1. Development of Earthquake Damage Forecasting System and Response Plans in Cooperation with Mie University and Mie Prefecture Government 19th APAN Meetings @ Bangkok J. Kawaguchi, S. Morino, H.Hosono and S. Tanaka Mie University & Mie Prefecture, JAPAN 19th APAN Meetings @ Bangkok J. Kawaguchi, S. Morino, H.Hosono and S. Tanaka Mie University & Mie Prefecture, JAPAN

2. Background

3. 1995 South Hyogo-ken Earthquake

5.  Caused by the active fault named “Nojima fault”.  Attached Kobe Metropolitan area.  Approx. 6,000 people died.  Caused by the active fault named “Nojima fault”.  Attached Kobe Metropolitan area.  Approx. 6,000 people died.

6. 1995 South Hyogo-ken Earthquake

7. 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake

9.  Caused by the active fault  Occurred at an agricultural region.  40 people died.  Caused by the active fault  Occurred at an agricultural region.  40 people died.

10. Where are we from?

12. Characteristics of Mie  Various region  Industrial area : Northern part  Residential area  Agricultural area  Tourist area : Southern part  Long coast line : about 170 km  Southern part : a rias coastline  Various region  Industrial area : Northern part  Residential area  Agricultural area  Tourist area : Southern part  Long coast line : about 170 km  Southern part : a rias coastline

13. History

14. Trough Hypocentral region Assumed Intensity by Japanese government based on the worst scenario

15. Assumed Tsunami height at the coastline by Japanese government based on the worst scenario

16. Usual Disaster Info. System  Special system for disaster  Gather damage information  Visualize on GIS  Open to public on Web site  Special system for disaster  Gather damage information  Visualize on GIS  Open to public on Web site

17. Problem of Usual System  Not real time system  Need long time to gather information  Special System  Different from daily-work system  Difficult to Expand  Lack of flexibility  Difficult to update information of database  Information about buildings and residents  Not real time system  Need long time to gather information  Special System  Different from daily-work system  Difficult to Expand  Lack of flexibility  Difficult to update information of database  Information about buildings and residents

18. Objectives of New system  Seamless system  At ordinary time and at emergency  Real time damage forecasting system  Expandability  Seamless system  At ordinary time and at emergency  Real time damage forecasting system  Expandability

19. Base system  Time-Space Information system  Time-dependent GIS  Developed at NIED (National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention)  KIWI+ format  Open database  Time-Space Information system  Time-dependent GIS  Developed at NIED (National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention)  KIWI+ format  Open database

20. Forecasting  Earthquake information  Seismic intensity, ground acceleration,…  Building damage  Collapse, half-damaged, minor-damaged,..  Deaths and injured  Fire damage  Lifeline damage  Earthquake information  Seismic intensity, ground acceleration,…  Building damage  Collapse, half-damaged, minor-damaged,..  Deaths and injured  Fire damage  Lifeline damage

21. How it works?  Receive quake information automatically from Now-cast system and Mie seismic monitoring network. (real time)  Calculate the seismic intensity, maximum ground acceleration and speed based on the Time-GIS database. (about 1 sec.)  Calculate building damage. (about 1 sec.)  Calculate number of deaths and injured. (about 1 sec.)  Send calculated information to certain organization (local city government, Japanese government) by FAX or E-mail (in few sec.)  Receive quake information automatically from Now-cast system and Mie seismic monitoring network. (real time)  Calculate the seismic intensity, maximum ground acceleration and speed based on the Time-GIS database. (about 1 sec.)  Calculate building damage. (about 1 sec.)  Calculate number of deaths and injured. (about 1 sec.)  Send calculated information to certain organization (local city government, Japanese government) by FAX or E-mail (in few sec.)

25. Other Investigation for Response Plan  Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge at Tourist Area  Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge of the Weak  Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge at Tourist Area  Investigation on the Counter-plan for the Refuge of the Weak

26. Thank you very much. Mie University