1. EOH 469: ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS EOH 469 - SPRING 2016 REBECCA LUSTIG, MS, REHS THURSDAYS, 7 – 9:45PM

2. JANUARY 28: CLASS OVERVIEW Instructor Class Description Grading Topic 1: Introduction to Risk Analysis

3. ABOUT ME Bachelor’s Degree in Environmental and Occupational Health from CSUN 2007 Master’s Degree in EOH from CSUN 2011 U.S. Public Health Service COSTEP Summer 2007 Ventura County Environmental Health Division 2007 – Present Part-time CSUN faculty Fall 2015 - Present

4. ABOUT ME Ventura Co EHD - Community Services Section Restaurant inspections and commercial-use pool inspections Foodborne illness investigations Housing inspections Food facility and pool plan review Emergency response

5. ABOUT ME Ventura Co EHD - CUPA Section Hazardous materials Hazardous waste / Tiered Permitting UST APSA Emergency response HAZWOPR certified ICC certified UST inspector OSFM certified APSA inspector

6. CLASS DESCRIPTION Lectures Office Hours after class or by appointment Two Midterms Feb. 18: Midterm #1 - Multiple Choice, Fill-in-the Blank, etc April 14: Midterm #2 – Calculations Final Exam on May 19 Material from Midterm #1 and #2 New material from remaining classes

7. GRADING / STUDENT EXPECTATIONS Three exams worth 100 points each Punctuality, class begins at 7pm Communication At least attempt calculations

8. IMPORTANT DATES No Class Feb 25 - at a conference March 24 – Spring Break March 31 - Holiday Test Dates Feb 18 – Midterm #1 April 14 – Midterm #2 May 19 - Final

9. TOPIC #1 : INTRODUCTION TO RISK

10. DEFINING RISK Webster’s Dictionary – “the possibility of suffering harm or loss” Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) – “the chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems resulting from exposure to an environmental stressor” National Research Council – “the probability and magnitude of a hazard” Standard definition for working professionals Most referenced definition

11. SYNONYMS FOR RISK Chance Uncertainty Instability Hazard Gamble Possibility

12. WHO DEALS WITH RISK? Athletes Gamblers Adventurers/Travelers Scientists Inventors Insurance Companies Governments Corporations Public/Environmental Health – THAT’S YOU!

13. WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS? Collection of approaches and disciplines devoted to all aspects of risk issues Deliberately broad and open New scientific disciplines make the definition a dynamic, not a static one

14. DISCIPLINES THAT ANALYZE RISK Epidemiology – study of the distribution and determinants of disease in humans; tends to focus on the effects of risk, such as disease Toxicology – science of poisons; tends to focus on the cause of risk, such as chemicals Statistics – analysis of quantifiable data to describe or infer the characteristics of a population

15. COMPONENTS OF RISK ANALYSIS According to the Society for Risk Analysis: Risk Assessment Risk Communication Risk Management *Risk Perception

17. RISK ASSESSMENT Definition: “ the characterization of adverse effects from exposure to hazards” Example: “the risk of cancer from chemical X is greater than one in a million” Includes probabilities, uncertainties, analytic model(s) used to access adverse effects Traditionally uses 4 step model

18. 4-STEP RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL 1. Hazard Identification 2. Exposure Assessment 3. Dose-Response Assessment 4. Risk Characterization

19. STEP 1 - HAZARD IDENTIFIACTION Determine whether a particular agent is causally linked to particular health effects Specific adverse health effects are called “Hazard Endpoints” Discussed further in Topic 2

20. STEP 2 - EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT Determine the extent of human contact with a harmful agent Useful to evaluate before and after application of regulatory controls Discussed further in Topic 6

21. STEP 3 - DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT Determine the relationship between the magnitude of exposure and the probability of occurrence of health effects in question For example, how much of chemical X will kill 50% of lab mice in an experiment? Discussed further in Topic 7

22. STEP 4 - RISK CHARACTERIZATION Describe the nature and magnitude of human risk, including its uncertainty Integrates information from previous steps Discussed further in Topic 8

23. SCREENING RISK ASSESSMENT Uses relatively simple models and limited data Missing data means the use of: 1. many assumptions 2. conservative default values

24. REFINED RISK ASSESSMENT Requires more data, more sophisticated models, fewer assumptions, and fewer default values No limit to degree of refinement Uncertainties can be substantially lowered Emerging technologies

25. APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF REFINEMENT Depends on the situation / problem being assessed Make the analysis as simple as possible, but no simpler “Purpose is to optimize the use of resources and perform a more detailed risk assessment only when warranted” – Cal EPA Risk Assessment Advisory Committee, referring to screening risk assessments In truth, aren’t all risk assessments screening risk assessments?

26. BIAS IN RISK ANALYSIS A systematic error, or deviation from the truth, in results or inferences Can operate in either direction; different biases can lead to underestimation or overestimation of the true intervention effect. Can vary in magnitude

27. https://youtu.be/i1jzI_ow3LY

29. RISK COMMUNICATION Definition: “an interactive exchange of information and opinions among individuals, groups, and institutions regarding risk” Keywords: interactive, opinions, multiple parties involved Cognitive Models and Planning Models

30. COGNITIVE MODELS Stress the perceptions and biases people have for risk Fear Risk – Reward Psychological factors

31. PLANNING MODELS 4 Parts: 1. Source 2. Message 3. Channels 4. Receiver Interactive exchange All elements are crucial

32. RISK MANAGEMENT

33. Definition: “the evaluation, selection, and implementation of risk control actions” Evaluation and selections are decisions made from a risk analysis Implementation refers to the actions that are part of risk management Uses tools from economics, engineering, administration and law

34. RISK MANAGEMENT PARADOX If all risk is unacceptable, and all alternatives are risky….. Then all alternatives will be rejected, no progress will be made and nothing will get done, risk could actually increase Managing expectations Making unpopular decisions

36. RISK PERCEPTION Definition: “belief held by an individual or group about the probability and/or magnitude of a risk and its effects” Perceived risk may motivate the decision to do a risk assessment Perceptions may change after the assessment and/or the management decisions have been implemented Begin new cycle of risk analysis when new information changes perceptions

37. QUESTIONS TO ASK 1. Who are the key participants in this risk assessment? The client Regulatory agencies Private corporations Other consultants Citizens groups

38. QUESTIONS TO ASK 2. Since the definitions of risk can vary, how is it defined in this case? By the client By the relevant agencies (or law) By any other significant participants in the process

39. QUESTIONS TO ASK 3. Is this issue truly in need of a risk analysis? Would the results of the risk analysis have any effect on the decision? Is this more an issue of risk assessment, risk communication, or risk management? The answer will influence strategies and interpretation

41. QUESTIONS TO ASK 4. What are some immediate uncertainties for this risk analysis? Staffing Funding

42. QUESTIONS TO ASK 5. What are the key information sources for this risk? Obtain relevant documents Historical data Experts Varying interpretation and opinions Laws / Regulations / Statutes / Standards / Guidance documents

43. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH AND RISK Concern about how public health is impacted by environmental hazards Concern about how the environment is impacted by manmade/natural hazards EH professionals, public and private sector, have an obligation to address this concern….enter the need for Risk Analysis

44. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY EPA uses risk assessment to characterize the nature and magnitude of health risks to humans and ecological receptors from chemical contaminants and other stressors, that may be present in the environment.

45. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS Risk assessment was always a part of EPA’s function First risk assessment document was completed in 1975 “Quantitative Risk Assessment for Community Exposure to Vinyl Chloride” 1976: “Interim Procedures and Guidelines for Health Risk and Economic Impact Assessments of Suspected Carcinogens”

46. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS 1980: EPA announced water quality criteria documents for 64 contaminants Marked first EPA document describing quantitative procedures used in risk assessment

47. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS 1983: National Academy of Science published “Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process” AKA – the Red Book

49. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS 1984: EPA published “Risk Assessment and Management: Framework for Decisions Making” Emphasized transparency in the risk assessment process

50. INTEGRATED RISK INFORMATION SYSTEM Release in 1980’s Database of human health effects that may result from exposure to various substances http://www.epa.gov/iris

51. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS 1990’s: EPA began issuing guidelines for conducting risk assessments Initial focus on human health risk assessment in 1980’s Basic model was adapted to ecological risk assessment in 1990’s to deal with plants, animals and whole ecosystems

52. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS National Academy of Science published: “Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children” “Science and Judgement in Risk Assessment” “Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society”

53. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS 1995: EPA updated and issued their current “Risk Characterization Policy” Risk assessments done by EPA must include risk characterization To ensure the assessment process is transparent Clear, reasonable and consistent 2000: EPA develops “Risk Characterization Handbook” to implement this new policy

54. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS Congressional / Presidential Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management (CRARM) was created by 1990 Clean Air Act amendments and formed in 1994 Investigate policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs 1997: CRARM published report discussing importance of evaluating strategies to reduce human and ecological risks

55. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS 2009: “Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment” Updated recommendations from National Academy of Sciences AKA – the Silver Book

57. SILVER BOOK Improving technical analysis and utility of risk assessment for decision making Promotes risk assessment should be viewed as a method for evaluating the relative merits of various options Greater need for upfront planning of the risk assessment Need for involvement of all appropriate stake holders

58. EPA’S NATIONAL CENTER ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT Leader in the science of human health and ecological risk assessment Part of EPA’s Office of Research and Development Prepare technical reports and assessments that integrate and evaluate research Develops quantitative risk assessment methods

59. EPA RAGS RAGS – Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Useful for preparing a human health risk assessment Assists in decision – making at remediation sites

60. EXECUTIVE ORDER 13045 Protection of Children from Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks High priority to identify and assess risk that disproportionately affect children Accounts for behaviors, body weight, differences in body / organ system development

61. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT 1992 - Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment 1998 - Ecological Risk Assessment Guidance Evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors GEAE – Generic Ecological Assessment Endpoints

62. PRELIMINARY ENDANGERMENT ASSESSMENT GUIDANCE MANUAL Basic information for determining if there has been a release of a hazardous substance that presents a risk to human health or the environment Environmental consultants conducting PEAs for private parties with Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) oversight Hazard Index Equations Risk Equations Field Sampling Information for Preliminary Assessment and Site Inspection (PA / SI) investigations

63. RBCA Risk – Based Corrective Action ASTM E-2081 - standard guide for risk-based corrective action Stream-lined approach for selecting corrective action at petroleum release sites Help focus limited resources on sites that pose greatest risk to human health and the environment

69. REVIEW OF TOPIC 1 Introduction to EOH 469 Defining Risk Risk Analysis Environmental Risk Analysis documents and tools

70. QUESTIONS??