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The ICME’s magnetic field and the role on the galactic cosmic ray modulation for the solar cycle 23 Evangelos Paouris and Helen Mavromichalaki National.

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Presentation on theme: "The ICME’s magnetic field and the role on the galactic cosmic ray modulation for the solar cycle 23 Evangelos Paouris and Helen Mavromichalaki National."— Presentation transcript:

1 The ICME’s magnetic field and the role on the galactic cosmic ray modulation for the solar cycle 23 Evangelos Paouris and Helen Mavromichalaki National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Physics Department

2 ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium Overview  New ICME’s catalogue  Improvement of the CME-index with ICME magnetic field (B z - component) and geomagnetic index Ap  Cosmic-Ray intensity modulation

3 Previous catalogues Previous CataloguesParameters Richardson and Cane, 2010Start/End times of sheath and ICME, V I, V max, V transit, B, MC, Dst, SOHO/LASCO association Zhang et al., 2007Start/End times of shock and ICME, V I, width, Dst, flare association SOHO/LASCO association Jien et al., 2006Start/End times of shock and ICME, V min, V max, B max, Comments Mitsakou and Moussas, 2014Start/End times of sheath and ICME Each one has important information but these are separated works ONE list with as many as possible information per CME ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

4 ICME identification ACESOHO / LASCO ICME Shock ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

5 New Catalogue with 48 parameters for each CME/ICME Start time of the disturbance/discontinuity, Start/End time of the ICME, background conditions (before the arrival of the ICME), Shock/MC existence, Vinitial, Vicme/max, Vdist/max, Vtransit, Binitial, Bicme/max, Bdist/max, Bz_dist/icme/min, plasma parameters (plasma β, Tp, Np, alpha ratio), Dst min and time, Ap max and time, SOHO/LASCO CME association date/time and angular width, solar flare association C,M,X-class, peak time, AR region with coordinates, Comments about the event 161 events for solar cycle 23 (This new catalogue is going to be published very soon) ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

6 First attempt for CME-index with magnetic field ICME Magnetic field - |B| Transit Velocity - V tr Angular width - w Pi = 3 (maximum value) for “Halloween event” 29 October 2003 with: B ICME = 31.72 nT, V transit = 2235 km/s and w=360° (halo) (Paouris and Mavromichalaki, 2015) ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

7 A more geoeffective index ICME Bz Magnetic field minimum value - Bz Transit Velocity - V tr Angular width - w Ap geomagnetic index - Ap ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

8 The new CME-index “Background index” (Paouris, 2013) and (Paouris et al., 2015a) October-November 2003 “Geoeffective index” ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

9 The new CME-index The new final combined formula has the form: The factors α and β are taking into account the phase of the solar cycle and the factors γ and δ are taking values in order to maximize the correlation coefficient between Pi- index and Cosmic Ray intensity ICMEs monthly number CME-index based on ICMEs Background CME-index ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

10 Galactic Cosmic-Ray modulation The best model before the ICME index: “Solar” model Variables: Sunspot Number (Rz), CME-index (P i ), mean Magnetic Field (MF) and Polar Field (PF) of the Sun The values of Pi based on the data of CMEs with angular width greater than 15° are produced by the monthly number of CMEs (Nc) and the mean plasma velocity (Vp) with the following relation: RMSD: 9.5% (Paouris et al., 2015) ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

11 Galactic Cosmic-Ray modulation The best model with the new Pi-index using magnetic fields of the ICME Variables: Sunspot Number (Rz), CME-index (P i ), mean Magnetic Field (MF) and Polar Field (PF) of the Sun Same Minimum for the observed and calculated by the model for the first time! Observed CR intensity from LMKS Calculated CR intensity RMSD: 7.5% ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

12 Comparison between the models Previous modelNew model Statistics Cor. Coef. r = 0.9255 Conf. level95% Root-MSE (SD)0.09543 Statistics Cor. Coef. r = 0.9542 Conf. level95% Root-MSE (SD)0.07537 ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

13 Conclusions For the first time a new ICME catalogue with so many information for each event is presented and also the magnetic field of the ICMEs is taken into account for the study of the CR modulation. The Pi-index is considered as a combination of the background values (P i,1 ) and the ICMEs characteristics (P i,2 ) which are associated with geomagnetic storms. Very high correlation coefficient (r = -0.91) between this index and the CR intensity, is found. The modulation of CR intensity gave the best approximation between observed and calculated values up to now with a RMSD ≈ 7.5% This new model approaches very well also the minimum of CR intensity (October/November 2003). The minimum of observed CR intensity coincides with the calculated by the model for the first time. The comparison between the last two models revealed a better cross correlation coefficient for the new model with r = 0.954 (conf. level = 95%) ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

14 Thank You! ESWW12 – 23-27 Nov. 2015 Oostende, Belgium

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