1. Lockhart ISD District Demographics Update Fall 2015 Solutions Through Demographics

2. © School District Strategies 2 LOCKHART ISD DEMOGRAPHICS PROFILE: 2015 UPDATE Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Esri  LISD’s overall population is estimated to have increased by 1,651 people since the 2010 Census (+7%) to 25,379 residents  The district is estimated to have 8,420 total households in 2015, an increase of 574 households since 2010 (+7.3%)  National/government based statistics show a 1.5% annual growth rate for the overall population and HH’s in LISD  Recent population and HH growth rates are faster than estimates for Caldwell County (Averaging 1.2% growth per yr.)  Over the next five years, the rate of population and HH growth in LISD is projected to average 1.6% per year

3. 3 LOCKHART ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY (PK-12): FALL 2005-FALL 2015 10/15/15  Total enrollment has increased by 709 students since 2010  LISD enrollment climbs to a new high of 5,393 in the Fall of 2015

4. 4 LOCKHART ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY: PK-12 ANNUAL GROWTH 2005/06 – 2015/16  LISD enrollment is up 27 students (+0.5%) over the past year  Since 2005/06 school year the district has averaged 1.8% annual growth  Enrollment growth over the past five years has been faster, averaging 2.9% per year (+142 students per year) 10 Yr. Avg. = +1.8%/yr. 5 Yr. Avg. = +2.9%/yr. 10 Yr. Avg. = +85/yr. 5 Yr. Avg. = +142/yr.

5. 5 LOCKHART ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY: GROWTH BY ATTENDANCE LEVEL FALL 2005-FALL 2015 +386 +95 +210 5-Yr Cumulative Growth Total +18

6. 6 LOCKHART ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY BY GRADE LEVEL  The class sizes of grades 1 st – 5 th have grown by an average of 76 students per grade since Fall 2010  Wave of growth from 2007-2010 combined with recent growth now impacting upper grades  Average size of grades 9-11 is up 67 students

7. 7 LOCKHART ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY: RACE/ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION OF ENROLLED STUDENTS  The proportion of Hispanic students enrolled in the district continues to increase  71.7% of all LISD students in Fall 2015 are Hispanic

8. 8 LOCKHART ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY: ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED STUDENTS  LISD seeing an increasing number of economically disadvantaged students  69.6% of all LISD students in Fall 2015 (3,756 total students) *Percentages for Region 13 and State are for 2014/15 SY

9. 9 LOCKHART ISD STUDENTGEO-CODING FALL 2015 Fall 2015 snapshot data 5,337 addresses mapped (99%) 95% within district boundary (5,087 students) About 250 students transfer into the district 48.4% of LISD students live in city of Lockhart

10. 10  SDS segmented the district geographically by planning zone. The 25 zones were based on the census bureau defined block groups. The same boundaries were used in 2010, 2012, & 2014. LOCKHART ISD PLANNING ZONE BOUNDARIES

11. 11 LISD PLANNING ZONES

12. 12 FALL 2015 STUDENT GEO-CODING: TOTAL STUDENTS BY PLANNING ZONE Areas with the most LISD students (highlighted in red) include:  #1 Lytton Springs area (PZ 19)  #2 Southern (PZ 11) city of Lockhart (PZ 3)  #3 Mustang Ridge area (PZ 18)  # 4 Northwest Lockhart/Silent Valley Rd. Corridor (PZ 8) PZ 18 PZ 19 PZ 11 PZ 8

13. 13 ENROLLMENT GROWTH 2012 TO 2014 Lytton Springs area (PZ 19) was leading growth area from Fall 2012 to Fall 2014 followed by the northwest City of Lockhart (PZ 8) and the Dale area (PZ 22)

14. 14 ENROLLMENT GROWTH: LYTTON SPRINGS AREA (PZ 19) Enrollment in PZ 19 (Lytton Springs area) has increased by 283 students since Fall 2012 Growth has been driven by the Tierra Verde and Highland Ranch mobile home developments (now 225 LISD students combined) Tierra Verde (52 lots yield 89 students) Highland Ranch (140 lots yield 136 students) SH 130 TOLL/US 183 FM 1854

15. 15 STUDENT GEO-CODING: 2015 vs. 2014 Enrollment growth areas from Fall 2014 to Fall 2015: 1. PZ 5 (+60) 2. PZ 20 (+35) 3. PZ 16(+23)

16. 16 ENROLLMENT GROWTH 2014-2015: PZ 5 Total number of students in Clearfork Estates and Meadow at Clear Fork increases from 126 in Fall 2014 to 164 in Fall 2015 Clear Fork St. W. San Antonio St.

17. 17 LISD ISD FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS: NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION Start = Foundation started Closing = Visibly occupied  35 new homes occupied in the 3 rd quarter of 2015  Highest total in more than 5 years

18. 18 LOCKHART ISD FUTURE GROWTH DRIVERS: ANNUAL NEW HOME ACTIVITY & DEVELOPMENT Start = Foundation started Closing = Visibly occupied  Since 1Q14, builders have started 147 and closed 123 new homes in the district  Builders have almost used up all the vacant developed lots in the district  No significant SF lot development has occurred in LISD since before 2009

19. 19 LOCKHART ISD – CITY OF LOCKHART NEW HOME MARKET US 183 SubdivisionOccupied Homes Total LISD Students Avg. Yield Clear Fork 14787 0.59 Meadow at Clear Fork 11078 0.71 Summerside 213163 0.77 Windridge 11277 0.69 Total5824050.70 SH 130 Toll

20. 20 LOCKHART ISD – FUTURE LYTTON SPRINGS / DALE AREA MOBILE HOME DEVELOPMENTS SH 130 Toll/US 183 SubdivisionFuture Lots Forister Ranch Ph. 3 55 Natalie Acres 10 Sunrise Meadows Ph. 2 88 Compostela 58 Dale Oaks 35 Total246

21. 21 DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS (PK-12) NEXT 3-YEARS ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH/CUMULATIVE GROWTH NEXT 5-YEARS ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH/CUMULATIVE GROWTH NEXT 10-YEARS ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH/CUMULATIVE GROWTH 1.9%2.0%1.8% +320+547+1,030 Moderate Scenario

22. 22 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS VS. CAPACITY

23. 23 Copyright 2015 School District Strategies. Disclaimer - Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources in a manner that SDS believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and such information may be incomplete, condensed or interpolated. Information presented in this report represents our estimates as of the date of the publication and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement for any action taken by others. In no event will School District Strategies be liable for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential lost profits, lost savings, damages or other liabilities resulting from any information provided herein. 16980 N. Dallas Parkway Suite 101 Dallas, Texas 75248 www.schooldistrictstrategies.com