1. Evoland – An Alternative Futuring Tool John Bolte Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering Oregon State University Corvallis, OR USA

2. Alternative Futuring Examine multiple sets of trends and assumptions about future conditions, generally using one of more models of change Examine multiple sets of trends and assumptions about future conditions, generally using one of more models of change Generally consists of a synthesis of these assumptions, trends into trajectories of future change Generally consists of a synthesis of these assumptions, trends into trajectories of future change Generally involves significant stakeholder interactions to define constraints, trajectories, drivers Generally involves significant stakeholder interactions to define constraints, trajectories, drivers May involve the use of simulation, decision support tools May involve the use of simulation, decision support tools

3. A Alternative Futuring Tool - Evoland Evoland (Evolving Landscapes) is a tool for conducting alternative futures analyses using: A spatially explicit, GIS-based approach to landscape representation A spatially explicit, GIS-based approach to landscape representation Captures human decision-making through explicit representation of land use/land management policies and actor-based (multiagent-based) approach to policy selection Captures human decision-making through explicit representation of land use/land management policies and actor-based (multiagent-based) approach to policy selection Incorporates autonomous landscape process models for representing non human (natural) landscape change Incorporates autonomous landscape process models for representing non human (natural) landscape change

4. Evoland – Triad of Relationships Policies Intentions Actors Values and Behaviors Landscapes Metrics of Production Economics Ecosystem Health Social (Programmatic) Provide a common frame of reference for actors, policies and landscape production

5. Evoland – General Structure Policies: Fundamental Descriptors of constraints and actions defining land use management decisionmaking Landscape: Spatial Container in which land use changes are depicted Landscape Evaluators: Generate landscape metrics reflecting scarcity Autonomous Change Processes: Models of nonhuman change Actors: Decisionmakers making landscape change by selecting policies responsive to their objectives Actions Policy Selection Landscape Feedback

6. Evoland Framework Evoland Fish Abundance/Distributions Floodplain Habitat Small-Stream Macroinvertabrates Upslope Wildlife Habitat Parcel Market Values Agricultural Land Supply Forest Land Supply Residential Land Supply Conservation Set-Asides Policy Set(s) Agent Descriptors Vegetative Succession Land Value Parcels (IDU’s) Evaluative ModelsData Sources Autonomous Process Models Urban Expansion Population Growth

7. Policies in Evoland Describe actions available to actors Describe actions available to actors Primary Characteristics: Primary Characteristics: Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query) Applicable Site Attributes (Spatial Query) Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models) Effectiveness of the Policy (determined by evaluative models) Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policy Outcomes (possible multiple) associated with the selection and application of the Policy Policies are a fundamental unit of computation in Evoland Policies are a fundamental unit of computation in Evoland Example: [Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [areas with no built structures and high channel migration capacity] when [native fish habitat becomes scarce] Example: [Purchase conservations easement to allow revegetation of degraded riparian areas] in [areas with no built structures and high channel migration capacity] when [native fish habitat becomes scarce]

8. Actors in Evoland Fundamentally, actors have decision-making authority over their portion of the landscape Fundamentally, actors have decision-making authority over their portion of the landscape Actors have Behaviors that relate to their values (e.g. ecosystem health, economics) Actors have Behaviors that relate to their values (e.g. ecosystem health, economics) Can organize into higher level Associations to influence policy generation, policy selection Can organize into higher level Associations to influence policy generation, policy selection Based on spatial proximity Based on spatial proximity Based on common behaviors Based on common behaviors For WRB project, Actors are initialized from Census data, voting behavior analysis For WRB project, Actors are initialized from Census data, voting behavior analysis