1. 1 Modeling and Measuring Botnets David Dagon, Wenke Lee Georgia Institute of Technology Cliff C. Zou Univ. of Central Florida Funded by NSF CyberTrust Program, 2006

2. 2 Outline Motivation Diurnal modeling of botnet propagation Botnet population estimation Botnet threat assessment

3. 3 Motivation Botnet becomes a serious threat Not much research on botnet yet  Empirical analysis of captured botnets  Mainly based on honeypot spying Need understanding of the network of botnet  Botnet growth dynamics  Botnet (on-line) population, threat level … Well prepared for next generation botnet

4. 4 Outline Motivation Diurnal modeling of botnet propagation Botnet population estimation Botnet threat assessment

5. 5 Botnet Monitor: Gatech KarstNet A lot bots use Dyn-DNS name to find C&C bot C&C attacker C&C KarstNet sinkhole cc1.com KarstNet informs DNS provider of cc1.com  Detect cc1.com by its abnormal DNS queries DNS provider maps cc1.com to Gatech sinkhole (DNS hijack) bot All/most bots attempt to connect the sinkhole

6. 6 Diurnal Pattern in Monitored Botnets Diurnal pattern affects botnet propagation rate Diurnal pattern affects botnet attack strength

7. 7 Botnet Diurnal Propagation Model Model botnet propagation via vulnerability exploit  Same as worm propagation  Extension of epidemic models Model diurnal pattern  Computers in one time zone  same diurnal pattern  “Diurnal shaping function”  i (t) of time zone i  Percentage of online hosts in time zone i  Derived based on the continuously connection attempts by bots in time zone i to Gatech KarstNet

8. 8 Modeling Propagation: Single Time Zone : # of infected : # of vulnerable :# of online infected :# of online vulnerable Epidemic model Diurnal pattern means: Diurnal model removal

9. 9 Modeling Propagation: K Multiple Time Zones (Internet) Limited ability to model non-uniform scan scan rate from zone j  i IP space size of zone i

10. 10 Validation: Fitting model to botnet data Diurnal model is more accurate than traditional epidemic model

11. 11 Applications of diurnal model Predict future botnet growth with monitored ones  Use same vulnerability?  have similar  (t) Improve response priority Released at different time

12. 12 Outline Motivation Diurnal modeling of botnet propagation Botnet population estimation Botnet threat assessment

13. 13 Population estimation I: Capture-recapture How to obtain two independent samples?  KarstNet monitors two C&C for one botnet  Need to verify independence with more data  Study how to get good estimation when two samples are not independent  KarstNet + honeypot spying  Guaranteed independence? Botnet population # of observed (two samples) # of observed in both samples

14. 14 Population estimation II: DNS cache snooping Estimate # of bots in each domain via DNS queries of C&C to its local DNS server  Non-recursive query will not change DNS cache Time …. Cache TTL If queries inter-arrival time is exponentially distributed, same then T i follows the same exp. distr. ( memoryless ) Query rate/bot

15. 15 Outline Motivation Diurnal modeling of botnet propagation Botnet population estimation Botnet threat assessment

16. 16 Basic threat assessment Botnet size (population estimation) Active/online population when attack (diurnal model) IP addresses of bots in botnets  Basis for effective filtering/defense  KarstNet is a good monitor for this  Honeypot spying is not good at this Botnet control structure (easy to disrupt?)  IPs and # of C&C for a botnet?  P2P botnets?

17. 17 Botnet attack bandwidth Bot bandwidth: Heavy-tailed distribution  Filtering 32% of bots cut off 70% of attack traffic How about bots bandwidth in term of ASes?  If yes, then contacting top x% of ASes is enough for a victim to defend against botnet DDoS attack