1. New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability Final Conference "External costs of energy technologies" Markus Blesl, IER, Germany RS “Modelling Pan European Policy scenarios” Brussels, February 17, 2009 The NEEDS TIMES PanEU modelling platform and main results of scenario analysis

2. Post-Kyoto climate policy (450 ppm)  An overall EU reduction target of -71% emissions by 2050 compared to 1990, is imposed  A scenario variant (450ppm_oil100) is analysed with oil prices going above USA$ 100/bb Security of energy supply ( OLGA and OLGA_NUC )  Imports of fossil fuels are constrained to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear (-30 % Oil, -40% Gas below baseline imports in 2010)  A scenario variance is analyzed (OLGA_NUC) where nuclear reactors are free options to mitigate climate change Scenario analysis Baseline case (REF)  Continuation of the support of renewable on a minimum level, nuclear phase out and limited use of nuclear in the countries they have used nuclear in the past.

3. Carbon Emissions in Mt CO2/yr

4. Attributes of CO2 emissions reductions in the EU27 in Mt CO2/yr Scenario – 450 ppm in the year 2020 Power plant (36.8 %) CHP (30.2 %) Fossil Switch 21% Nuclear 0% Renewable 5% CCS 10% Fossil Switch 14% Renewable 18% CCS 0% CCS CON 1% Electricity and Heat 1% Efficiency increase Enduse 1% Renewables 11% Efficiency 0% Efficiency 1% Fossil Switch 17% End use 33%

5. Cost Optimal Burden Sharing of the 20% GHG EC Target for 2020

6. Emission Reduction ETS vs. NonETS in 450ppm Scenario in 2020

7. Attribution of CO 2 emission reduction in the EU27 (450 ppm wi/wo security of supply) with oil and gas restriciton without oil and gas restriction

8. Attributes of CO2 emissions reductions in the EU27 in Mt CO2/yr Scenario – 450 ppm in the year 2050 Power plants (33.2%) CHP (15.2%) Fossil Switch 2% Nuclear 6% Renewable 9% CCS 13% CCS 7% CCS CON 4% Efficiency increase Enduse 8% Fossil Switch 19% Renewable 17% Electricity and Heat 7% End use 52% Fossil Switch 0% Efficiency 2% Efficiency 0% Renewables 6%

9. Attribution of CO 2 emission reduction in the EU27 (450 ppm wi/wo security of supply) with oil and gas restriction and without nuclear phase out with oil and gas restriction and with nuclear phase out

10. Scenario Comparison, EU27: Net Electricity Production

11. Scenario Comparison 450 PMM wi/wo security of supply EU27: By Electrical Capacity and Technology in GW with oil and gas restriciton without oil and gas restriction

12. Scenario Comparison 450 PMM with security of supply EU27: By Electrical Capacity and Technology in GW with oil and gas restriction and without nuclear phase out with oil and gas restriction and with nuclear phase out

13. CO 2 Prices and CO 2 Costs

14. Conclusions The role of technologies and structural changes in the energy system of the EU27 are more influenced by policies than of the technologies them self. A strong reduction of the import-dependence on oil and gas is only possible if the technology development will be successful in all parts of the energy system. In case of CO 2 emission reduction with a limitation on the further use of nuclear, renewable, CCS, fossil fuel switch and a increase of electricity in the final energy consumption plays a big rule. Efficiency improvement will be compensated by a higher share of renewable and the use of CSS till 2030. Only in case of security of supply efficiency improvement takes up an additional part. In the long term energy demand and end use technologies determinate more and more the possibility of structural changes and CO 2 prices.