To describe and detect climate variability and change.  To improve our understanding of processes that control the climate system.  To develop models for climate forecasting.  To initialize and validate climate forecasts.  To contribute to climate assessments.

3. Derives from memory contained in the bottom boundary conditions of the atmosphere Predictability on Seasonal-to- Decadal Time Scales  Ocean-atmosphere interactions (SST)  Land-atmosphere interactions (soil moisture, vegetation, etc.)  Cryosphere-atmosphere interactions (sea ice cover, permafrost, snow cover, etc.)

4. The TAO Project and Tropical Climate Studies

5. What Do We Need Next?

6. ENSO Prediction  Models show skill out to 12 months lead time  Forecast skill based on slow evolution of upper ocean thermal structure  Forecast skill limited by weather noise, model biases & errors in initial conditions. ENSO is the most predictable year-to-year climate variation on the planet Nino-3.4 Source: NCEP

7. Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts from June 2002 Warm Cold Adapted from IRI, 2002 Observations

8. Extending and Improving ENSO Prediction: The Role of Salinity  Formation of salt stratified “barrier layers” that trap heat near the surface  Consistent analysis of ocean temperature and sea level variations in assimilation systems  Improved ocean analyses of velocity field and its effects on SST ==> Better ocean initial conditions for coupled dynamical model forecasts. With T/S assimilation With T, no S assimilation Difference Equatorial Pacific Zonal Velocity

9. Salinity Measurements For ENSO Research and Forecasting Delcroix & McPhaden, 2002, JGR

10.  Full TAO/TRITON with SSS & selected sites with S(z) for uniform basin scale coverage & high temporal resolution  Argo (profiles every 10 days)  VOS for SSS and S(z) along selected tracks (monthly)  TAO/TRITON (& other) Research Vessels CTDs (semi-annual +)  Satellites (SMOS and Aquarius ) Salinity Measurements For ENSO Research and Forecasting

11. Stochastic Forcing & El Niño

12. Convective flare-ups occur every 30-60 days over the Indian Ocean. These flare- ups are characterized by towering cumulus clouds, rainfall, and westerly surface winds that propagate into the Pacific sector. MJO Convection Indian | Pacific | Atlantic Stochastic Forcing & El Niño The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) June 2001 Aug 2003 cloudy/wet clear/dry Cloudiness & Rainfall (OLR, 5°N-5°S)

13. El Niño amplitude, duration, timing West coast US rainfall Tropical storms and hurricanes Atmospheric Teleconnections from the Indian Ocean: Madden-Julian Oscillation

14. Role of the Indian Ocean in the Asian Monsoon One third of the world’s population is affected by the Asian Monsoons. Accurate prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall would be of tremendous socio-economic value. Very limited predictive skill at present.

15. Indian Ocean “Dipole”

16. Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and ENSO? December 1997 SST Anomalies

17. Indian Ocean Science Science Drivers Improved description, understanding and ability to predict:  Seasonal monsoon variability  Intraseasonal oscillations  Monsoon ENSO interactions  Indian Ocean “Dipole”  Decadal warming trends  Other

18. Indian Ocean Opportunity There is an increasingly organized international effort to develop an Indian Ocean component to the Global Ocean Observing system to support climate studies:  Compelling unanswered scientific questions;  Potential societal benefits (improved prediction of the monsoon rainfalls and teleconnections);  One of the most poorly sampled regions of the world ocean in terms of in situ observations;  Growing investments from India (2 new ships & major buoy program initiative planned) and Japan (new Asian Monsoon Observing Initiative @ $300M over 10 yrs);  Summit on Earth Observations (July 2003).

19. Draft Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array First Session of CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel 23-27 February 2004 Pune, India

20. RV Sagar Kanya Cruise 1 Oct-4 Nov 2004 Karwar-Tuticorin, India  3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring  1.5°S, 0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E  ATLAS enhanced with Sonteks (u/v), salinity, rainfall, SW; in addtion, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring  Expect to continue and expand with Indian Institutions (NIO, NIOT, DOD, etc).

21. Ocean Sites for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies (OceanSITES) OceanSITES program addresses requirements for: 1) Improved surface flux estimates; 2) Interdisciplinary time series reference sites.

22. Sustained Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays and Process Studies 1) Arrays provide a) long time & large scale geographic context for short term intensive process-oriented field studies; b) platforms for additional measurements; c) opportunities for leveraging of resources. 2) Process studies may provide new information by which to guide modifications or upgrades of sustained measurement arrays. Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE) Pacific Upwelling and Mixing Processes (PUMP)

23. Tide Gauge Network45 % complete Tide Gauge Network45 % complete 3˚x3˚ Argo Profiling Float Array25% complete 3˚x3˚ Argo Profiling Float Array25% complete 5˚x5˚ Surface Drifting Buoy Array35 % complete 5˚x5˚ Surface Drifting Buoy Array35 % complete Moored BuoyExistingPlanned Moored BuoyExistingPlanned Ocean Reference StationExistingPlanned Ocean Reference StationExistingPlanned High Resolution XBT and Flux LineExistingPlanned High Resolution XBT and Flux LineExistingPlanned Frequently Repeated XBT LineExistingPlanned Frequently Repeated XBT LineExistingPlanned Carbon Inventory & Deep Ocean Line Global Survey @ 10 years Carbon Inventory & Deep Ocean Line Global Survey @ 10 years Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Height, Surface Vector Wind, and Ocean Color from Space Source: NOAA/OGP Towards a Sustained Global Ocean Observing System

24. 1)The long term goal of the TAO project is to implement and maintain a global tropical moored buoy array in support of research on seasonal-to-decadal time scale climate variability and predictability. Summary 2) Development of the sustained tropical moored buoy array will build on TAO/TRITON and PIRATA and be integrated with GOOS and GCOS efforts. 3)Enhancements to existing Pacific and Atlantic arrays should include: a) Full sea surface salinity and selected S(z) [Pacific] b) Implementation of Flux Reference Time Series Sites c) Coordinated interdisciplinary measurements d) Participation in future process-oriented field studies 4) A major new initiative involves expansion into the Indian Ocean in partnership with Japan, India, and possibly other countries in the region.