1. U - 1 12/8/98 Balkans Unrest (Year 2000)

2. U - 2 12/8/98 There is a small but but increasingly-violent insurrection in Macedonia The insurrection is centered in the minority Albanian population –37% of the population is ethnic Albanian Balkans Unrest

3. U - 3 12/8/98 Balkans Unrest — cont’d There are two underground movements: –The Greater Albania Rights Movement (GARM) Has at least moral support from Albania, Bosnia and Turkey GARM wants a greater role for the Albanian minority –A small group within GARM preaches creation of Greater Albania including parts of Macedonia and Kosovo –Macedonia Unity (MU) is much smaller and has more limited aims They espouse a “small” Macedonia co-operating with its neighbors Most of MU’s leadership are not ethnically Albanian, and the group is more anti-government than ethnically nationalist MU appears to have some support in Greece

4. U - 4 12/8/98 Government crackdowns on these movements have been only moderately successful International concern is growing –Yugoslavia, Albania, Turkey and Greece have variously expressed support for the government or one or the other underground faction –NATO the OSCE, the EU, the US, Germany, UK and France have attempted to play differing moderating roles Balkans Unrest — cont’d

5. U - 5 12/8/98 Last week, the GARM attacked several government posts near the Serb border The Serb government also accused the GARM of supplying arms to Albanians in Kosovo The Serbs threatened military action in Macedonia to suppress the GARM Turkish officials then implied that they would “respond” to a Serb “invasion” of Macedonia In turn, the Greeks asserted that they “would not stand idly by” should Turkey intervene Balkans Unrest — cont’d

6. U - 6 12/8/98 Balkans Unrest — cont’d The US has become alarmed and has encouraged calm –The Americans are also concerned at the looming split within NATO –They have approached the Hungarian government about preparing bases in Hungary for possible use by NATO or an ad hoc multilateral peacekeeping force The Prime Minister asks: –How should we reply to the Americans? –What else can we do about the situation in general?