1. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to ENSEMBLES Andy Morse, Cyril Caminade and Anne Jones Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom A.P.Morse@liv.ac.uk

2. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Running Order Introduction Malaria verification – ENSEMBLES stream II – limited area Climate verification – ENSEMBLES stream II - all Africa Summary and Way Forward

3. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Introduction Normally use BSS and ROCSS to work with probabilistic data Running RMSE, ACC and MSSS deterministically on ensemble mean Developed/modified scripts for skill scores in NCAR Command Language (NCL) – share & cross validate? Work not complete – will report via ENSEMBLES website

4. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Introduction – ROCSS malaria modelling Tier-2 malaria runs - ROC Skill Scores Above Median Event DEMETER driven LMM. Areas of high interannual variability were selected and persisted forecast skill was removed from the scores. Jones, A. and Morse, A. (2007) CLIVAR Exchanges, 43 May 4-6 JAS Nov 4-6 FMA

5. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Validation of Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) runs forced by ENSEMBLES stream2 seasonal forecasts

6. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 LMM dynamic malaria mode forced with daily Tx and pptn. The domain: Botswana: [27.5°S-17.5°S] [17.5°E-30°E] Table of experiments: Expid nameProjectInstitution/ModelPeriod Start date (lead months) Ensemble members ecmfENSEMBLES ECMWF IFS- HOPE 1960- 2006 Nov 1 (14)9 egrrENSEMBLES UK Met-Office HadGem2 1970- 2005 Nov 1 (14)9 lfpwENSEMBLES Meteo-France ARPEGE4/OPA 1960- 2005 Nov 1 (14)9 ingvENSEMBLES INGV ECHAM5/OPA8.2 1960- 2005 Nov 1 (7)9 ifmkENSEMBLESKiel ECHAM5/OM1 1960- 2005 Nov 1 (14)9

7. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Scores: ACC: anomaly correlation coefficients Addresses the question: How well did the forecast anomalies correspond to the observed anomalies? RMSE: Root mean square errors Answers the question: What is the average magnitude of the forecast errors? MSSS: Mean square skill score with

8. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1961-2000 NDJF: RMSE for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

9. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1961-2000 NDJF: ACC for Malaria Incidence over Bostwana (NDJF 1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means. The dotted area display significant correlations at the 95% confidence interval

10. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1961-2000 NDJF: MSSS for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1961-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

11. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: RMSE for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

12. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: ACC for Malaria Incidence over Botswana (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means. The dotted area display significant correlations at the 95% confidence interval

13. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: MSSS for Malaria Incidence over Bostwana (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a companion run forced by ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

14. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Validation climate drivers ENSEMBLES stream2 1981-2000 seasonal forecasts

15. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: RMSE for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

16. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: ACC for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

17. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: MSSS for tasmax (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

18. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: RMSE for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

19. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 NDJF: ACC for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

20. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 2 Results 1981-2000 DJF: MSSS for prlr (NDJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

21. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Summary & Way Forward? Experience in BSS and ROCSS (probabilistic) Question non probabilistic nature/use of RMSE, ACC and MSSS for EPS verification All data should come with sets of verification plots e.g. ECMWF DEMETER http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification Library of scripts? Or portal to where they exsist

22. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse Questions?

23. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse

24. Validation climate drivers ENSEMBLES stream1 1991-2001 seasonal forecasts also have for DEMETER equivalent years

25. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: RMSE for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

26. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: RMSE for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

27. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: ACC for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

28. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: ACC for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

29. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: MSSS for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a ERA40 reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

30. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: MSSS for tas (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a NCEP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

31. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: RMSE for prlr (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

32. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: ACC for prlr (DJF 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

33. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 DJF: MSSS for prlr (DJF 1981-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

34. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 JAS: RMSE for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

35. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 JAS: ACC for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

36. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse ENSEMBLES –stream 1 Results 1991-2000 JAS: MSSS for prlr (JAS 1991-2000). The reference dataset is a GPCP reanalysis, and the analysis is applied to the ensemble means.

37. WGSIP12 – Miami - January 2009 – Impacts verification - Andy Morse