1. INFORMATION SECURITY MANAGEMENT L ECTURE 7: R ISK M ANAGEMENT I DENTIFYING AND A SSESSING R ISK You got to be careful if you don’t know where you’re going, because you might not get there. – Yogi Berra

2. Discretionary Access Control (DAC) Security Model The owner of an object controls who and what may access it. Access is at the owner’s discretion. Most personal computer operating systems are designed based on the DAC model

3. Data classification scheme/model – Data owners classify the information assets – Reviews periodically Security clearance structure – Subjects labeled by level of security clearance (privilege) – Objects labeled by level of classification/sensitivity Mandatory Access Control (MAC) Security Model

4. Role-based Access Control (RBAC) Security Model Nondiscretionary Controls An improvement over the mandatory access control (MAC) security model Role-based controls Task-based controls Users are given roles with this role determining access

5. Introduction Information security departments are created primarily to manage IT risk In any well-developed risk management program, two formal processes are at work – Risk identification and assessment – Risk control

6. Risk Management “The process of determining the maximum acceptable level of overall risk to and from a proposed activity, then using risk assessment techniques to determine the initial level of risk and, if this is excessive, developing a strategy to ameliorate appropriate individual risks until the overall level of risk is reduced to an acceptable level.”

7. Knowing Yourself & The Enemy Identifying, examining and understanding the information and how it is processed, stored, and transmitted Identifying, examining, and understanding the threats facing the organization’s information assets

8. Communities of Interest: All Play a role Information Security Information Technology Management and Users

9. Risk Terminology Asset & Asset valuation Threat Vulnerability Exposure Risk

10. Risk Terminology

11. Risk Identification Figure 8-1 Risk identification process Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning

12. Asset Identification Identify organization’s information assets Inventory: software/hardware, and networking elements More easily tracked (automated inventory system) People, procedures, data and info May take more time / ongoing

13. Creating an Inventory of Information Assets Determine which attributes of each information asset should be tracked Potential asset attributes – Name, IP address – MAC address, asset type – Physical location, logical location – Controlling entity

14. Creating an Inventory of Information Assets (cont’d.) Identifying people, procedures and data assets Sample attributes – People - Position name/number/ID – Procedures – Description/Intended purpose – Data – Classification & Owner/creator/manager

15. Asset: Classifying and Categorizing Determine whether the asset categories are meaningful Inventory should also reflect each asset’s sensitivity and security priority Classification categories must be comprehensive and mutually exclusive Not one schema for all assets

16. Asset Valuation Assign a relative value: – As each information asset is identified, categorized, and classified Goal: assign value to encompass both tangible and intangible costs

17. Importance of Assets List the assets in order of importance Achieved by using a weighted factor analysis worksheet

18. Risk Terminology

19. Threat Identification Any organization typically faces a wide variety of threats

20. Threat Assessment Each threat presents a unique challenge to information security Each must be further examined to determine its potential to affect the targeted information asset

21. Threat Identification (cont’d.) Source: Adapted from M. E. Whitman. Enemy at the gates: Threats to information security. Communications of the ACM, August 2003. Reprinted with permission Weighted ranks of threats to information security

22. Vulnerability Assessment – Review every information asset for each threat – Leads to the creation of a list of vulnerabilities that remain potential risks to the organization Vulnerabilities are specific avenues that threat agents can exploit to attack an information asset

23. Vulnerability Assessment Management of Information Security, 3rd ed. Table 8-4 Vulnerability assessment of a DMZ router Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning

24. The TVA Worksheet At the end of the risk identification process, a list of assets and their vulnerabilities has been developed List serves as the starting point for the next step in the risk management process - risk assessment Another list prioritizes threats facing the organization based on the weighted table discussed earlier

25. The TVA Worksheet (cont’d.) Table 8-5 Sample TVA spreadsheet Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning

26. Introduction to Risk Assessment The goal is to create a method to evaluate the relative risk of each listed vulnerability Figure 8-3 Risk identification estimate factors Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning

27. Likelihood The overall rating of the probability that a specific vulnerability will be exploited Using the information documented during the risk identification process, you can assign weighted scores based on the value of each information asset

28. Percentage of Risk Mitigated by Current Controls If a vulnerability is fully managed by an existing control, it can be set aside If it is partially controlled, estimate what percentage of the vulnerability has been controlled

29. Uncertainty It is not possible to know everything about every vulnerability The degree to which a current control can reduce risk is also subject to estimation error Uncertainty is an estimate made by the manager using judgment and experience

30. Risk Determination – Example 1 Asset A has a value of 50 and has one vulnerability, which has a likelihood of 1.0 with no current controls. Your assumptions and data are 90% accurate Risk: [Asset Value(AV) x Likelihood(L)] – Controls(AV*L) + Uncertainty (AV*L) Risk = [50 x 1.0] – 0.0(50*1.0) + 0.1(50*1.0) = 55

31. Risk Determination – Example 2 Asset B has a value of 100 and has two vulnerabilities: vulnerability #1 has a likelihood of 0.5 with a current control that addresses 50% of its risk vulnerability # 2 has a likelihood of 0.1 with no current controls. Your assumptions and data are 80% accurate Risk: [Asset Value(AV) x Likelihood(L)] – Controls(AV*L) + Uncertainty (AV*L) Risk1 = [100 x 0.5] – 0.5(100*0.5) + 0.2(100*0.5) = 35 Risk2 = [100 x 0.1] – 0.0(100*0.1) + 0.2(100*0.1) = 12

32. Qualitative Risk Analysis Evaluate opinions, feelings, ideas Scenarios Brainstorming Delphi technique Storyboarding Focus groups Surveys, questionnaires, checklists One-on-one meetings, interviews

33. Qualitative Risk Assessment For a given scope of assets, identify: Vulnerabilities Threats Threat probability (Low / medium / high) Impact (Low / medium / high) Countermeasures

34. Example of Qualitative Risk Assessment ThreatImpactInitial Probability Counter- measure Residual Probability Flood damage HLWater alarmsL TheftHLKey cards, surveillance, guards L Logical intrusion HMIntrusion prevention system L

35. Quantitative Risk Assessment Extension of a qualitative risk assessment. Metrics for each risk are: Asset value: replacement cost and/or income derived through the use of an asset Exposure Factor (EF): portion of asset's value lost through a threat (also called impact) Single Loss Expectancy (SLE) = Asset ($) x EF (%)

36. Quantitative Risk Assessment Metrics (cont.) Annualized Rate of Occurrence (ARO) Probability of loss in a year, % Annual Loss Expectancy (ALE) = SLE x ARO

37. Example of Quantitative Risk Assesment Theft of a laptop computer, with the data encrypted Asset value: $4,000 Exposure factor ? 100% SLE, ARO, ALE ? SLE = 4000 * 100% = 4,000 ARO = 10% chance of theft / year ALE = 10% * 4000 = 400

38. Example of Quantitative Risk Assesment Dropping a laptop computer and breaking the screen Asset value: $4,000 Exposure factor ? 50% SLE, ARO, ALE ? SLE = $4,000 x 50% = $2,000 ARO = 25% chance of damaging / year ALE = 25% x $2,000 = $500

39. Qualitative vs. Quantitative

40. Documenting the Results of Risk Assessment Goals of the risk management process – To identify information assets and their vulnerabilities – To rank them according to the need for protection In preparing this list, a wealth of factual information about the assets and the threats they face is collected The final summarized document is the ranked vulnerability risk worksheet

41. Management of Information Security, 3rd ed. Table 8-9 Ranked vulnerability risk worksheet Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning