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1 March 2005 4Q04 Results 4Q04 Results GFNORTE. 2 1.2004 Results 2.Securitization of IPAB Loans 3.Relevant Events 4.Economic Outlook 5.Final Remarks.

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Presentation on theme: "1 March 2005 4Q04 Results 4Q04 Results GFNORTE. 2 1.2004 Results 2.Securitization of IPAB Loans 3.Relevant Events 4.Economic Outlook 5.Final Remarks."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 March 2005 4Q04 Results 4Q04 Results GFNORTE

2 2 1.2004 Results 2.Securitization of IPAB Loans 3.Relevant Events 4.Economic Outlook 5.Final Remarks

3 3 1. 2004 Results

4 4 20042003 GFNorte Highlights MILLION PESOS 8% 5% 122% 16% 2% 153% 2,339 17.5% 39.00 4.64 1.39 2,621 17.5% 70.14 5.19 2.28 2,3392,825 4.3%4.9% 12% 21% 80% 64% Performing loans Past due loan ratio Reserve Coverage Net Income Net Income w/o extraordinary charge ROAE Stock Price EPS P/BV Net Interest Margin

5 5 GFNorte´s Net Income MILLION PESOS 4Q03 Banking Long Term Savings Auxiliary Organizations Holding GFNORTE Brokerage 4Q0420042003Var% % 1,896 229 98 9 2,339 107 2,200 237 114 (6) 2,621 77 838 11 34 8 915 24 540 5 27 (2) 600 30 53% 55% 136% 28% 580% (21)% 16% 4% 16% (166)% 12% (29)% * * Includes $204 of extraordinary charges.

6 6 Profitability & Efficiency ROAE 23.5% 4Q04 17.0% 4Q03 Efficiency Ratio 59% 4Q04 80% 4Q03

7 7 Bank

8 8 MILLION PESOS 4Q034Q04VAR %20032004VAR % Net Interest Income after Repomo 2,1732,73326%8,7509,5219% Services63579024%2,2963,01831% Recovery386113(71%)827558(33%) Foreign Exchange8942(53%)415390(6%) Trading (77)135 277% 468349 (25%) Non Interest Income 1,0331,0805%4,0054,3158% Total Income 3,2063,81319%12,75513,8369% Non Interest Expense (2,569)(2,275)(11%)(9,872)(9,941)1% Net Operating Income 6371,538141%2,8833,89535% Non Operating Income, net (88)(57)(35%)(53)27150% Income tax and profit sharing (31)(284)816%(103)(552)436% Net Income 56288658%2,0532,38816% Loan loss and loss Shar. Provistions 6(369)(6,250%)(829)(1,157)40% * INCLUDES $202 OF EXTRAORDINARY CHARGES. * * Subsidiaries and minority interest 395849%15517614% Banking Sector´s Income Statement

9 9 NIM vs CETESCETES NIM 4.9 4.3 3.9 4.2 4.1 4.3 1Q032Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 8.8 6.3 4.6 5.4 5.6 6.3 5.0 7.1 3Q04 56% 70% 77% PERCENT 4Q04 6.2 8.1

10 10 Non Interest Income Recovery 21% Trading & Fx 22% Service Fees 57% Recovery 13% Trading & Fx 17% Service Fees 70% 2,2963,018 31% SERVICE FEES 2003 2004 MILLION PESOS

11 11 Expenses 200220032004 9.79.9 78% 72% 81% 200220032004 EFFICIENCY RATIO * Includes $0.2 of the extraordinary charges. * 2001 11.2 87% 2001 * 70% WITHOUT EXTRAORDINARY CHARGES Total Expense BILLION PESOS

12 12 Core Deposits Demand5768 Time32 35 Total89103 Mix Demand64%66% Time36%34% 100% 65 34 99 66% 34% 100% Deposits20022004 2003 BILLION PESOS

13 13 % of CETES Core Deposits Mix Cost 33% 4Q03 27% 4Q04

14 14 Performing Loan Portfolio 4Q033Q044Q04 QoQYoY 4Q033Q044Q04 72 78 84 2426298%21% 15 14(4%)(9%) 10 1332%36% Total7278848%8%18% 2327284%4%24% BILLION PESOS % Commercial Corporate Government Consumer

15 15 Performing Consumer Loan Portfolio 4Q033Q044Q04 23 27 28 5660%12% 3448%34% 1225%61% Consumer2327284%24% Automobile Credit Cards Payroll Loans 1416175%24% Mortgage 4Q033Q044Q04 BILLION PESOS % QoQYoY

16 16 Asset Quality Past Due Loan Loan Loss Reserves 4Q033Q044Q04 Reserve Coverage 3.72.8 1.8 4.5 3.62.7 Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 153% 122% 128% 4Q033Q044Q04 2.0% 4.8% 3.4% 4Q033Q044Q04 Total Loan Portfolio778388 BILLION PESOS

17 17 Recovery Bank

18 18 Recovery Bank Net Income 200220032004 612739609 20012004 Banorte Risk 49% IPAB & Serfin 51% Banorte Risk 28% IPAB & Serfin 72% MILLION PESOS

19 19 Recovery Bank ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT 2726 2421 2017 14 12 18 17 2132 2001200220032004 65 60 59 64 BILLION PESOS Banorte risk (owned + auctions) Serfin Portfolio IPAB Portfolio (servicing)

20 20 Capitalization Ratio Tier 1 Tier 2 TOTAL 10.5%11.4%12.2% 2.2%3.8%4.0% 12.7%15.3%16.2% 4Q033Q044Q04

21 21 Long Term Savings Sector

22 22 Afore 21 26 31 200220032004 ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT BILLION PESOS 2.9 2.8 2.6 200220032004 CUSTOMERS Millions

