1. © 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved. North Country Access Improvements Stakeholder Advisory Committee Meeting No. 5 August 26, 2015

2.  Review Study Goals and Objectives  Economic Assessment o Socio-Economic Conditions o Interview Findings  Economic Development Modeling  Next Steps Agenda

3. REVIEW OF PROJECT GOALS & OBJECTIVES Larry Lennon, Project Manager

4. Study Area

5.  Improve Roadway Operations and Freight Mobility  Support Economic Development:  Improve Safety and Quality of Life Purpose of Study

6. Improve freight mobility  Identify alternatives and improvements to reduce travel-times and delays. Create opportunity to leverage transportation assets for economic development  Determine the economic development potential associated with identified. Improve quality of life in village centers  Identify alternatives and improvements that would provide an opportunity for trucks to avoid village centers. Goals and Objectives

7. Improve safety and operational conditions in the study corridor  Incorporate geometric improvements to better conform to FHWA and NYSDOT design standards.  Incorporate operational improvements to address observed accident rates that are substantially above the statewide average for roadways of the same classification as Route 11. Support environmental stewardship  Avoid or minimize negative impacts to natural and built environments. Goals and Objectives

8. CORRIDOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ASSESSMENT Pam Yonkin, Economics Task Leader

9.  Analyzed existing conditions o Population o Workforce o Employment by Industry o Median household income  Interviewed small and large local businesses o Downtown Canton and Potsdam businesses o Alcoa and Walmart  Interviewed economic development professionals Economic Assessment

10. Existing Conditions – Population

11. Existing Conditions – Population Change From 2010 to 2014  County population decreased 0.4%  Upstate NY population decreased 0.2%  Northeast population increased 1.4%  38 of 50 upstate counties lost population over this time period

12. Existing Conditions – Workforce

13. Existing Conditions – Age

14. Existing Conditions – Employment Change

15. Existing Conditions – Median Household Income

16.  23 Interviews held o 9 Small Businesses o 6 Large Businesses 1.Alcoa 2.Walmart 3.Clarkson University 4.SUNY Potsdam 5.SUNY Potsdam Start-Up NY 6.Canton-Potsdam Hospital o 4 Economic Development and Planners 1.Town of Potsdam Planning Department 2.Town of Canton Planning Department 3.YESeleven 4.St. Lawrence County Industrial Development Agency o 4 Other Interviews

17.  Concern that some businesses to relocate out of town centers to interchanges on the bypass roadway o Based on experiences of other communities, this is less likely because both Canton and Potsdam are destinations – not pass-through downtowns o Communities can dictate development patterns  Fewer trucks in downtowns likely to improve safety/walkability and potentially generate new economic activity o Potential for increased tourist activity o Perceived and potentially safer environment because truck traffic is removed Interview Findings

18.  Moving trucks out of downtowns may: o Improve safety/walkability and potentially generate new economic activity o Reduce truck travel time o Reduce noise in downtowns  Bypass may not be only solution to moving trucks – Route 11 improvements…  Cost of improvements…  Opinions varied on physical infrastructure o Road may bypass Canton, Potsdam or both o Bypass may be 2-lane or 4-lane Interview Findings

19.  Unclear how important bypasses are to economic development in the region o McKinsey study currently underway may offer insight o Some support for a larger bypass that would enable the region to “check the box” on proximity to a four-lane highway  Good planning can ensure that bypass benefits are positive o Destination signage prior to bypass o Design bypass to be the “choice” and not the default Interview Findings

20. Conceptual Bypass for Economic Development Model

21. REMI OVERVIEW & APPROACH TO MODELING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS Chris Judson, REMI Task Leader

22.  Regional economic impacts and policy analysis models  Software training and unlimited technical support  Annual updates with ongoing research and development  Economic impact analysis consulting services  Regional economic impacts and policy analysis models  Software training and unlimited technical support  Annual updates with ongoing research and development  Economic impact analysis consulting services Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI)

