1. Planning Amid Uncertainty: Shaping the Future Australian Defence Force Domination of the Asia-Pacific by a hegemonic Power by Siri Mon Chan Australian Defence Force Academy 18 May 2009

2. Purposes  Describe the main characteristics of a regional hegemonic scenario  Identify the main drivers/facts that might bring it about  Access how well the guidance in Force 2020 and Joint Operations for the 21 st Century would equip the ADF to respond

3. Characteristics of Future Scenario  The rise of other powers (China, India, Japan and Russia  China is highly likely to become a regional hegemonic power by 2020-2030 due to; Economic Political Diplomatic, and Military power

4. People’s Liberation Army (PLA)  Deng Xiaoping’s Military doctrine of “Fighting a people’s war under modern conditions” Positional Warfare, Active Defence  Post-Deng Strategy of “Fighting a future war under hi-tech conditions  Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) and military of intelligence

5. Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in PLA  Learnt the concept of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in 1970s from the Soviet Union  Brought to prominent by military actions in 1990s with new dimensions of combat;  The Desert Storm (1990)  Kosovo War (1999)

6. Defence Capability Development  Hi-tech Warfare capability People’s War (people’s power) can do little under the conditions of  Lightening air and missile surgical strikes  Sustained air, missile, and electronic bombardment as in Kosovo in 1999  Information Warfare (IW) Capability Victory depends not on the number of tanks and warship but on a Country’s computers, satellites and software

7. Putting RMA into Practice  Qualitative Military Downsizing PLA to 500,000 by 2002 To 200,000 by 2005 ( From Quantity to Quality)  Hi-tech capability developments Super computer (Shuguang 3000)  Capable of 403.2 billion cycles per-second (GHz)  Divisions and Regiments downgrades to Brigades and Battalions ( For better mobility and quick deployment)  The group army-brigade-battalion

8. Other Capability Developments  The second-strike Nuclear capability  Creates offensive air powers  Develop a blue-water Navy  Asymmetric Warfare capability IT Warfare (Cyber Warfare)  Building a “Counter-revolution in military affairs" Warfare using IT warfare Not only interrupt enemy’s information network, to actually win Information war  Missile attack capability

9. ADF Capability Developments (Force 2020)  Provide a cursory glance at strategic landscape of 2020  Identifies currency of operations, maintenance of a high operational tempo, interoperability, and Future War Fighting concepts  Fails to recognize the rise of hegemonic China

10. ADF’s Capability Developments (Joint Operations for the 21 st Century)  ADF perform a broader role in conventional warfighting  National Effects-based approach Economic, military and social dimensions  Effects-based operation (EBO) Application of military and non-military capabilities

11. Network-Centric Warfare  Network-centric Warfare  Integrated response Capability  Multidimensional Manoeuvre (MDM) Reach, know, exploit  Professional Mastery Experiences, education, training

12. Other Capability developments  Deployable, Integrated and Interoperable, Survival and robust, Ready and responsive, Agile and Versatile, Precise and Discriminating, Lethal and Non- lethal  Seamless force, Fully integrated and interoperable with other agencies, coalition partners and allies

13. Suggestions  To emphasize more on RMA, Information warfare and Asymmetric Warfare capability than Conventional warfare Capability (Defence 2009 also focus on conventional military force)  Utilize other measures- such as 3Ds  Strengthen strategic alliances with other powers (Japan, India, ASEAN) to hedge China’s hegemonic dominance

14. Thank you. Questions & Comments