23 23 Insurance 1.4 1.9 2.2 GROSS PREMIUMS SOLD BILLION PESOS 2.4 1.5 0.9 CUSTOMERS Millions 200220032004 200220032004

24 24 Contribution to GFNorte’s Net Income … LONG TERM SAVINGS SECTOR 2002 Afore4% Insurance4% Annuities1% 9% 10% 8% 200220032004 6% 2% 0% 5% 4% 1% 20032004

25 25 2. Securitization of IPAB Loans

26 26 Securitization Structure  Sale of 46 billion pesos of IPAB loans (Bancrecer) to a trust.  The trust issues medium term notes to the market, guaranteed by IPAB loans.  AAA ratings by the 3 rating agencies.  No impact in stockholder’s equity.  Funding: out of Banorte’s balance sheet.  Largest securities offering in the history of Mexico.

27 27 Total Loan Portfolio TOTAL LOAN PORTFOLIO IPAB / FOBAPROA 19961997 46 110 2001 159 2002 168 2003 157 21% 71% 66% 59% 51% 3Q04 156 47% 79% 29% 34% 41% 49% 53% 2004 100 88% 12% BILLION PESOS

28 28 Banking’s Sector Balance Sheet WITHOUT SECURITIZATION ACTUAL 216 Loan Portfolio 88 Others70 IPAB58 Deposits101 MoneyMarket 74 Capital14 170 Loan Portfolio 88 Others70 IPAB12 Deposits101 MoneyMarket 28 Capital14 Others27 Others27 BILLION PESOS

29 29 Transformation of Funding Mix Money Market 44% Core 56% Money Market 21% Core 79% 20022004

30 30 Benefits  Savings of Ps 180 millions per year in IPAB fees.  Less pressure in the money market funding.  Clearer financial statements.  Decontamination of financial ratios (ROA and NIM).  Significant reduction of IPAB loans.

31 31 3. Relevants Events

32 32 Relevant Events  Acquisition of a corporate building in Mexico City. 23,000 square meters in 16 stories. Sale of 8 buildings for a total of US $42 Million. Total investment of US $63 Million. Significant synergies.

33 33

34 34 Relevant Events  Securitization of the Toll Road Monterrey - Cadereyta Amount: 2,250 million pesos in UDIS. Maturity: 25 years. Institutional Investors. AAA global rating. Awarded: “Infrastructure Deal of the Year” in the American Continent by “Project Finance International”. Innovative features: term and single guarantee.  Sólida acquired 7,153 million pesos of distressed assets in 4Q04.

35 35 4. Economic Outlook

36 36 v Mexico will post a 3.8% real rate of growth during 2005 boosted by stronger domestic demand. - The economy grew 4.4% during 2004, driven mainly by external demand. - Non oil exports increased 13.1% YOY. - Strong consumption and investment are expected to lead economic activity during 2005. - Investment grew 6.3% during the first eleven months of 2004, while retail sales increased 4.6% during the same period. - The labor market is still weak, even though 319,000 jobs were created in 2004, and 400,000 are expected for this year.  Mexico’s debt has been upgraded. - Public debt management continues to be proactive, shielding the economy against higher interest rates. - Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s raised Mexico’s foreign currency debt rating. - The current account deficit will be around 2.0% of GDP during 2005, helped by the oil windfall and strong remittances. - Tax revenues continue to be low relative to GDP, and highly dependent on oil income. Economic Outlook

37 37 Economic Outlook  Inflation is easing, but risks remain. - During 2004, supply shocks pushed CPI to 5.19% and PPI to 6.52%. - Inflation is starting to ease, but medium and long-term inflation expectations remain high. - Core CPI is the main concern, at 3.80% in december 2004. - Strong demand and wage negotiations could exert upward pressures on prices in 2005. - A tight monetary stance will prevail over the medium term. - We expect the peso to be relatively strong during the first half of the year.  2006 Presidential Elections will attract markets’ attention. - The political enviroment will start playing a role in markets’ behavior in the second half of the year. - Little –if anything- will be achieved in terms of structural reforms.

38 38 Economic Outlook 20 03 GDP1.3% Inflation3.98% 28 daysCete rate (End of period)6.06% 28 daysCete rate (Average)6.22% Peso exchange rate (End of period)11.24 2004e 4.4% 5.19% 8.50% 6.8282% 11.26 2005e 3.8% 3.80% 8.45% 8.81% 11.70

39 39 5. Final Remarks

40 40 GFNorte: 2004 Relevant Events  Loan Portfolio transformation.  Orientation to Consumer and SME´s loans.  Cleaning up of past due loans.  Earnings quality.  Efficiency program.  Securitization of IPAB loans.  Market cap.

41 41 Loan Portfolio Transformation Corporate 38% Commercial 27% Government 10% Consumer 25% Corporate 16% Commercial 34% Government 16% Consumer 34% 2002 2004 $66 billion pesos $84 billion pesos 27 % ORIENTATION TO CONSUMER

42 42 Loan Portfolio Transformation Reserve Coverage Past Due Loan Ratio (exc. IPAB) 153% 122% 128% 4Q033Q044Q04 2.0% 4.8% 3.4% 4Q033Q044Q04 CLEANING UP OF PAST DUE LOANS

43 43 Market Cap CAGR 47% 3,174 1,751 1,224 1,036 681 Dec'00Dec'01Dec'02Dec'03Dec’04 MILLION DOLLARS

44 44 GFNorte’s Stock Daily Volume 1Q033Q031Q043Q042Q034Q032Q044Q04 MILLION DOLLARS DAILY AVERAGE 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.3 6.7 4.2 4.7 4.9


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