1. Monetary Policy Report July 2009

2. Deep economic downturn Repo rate cut to 0.25 per cent Low repo rate over a long time Inflation close to target Signs of a turnaround Positive growth in 2010

3. Low repo rate over a long period of time Per cent, quarterly average Source: The Riksbank Note. Uncertainty bands calculated using historical forecasting errors.

4. Deep economic downturn GDP in Sweden, annual percentage change Note. GDP at recipient prices prior to 1951 from Edvinsson (2005). Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. Low resource utilisation during entire forecast period Unemployment, per cent of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank’s forecasts. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

6. Signs of a turnaround Purchasing managers’ index, index above 50 indicates growth in industry Sources: Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd and Swedbank Note. Yellow dot refers to outcomes that were not available at the monetary policy meeting.

7. Financial markets functioning better Basis spread, basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank Note. Difference between 3-month interbank rate and expected policy rate (basis spread)

8. GDP growth will accelerate in 2010 Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

9. Inflation close to the target Annual percentage change Note. Broken lines refer to the Riksbank’s forecasts. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

10. Uncertainty in the forecast Interest rate could become higher… Weaker productivity Faster recovery abroad …or lower Higher loan losses Lower rate of wage increase

11. Lending at a fixed interest rate The repo rate has in practice reached its lower limit The situation in the financial markets is still not completely normal Lending with a fixed interest rate increases scope for monetary policy to have the intended effect Contributes to lower interest rates for companies and households

12. Repo rate path a forecast – not a promise Per cent, quarterly average Source: The RiksbankNote. Uncertainty bands calculated using historical forecasting errors.

13. Deep economic downturn Repo rate cut to 0.25 per cent Low repo rate over a long period of time Inflation close to the target Signs of a turnaround Positive growth in 2010