23. Our Models PI + A full economic and demographic Policy Insight model Up to 160 industrial sectors; all 3,143 American counties; and over 6,000+ fully-adjustable policy variables (updated yearly) TranSight Transportation-specific expansion of PI + software package Integrates travel demand data (VMT, VHT, Trips), emissions data, safety valuation factors, and three transportation costs matrices with PI +

24. Four Methodologies Input-Output (IO) Industry-to-industry transactions and social accounting matrices (SAM) Supply-chains, regional purchase concepts (RPCs), and multipliers Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Long-term effects after markets “clear” back to a new equilibrium Dynamic adjustments to population, market shares, fuel mixtures, etc. New Economic Geography Endogenous productivity adjustments from industry/labor clustering Full trade-flows by industry and interregional competitiveness Econometrics Estimation of statistical parameters from observable data Strength of responses, elasticities, preferences, and “time-lags”

25. Model Structure

26. TranSight Structure

27. Dynamic Employment/ Personal Income/ etc. 15 yr30 yr

28. Difference from Previous Report  “Do New Highways Attract Businesses? The North Country (NY) Case Study” – 2003 Cambridge Systematics, Economic Development Research Group and Wilbur Smith Associates for the Transportation Research Board.  The conclusion of the study did support the development of a Route 11 alternative, however was not the same proposed alterative we are discussing today. o Previous corridor was based around 150 mile development  The REMI model was used in the study and local interviews were taken to verify local findings.  We intend to take our analysis into a further level of detail, utilizing surveys and regional stakeholder feedback directly as inputs into the model. Furthermore, the new report will be based on current regional economic and demographic datasets and a more up-to-date modeling approach.

29. Inputs: Planning & Construction  In-state firms hired and total spending on planning of corridor options  Total cost by year to construct corridor variations o Any additional data inputs on in-state employment, wages paid and project spending

30. Inputs: Operations & Maintenance  Ongoing in-state expenditures on maintenance and supervision of corridor o Will account for both the economic activity and the cost to maintain 2-4 lane corridor scenarios

31. Inputs: Network Improvements  FHWA supported network improvements  “The (REMI TranSight) model generates the most robust results of enhanced economic performance by travel time/cost saving for commercial vehicles (trucks). This is intuitively appealing since trucking is a component for most, if not all industry sectors.” -FHWA, “ A provisional typology of highway economic development projects. ”  Includes benefits from changes in the ability to get to work, the ability to deliver goods to market and the ability to access other goods and services within and between geographic regions

32. Financing  Balanced to account for both benefits and costs of the corridor o Approximately 80% Federal and 20 % State funded  Transfer payments to local land owners

33. Business Attraction  Growth in new industries and attract Canadian firms to relocate across the border o Example: NAICS 325 - Chemical Manufacturing o Exports from Quebec to New York Over $ 317 million in 2014 Average of over $ 345 million between 2005-2014 o Average annual compensation for chemical industry in St. Lawrence county: $ 101,805 dollars o Top five key supporting industries Oil and gas extraction Professional, scientific and technical services Wholesale trade Management of companies and enterprises

34. Regional Knowledge  Include survey data collected from HDR, support from state and local government agencies, additional community outreach  Goal: to include additional changes to the local area that may be lost in traditional analysis o Examples: Industry sales impact on restaurant and accommodation services Commuting location preferences Regional planning

35. Regional Overview & Results  3 Region TranSight, 70 Sector NY Model o Region 1: St. Lawrence County o Region 2: Rest of North Country o Region 3: Rest of New York

36. Larry Lennon, Project Manager NEXT STEPS  Economic development forecasts will be prepared  Forecasts and findings will be presented to SAC  Alternative conceptual bypass alignments and configurations will be developed  An alternatives workshop will be conducted with the SAC  HDR will conduct Benefit-Cost Analysis on alternatives to estimate transportation benefits/costs – safety, emissions reduction, travel time savings, etc.  A preferred alternatives will be chosen

37. Open Discussion

38. © 2014 HDR Architecture, Inc., all rights reserved. © 2014 HDR, Inc., all rights reserved.