1. An overview of the Doha Development Agenda CARSTEN FINK Trade Policy and WTO Accession A Training of Trainers Course for Russia and the CIS March 22, 2006

2. Overview Why negotiate at the WTO? The Doha Mandate Key negotiating milestones Cancun Ministerial Meeting (2003) July 2004 Framework Agreement Hong Kong Ministerial Meeting (2005) Key negotiating issues across sectors What’s next?

3. Why negotiate at the WTO? Compared to unilateral liberalization, reciprocal trade liberalization holds certain political economy advantages Binding trade policy under international law removes uncertainty Why at the multilateral level? Liberalization is non-discriminatory (MFN) Subsidies can only be addressed meaningfully at the multilateral level

4. The Launch of the DDA Doha Ministerial Conference (Nov 2001) Political context: Two months after September 11, 2001 Failed Seattle Ministerial Conference in 1999 Development dimension: results of Uruguay Round considered as “unbalanced” by developing countries In-built negotiating mandate in some areas (agriculture, services) Traditional interest in more liberal market access

5. Negotiating mandate Core negotiating areas: Agriculture Non-agricultural market access (NAMA) Services TRIPS (geographical indications/public health) WTO rules (e.g., anti-dumping, subsidies) Dispute Settlement Understanding* Trade and the Environment * Not part of the Single Undertaking

6. Other elements agreed to in Doha Declaration on TRIPS and Public Health Consider negotiations on the four so-called Singapore issues (investment, competition policy, transparency in government procurment, trade facilitation) Work program on outstanding implementation issues Special and differential treatment (SDT) for developing countries

7. Why (initial) focus on agriculture? … even though it provides less than 4% of global GDP and 9% of int’l merchandise trade Arguably, most distorted segment of trade: OECD manufacturing tariffs have fallen by 9/10ths over the past 60 years to <4%, while agricultural protection has risen Agric. applied (bound) tariffs now average nearly 5 (10) times manufactures tariffs globally Northern subsidies depressing world prices Comparative advantage of developing countries, poor people rely on farming for a living

8. Cancun Ministerial Conference Not much progress between 2001 and 2003, most negotiating deadlines missed Glimmer of hope: August 2003 Decision on TRIPS and Public Health Failed Ministerial Conference: No consensus on Singapore issues No progress towards modalities in agriculture Cotton initiative

9. July 2004 Framework Agreement Political will to make progress in the negotiations Key elements: Framework agreements in agriculture and NAMA Ambitious and expeditious treatment of cotton within agricultural negotiations Launch of negotiations on trade facilitation, no negotiations on other 3 Singapore issues

10. Hong Kong Ministerial Conference Initial goal: full modalities in agriculture and NAMA, bringing the round close to the finishing line Fall 2004: agriculture offers by the key players (US, EC, G-20, G10) But no consensus in sight, G-20/US argue that EC should improve its agriculture offer; EC first wants to see movement in NAMA & services WTO DG Pascal Lamy lowered ambition for the Ministerial Conference (but not for the DDA)

11. Hong Kong Ministerial Conference Progress on TRIPS issues prior to Ministerial Key elements of the ministerial text: Duty-free/quota-free access for Least Developed Countries Removal of export subsidies by 2013 Agreement on a fast-track approach for cotton Greater detail on framework for full modalities in agriculture and services Plurilateral negotiations in services (to complement the bilateral request and offer process)

12. The three pillars in agriculture Market access Agree on a formula for tariff reductions Find agreement on the number of sensitive products Special products/special safeguard mechanism for developing countries Export competition Phase-out of export subsidies Disciplines on food aid, export credits Domestic support Agree on a formula for cuts in domestic support Define what constitutes ‘trade-distorting’ support

13. Key issues in NAMA Agree on a formula for tariff reductions Sectoral initiatives (e.g., recent US-Swiss proposal on pharmaceutical products) Flexibilities for developing countries Treatment of non-tariff barriers Erosion of non-reciprocal trade preferences

14. Key issues in services Fundamental difference to agriculture/NAMA: negotiations proceed on a bilateral/request offer basis Process has produced ambitious requests, but existing offers are characterized as unambitious, implying little if any actual liberalization Plurilateral requests tabled in February/March 2006

15. Interest groups in the DDA defensive interest offensive interest

16. Recently acceded countries Recently acceded countries have made ambitious commitments across all sectors Small, if any, gaps between bound and applied policies Further liberalization perceived as “unfair” and premature Ministerial texts says that “… this situation will be taken into account in the negotiations”, but so far little specifics on flexibilities

17. What’s next? Pessimistic view: if progress wasn ’ t possible before/at Hong Kong, why expect a breakthrough now? Key deadlines: Full modalities in agriculture & NAMA by April 30, 2006; comprehensive draft schedules by July 31, 2006 Revised offers in services by July 31, 2006; final commitments by October 31, 2006 “ Firm ” deadline: expiry of US Trade Promotion Authority in mid-2007