1. “Mobility into and out of poverty in 14 European countries” Author-Presenter: Eirini Andriopoulou ATHENS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC STUDIES paper presented in EPUNet 2006 Conference 9th of May 2006

2. Research Questions Do poverty exit rates differ among the EU Member-States and how much do they depend on the duration of poverty spells? Unconditional and conditional exit probabilities To what extent poverty is recurrent? Re-entry rates to poverty In which income group do the poor find themselves when they escape poverty and what is the evolution of their income in the years that follow the poverty spell? Mobility matrices What are the main events (income, demographic) associated with transitions into and out of poverty? Event analysis

3. Data User’s Database (UDB) of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) produced by the Living Conditions Unit (E-2) of the Social and Regional Statistics and Geographical Information System Directorate (E) of EUROSTAT in Luxembourg. Time frame: 1994-2001 (8 waves) Countries: 14 countries (Sweden excluded, Data from national panels for Germany, Luxembourg and the UK)

4. Definitions  Income Reconstruction of the household income, so as to match the timeframe of the income and the other ECHP variables  Poverty line 60% of the national median equivalised household income per capita Using: Modified OECD Scale Deflated incomes in ppp Cross-sectional weight Grossing-up factor for EU totals

6. Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue)

7. Time dimensions of poverty Duration Recurrence (Handout: Table 1) Spell Analysis Four poverty profiles:  Transient: only once and for one year  “Mid-term” poor: only once for two years  Recurrent: at least twice poor but no more than 2 years  Permanent poor: 3yrs+

8. CountryAnnual exit rateAnnual entry rate A38.075.82 B36.866.48 D38.245.19 DK44.496.22 E39.099.54 EL32.109.39 F32.606.55 FIN33.015.60 I33.758.01 IRL31.459.16 L30.374.23 NL46.245.07 P29.697.80 UK34.137.95 _EU35.276.99 Total number of individuals at risk of exiting/entering poverty140,831706,259 Unconditional entry and exit rates Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue)

9. Conditional to the duration of poverty entry probabilities (Handout: Table 2) Re-entry rates to poverty (Handout: Table 3) Conditional probabilities

10. In which income group do the poor end-up when they escape poverty? Income Group Country60%-79%80%-99%100%+Total Number of spell endings A55.6821.2023.12100.001,801 B62.0217.6220.36100.001,931 D60.7720.6218.61100.003,802 DK57.7622.7719.47100.001,285 E51.2225.0623.72100.006,673 EL51.0325.2623.72100.005,008 F67.0719.1413.79100.004,072 FIN62.9220.5716.51100.001,043 I51.0224.3424.64100.006,840 IRL66.0219.0614.92100.002,583 L75.4216.568.01100.001,004 NL57.2622.0820.65100.002,592 P58.5222.5218.96100.005,082 UK60.4019.3420.26100.004,156 _EU58.0221.6720.31100.0047,872

11. Mobility around the poverty line and among income groups Mobility Indices Mobility Matrices (Handout: Table 4)

12. Event analysis for poverty spell beginnings and endings The Algorithm of the event analysis Five step analysis (Handout: Figure 1) Equivalised Household Income per Capita

13. Results Poverty entries (2 categories of events) (Handout: Table 5) Poverty entries (3 categories of events) (Handout: Table 6) Poverty exits (2 categories of events) (Handout: Table 7) Poverty exits (3 categories of events) (Handout: Table 8)

14. Conclusions 1.Income events more associated both with entries and exits than demographic events. 2. Demographic events are more important in Finland, Denmark, UK and Luxembourg, while income events are stronger in Mediterranean countries. 3.When adding employment events the importance of pure income events declines in many cases more than 20%. 4.Employment events seem to be more related to poverty exits than unemployment events with poverty entries.

15. Limitations of the Event Analysis Does not allow for multiple events to happen at the same time: identifies only one main event associated with spell beginning/ending Controls only for changes e.g. in social benefits not for level Focuses on micro level It is not a substitute for the multivariate analysis but it supplements it very well

16. Thank you very much for your presence and attention! Eirini Andriopoulou peace@aueb.gr

18. Additional – Emergency Tables

19. Data – Country participation COUNTRIES FULL ECHP DATA FORMAT ECHP DATA FORMAT DERIVED FROM NATIONAL SURVEYS Belgium and Netherlands Denmark, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Portugal 1994-2001- Austria1995-2001- Finland1996-2001- Germany1994-19961994-2001 (GSOEP) Luxembourg1994-19961995-2001 (PSELL) United Kingdom1994-19961994-2001 (BHPS) Sweden-1997-2001 (SLCS) (Cross Sectional Data Only) Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue) (EPUNet 2004a, p. 1)

20. Year of Survey CountryWave 1Wave 2Wave 3Wave 4Wave 5Wave 6Wave 7Wave 8 A 0.009.6418.7226.2932.8239.2343.73 B0.007.8015.3422.8530.1736.9742.3748.54 D (SOEP)0.005.7611.2916.3522.1426.7731.3835.38 DK0.0011.2023.5533.5442.5348.2552.4454.87 E0.0012.3320.6329.7737.4542.3847.9352.05 EL0.009.0816.9224.2032.9140.2143.8645.97 F0.0010.3516.7625.4932.5237.7843.3946.17 FIN 0.008.3320.5128.4147.7650.67 I0.004.979.5618.2225.0830.4036.1042.71 IRL0.0015.9729.1936.9644.0852.6562.5967.48 L (PSELL) 0.0019.4726.9033.3938.9043.9947.78 NL0.008.3013.6320.5627.7934.3542.1048.94 P0.004.329.9115.0620.3124.6828.6831.80 UK (BHPS)0.008.6913.1316.7920.2723.7227.3030.62 Mean0.008.5315.1323.3731.3037.5144.6648.38 Mean dif 8.536.608.247.936.217.163.72 Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue) Data – Attrition rates

21. Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue) Data – Cases available for analysis Year of Survey Country 19941995199619971998199920002001Total A 9,5799,2498,7338,1847,7397,1696,87357,526 B9,1498,8398,3987,9167,4086,9706,5605,98561,225 D16,28416,68216,30415,94215,25114,86014,34013,969123,632 DK7,6937,2006,5686,2045,6665,4275,2225,13649,116 E23,02520,70819,71218,16716,72816,22215,04814,320143,930 EL16,32115,30914,38413,49112,29811,65411,38311,244106,084 F18,91617,40816,98515,75814,84914,10913,36813,263124,656 FIN 11,21410,8889,9739,5877,5527,49856,712 I21,93421,75721,50620,07419,31018,62117,60216,162156,966 IRL14,58512,57710,8879,9529,0007,7216,2765,56576,563 L 8,1926,8057,0936,6476,5856,1846,30647,812 NL13,02912,79112,89712,58412,37312,51712,44612,079100,716 P14,70614,82614,62314,42814,08513,79813,48113,285113,232 UK12,84412,50812,54712,39612,43212,28112,18612,05199,245 Total168,486178,376182,079173,626164,204158,091148,817143,7361,317,415

22. Poverty indices (year: 2000) Ctry Headcount ratioCtryPoverty gapCtry Square poverty gapCtry Modified Sen index NL10.39L2.22L0.68L4.29 D11.37D2.52FIN0.95FIN4.87 DK11.47FIN2.52D0.98D4.89 FIN11.57DK2.94DK1.19DK5.67 L12.01NL2.98B1.34NL5.80 A12.24A3.07A1.39A5.95 B14.44B3.19NL1.49B6.14 F15.71F3.93F1.70F7.52 UK17.18UK5.03IRL2.01UK9.56 _EU17.77IRL5.24UK2.34IRL9.80 E19.46_EU5.25_EU2.47_EU9.97 I19.54P5.75P2.67P10.85 P20.09E5.83E2.87E11.02 EL20.33I6.33EL2.93I11.92 IRL20.58EL6.36I3.16EL11.93 Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue)

23. Age Groups Ctry0-1516-6465+ A12.539.1725.34 B11.3111.8628.41 D12.9410.4513.53 DK6.198.5832.30 E25.7016.7824.18 EL17.7216.9433.84 F17.4113.7621.43 FIN5.3410.1526.20 I25.2218.4418.58 IRL22.0015.9246.01 L16.9611.358.55 NL14.1410.424.26 P26.8415.5731.87 UK22.6613.0725.24 _EU20.7315.7322.68 Headcount ratio by age groups Source: ECHP UDB (Dec 2003 - 2nd issue)

24. Poor’s income distribution Income Group Country0%-19%20%-39%40%-59%Total Number of poor A7.3418.8473.82100.002,024 B6.0115.7678.23100.002,154 D6.0518.2275.72100.003,947 DK4.8619.9375.22100.001,625 E9.5422.3668.11100.007,136 EL10.5621.3468.11100.005,494 F6.4617.7475.79100.004,724 FIN9.8417.7972.37100.001,643 I9.9722.8867.15100.007,052 IRL3.4016.7879.82100.003,432 L2.6710.8186.52100.001,159 NL14.9017.8767.23100.002,718 P6.1319.3374.53100.004,848 UK7.9522.3369.72100.004,311 _EU7.9620.2871.76100.0052,267

25. Household Head by Gender CountrymalefemaleTotal A50.8949.11100.00 B72.0028.00100.00 D60.4839.52100.00 DK58.8641.14100.00 E80.6919.31100.00 EL76.1623.84100.00 F75.4124.59100.00 FIN57.4342.57100.00 I75.4324.57100.00 IRL71.5428.46100.00 L69.8730.13100.00 NL68.0631.94100.00 P69.3030.70100.00 UK56.0943.91100.00 _EU67.0632.94100.00

26. Distribution of poor population to household types Household Type Ctry 123456Total A21.1614.9811.605.1726.8720.23100.00 B15.0822.8111.159.3431.679.95100.00 D24.2716.0711.7010.4928.449.02100.00 DK30.5534.979.483.3913.927.69100.00 E3.4011.9513.843.2736.2731.27100.00 EL9.0223.9718.142.0625.7621.05100.00 F14.0617.1010.899.0836.0612.83100.00 FIN45.6014.888.374.1321.275.75100.00 I8.198.0917.623.4834.5228.11100.00 IRL16.005.637.459.5943.4117.92100.00 L9.2310.8710.178.1445.4216.17100.00 NL15.9810.8310.9813.3235.9112.98100.00 P8.2016.8815.594.5331.4923.31100.00 UK18.8215.078.9616.5832.857.72100.00 _EU14.5214.4412.748.5732.8016.94100.00