1. Enhanced Process Understanding of the Coupled Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean System through MOSAiC
The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory
for the Study of Arctic Climate
Matthew Shupe – Univ. of Colorado/NOAA
On Behalf of the MOSAiC Science Team
9 December 2015

2. Dukhovskoy et al. 2006 www.iarc.uaf.edu Francis et al. 2009
The Arctic sea-ice pack looks like a mosaic itself, and the Arctic climate system is comprised of a mosaic of complex, interdependent processes. These are complex and potentially changing as the surface interface in the central Arctic is changing.

3. Central Arctic Energy Budget
2006
Incoming solar radiation
Outgoing LW
Reflected solar
emitted by atmosphere
Absorbed by atmosphere
2010
Atmosphere
back
radiation
Turbulence
Reflected surface
Large-scale advection
Energy is an important aspect of the coupled system. We know how some of this system works, but there are some confounding details, particularly how these details are changing. Decadal sea-ice decline can be explained by about 1 W/m2 of excess energy in the system, but we struggle to represent the key processes at that level. Can we characterize these fluxes in a 1st year ice environment? Can we appropriately represent heterogeneity and inter-disciplinary processes?
Absorbed by ice
2012
Sea ice
Emitted-Absorbed by ice
Sea ice
Transmitted
Turbulence
Ocean

4. Coupling Mixed-phase clouds accompany warm moist advection aloft;
Impacts BL structure.
Liquid clouds increase LWdown by W/m2
>>
Significant change in surface energy budget.
Points: One cannot really understand the variability in the sea-ice temperatures without understanding variability in SEB that is related to atmospheric conditions leading to liquid water clouds.
Thermal structure of snow and ice responds
>>
Conduction of heat through ice responds

5. Critical Model Shortcomings Inhibit our Understanding
IPCC: “Further, understanding of the polar climate system is still incomplete due to its complex atmosphere-land-cryosphere-ocean-ecosystem interactions involving a variety of distinctive feedbacks…. A serious problem is the lack of observations against which to assess models, and for developing process knowledge……”
Among the primary causes of biases in simulated sea ice:
High-latitude winds
Vertical and horizontal mixing in the ocean
Surface heat flux errors
Atmospheric boundary layer
High-latitude cloudiness
Cloud feedbacks remain one of the largest contributors to model uncertainty, globally. Role of clouds in the Arctic is relatively unknown (IPCC couldn’t even comment on it one way or another because of so little information).
Aerosol implications are complicated by long transport distances, limited local sources, mixed-phase processees
IPCC emphasizes the need to further develop models that can represent the drastic changes that are occurring, particularly handling issues such as abrupt changes, feedbacks, non-linear responses, etc.

6. Central Arctic Basin ice pack
MOSAiC Plan
Drifting, interdisciplinary process study in central Arctic (1st-year) sea ice:
Central observatory: intensive atmos-ice-ocean-ecosystem observations
Distributed Network: Heterogeneity on model grid-box scale
Coordinated, multi-scale analysis & modeling activities, Links with YOPP
Sea ice is the integrator of fluxes in the system
, annual cycle
Central Arctic Basin ice pack 4

7. MOSAiC Science Drivers Leading Science Question:
“What are the causes and consequences of an evolving and diminished Arctic sea ice cover?”
Sea-ice energy budget
Ice movement & deformation
Clouds / Precip / Aerosols
BioGeoChemistry and Ecosystems
Large-scale linkages
Typically the arctic system is studied only as individual disciplines. Our experiments are often designed that way, such that we don’t have the cross-disciplinary measurements to develop the coupled system processes needed in models. MOSAiC is designed to help address this gap. The top-level question is about sea-ice. But importantly it is about the sea-ice lifecycle, which integrates the forcings/fluxes that flow through the coupled system. Ultimately, the balance/budget of these forcings must be changing in order for the observed sea-ice decline to occur.

8. ocean and ice biogeochem
Measurements
atmospheric profiling, BL, & dynamics
gases, aerosols, clouds & precip.
aircraft + UASs
surface energy budget
buoys, AUVs, gliders
ocean and ice biogeochem
These are just example measurements. A complete list will be developed based on the specific science objectives.
ice thermodynamics,
dynamics, optics
ocean state, profiling, & dynamics
leads & ocean surface

9. 90o Contaminated turbulence zone Initial open water Dominant windBC
Snow surveys / ice optics / mass balance
SHIP
NATIONAL
PARK
500 m
Ice hut
Power line
HUT
OCEAN CITY small CTD µstructure profiler/ net sampling – 1 or 2 holes
SODAR
ITP
Ocean flux
ARM
IMB
Sampling here as ice forms
Met tower
HUT
Acoustic camera
Big holes
CTD
Ocean eddy
Net sampling
ROV
ICE CORE
FARM
Ice
optics
90o Contaminated turbulence zone
Structures
Met hut – wood
ARM - container
Ocean - tent
Ice - tent
Snow surveys / ice optics / mass balance
+ ice sites at ~2km BC BC

10. Planning the Constellation
Ice and coupled-system obs at multiple scales
Deformation at many scales
Spatial coverage with UAS

11. If you think MOSAiC is needed, let your program managers know!
MOSAiC into the Future
Finalize Science Plan – Start 2016
Implementation Plan – March 2016
US interagency proposals – 2016
EU Proposals – 2016
MOSAiC Open Science Meeting –
Field deployment – September 2019
If you think MOSAiC is needed,
let your program managers know!
Thanks!
We have a science plan writing team assembled – composed of 16 people representing a variety of nations, observation and model perspectives, and the IASC Atmos., Marine, and Cryosphere WGs. The team is currently working to collaboratively write the science plan based on information gathered from past workshops.