1. Global Economy and Business MOBILITY AND MIGRATION Prof.ssa Luisa Natale http://www.docente.unicas.it/luisa_natale / email oli59@mclink.it

2. MOBILITY AND MIGRATION 4a. MEASURES

3. Measures The study of migration focuses on: A)Intensity (absolute values, rate, …) B)Distance and direction of flow - that is, specifying the origin and destination of the migration flows C) The structure of the migrant population according to the main features of biodemographic, socio-economic, ethnic and cultural type

4. A) Intensity of migration Estimate of NET MIGRATION Net total of migrants during the period, that is, the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens

5. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate For example: Equation of Population: Italy 2010 (slide 6) Source →//demo.istat.it/index.html → Bilancio demografico 2010 B. Indirect estimate

6. Total Population Balance n P t = n P t-1 + n B ∆t - n D ∆t + n I ∆t - n E ∆t B = births D = deaths I = Immigration E = Emigration t = time, n = type of population (in this case, total population) n B ∆t - n D ∆t = Natural Increase n I ∆t - n E ∆t = Net Migration

7. Total Population Increase n P t - n P t-1 = Total population increase n P t - n P t-1= n B ∆t - n D ∆t + n I ∆t - n E ∆t This is the classical definition of a population balance

8. The real population balance In countries with census and population registers, the balance is not merely a result of natural and migration increase Other components are present in a balance (see, for instance, Italy)

9. The two population balances n P t - n P t-1= n B ∆t - n D ∆t + n I ∆t - n E ∆t the classical population balance n P t - n P t-1= n B ∆t - n D ∆t + n I ∆t - n E ∆t + n OI ∆t - n OE ∆t + n IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t n OI ∆t - n OE ∆ t = other registered/cancelled ( n IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t )= total internal balance the real population balance (see Italy)

10. The internal migration balance ( n IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t )= total internal balance = enrolled from others municipalities-cancelled to other municipalities It should be egual to zero, but due to late in the process of registration/deregistration of flows in each municipalities the balance is always different from zero (often fifty-sixty thousands of movements, very scarce in comparison of 1,3 millions of internal movements)

11. EXERCISE Write: 1) the Equation of total population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate,slide 12) 2) total population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

12. TOTAL POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate (Italy, 2010)

13. EXERCISE Natural Increase= n B ∆t - n D ∆t = 561944 – 587488 = -25544 Net (International) Migration = Enrolled from abroad – cancelled to abroad = + n I ∆t - n E ∆t = 458856 – 78771= 380,085 Technical balance n OI ∆t - n OE ∆ t = other registered – others cancelled = 40040 – 119416 = - 79376 ( n IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t )=total internal balance=1374363-1363414=10949 Other components (net migration due to other reasons):-79376 – 10949 = - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): 380085 – 68427= 311,658

14. Equation of Population: Italy 2010, 31.12 60,626,442 = 60,340,328 +(-25,544)+ 311,658 where: Natural Increase: - 25,544 Net (International) Migration: + 380,085 Other components (net migration due to other reasons): - 68,427 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): + 311,658 Total Increase: 60,626,442 - 60,340,328 = 286,114

15. FOREIGN POPULATION BALANCE A. Direct estimate

16. Equation of Foreign population Population Total Increase → f P t - f P t-1 f P t - f P t-1 = f B  t - f D  t + f I  t - f E  t - f N  t + f OI  t - f OE  t + + f IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: f B  t - f D  t = Natural Increase f I  t - f E  t = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad) f OI  t - f OE  t =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled) f IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t = Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities - cancelled to others municipalities)

17. EXERCISE Write: 1) the Equation of foreign population in Italy, 2010, 31.12 (Direct estimate, slide 12) 2) foreign population increase (Direct estimate, slide 12)

18. Equation of Foreign population f P t - f P t-1 = f B  t - f D  t + f I  t - f E  t - f N  t + f OI  t - f OE  t + + f IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t B=births, D=deaths, I=Immigration, E=Emigration, N=Naturalization O=technical adijustments, Int = internal moves; where: f B  t - f D  t = Natural Increase = +72,958= 78,082 - 5,124 f I  t - f E  t = Net (International) Migration (enrolled from abroad-cancelled to abroad)= 424,499 - 32,817 = 391682 f OI  t - f OE  t =Technical balance (other enrolled-other cancelled)= 22272- 91093 = - 68821 f IntI ∆t - n IntE ∆t = Internal moves (enrolled from other municipalities-cancelled to others municipalities) = 234190 – 228813= 5377

19. FOREIGN NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE A. Direct estimate Net (International) Migration: + 391682 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391682 – 68821 + 5377 = + 328238

20. Equation of Foreign Population (Italy 2010) 4,570,317 = 4,235,059 + 72,958 + 328,238 + (-65,938) 4,570,317 - 4,235,059 = + 72,958 + 328,238 - 65,938 335,258 = 335,258 Total Increase = 335,258 Net Migration (other reasons compr.): +391,682 – 68,821 + 5,377 = +328238 Natural Increase = +72,958 Naturalised = -65,938

21. Foreign population increase (Italy 2010) 4570317 - 4235059 = +335258

22. Resident foreign population at 31 December and demographic balance from 9 October 2011 to 31 December 2011. Italy EXERCISE Calculate the equation of the foreign population by distinguish each component

23. Foreign contribution to the increase During the 2010 (but the same happened in the previous years…) the total population increase in Italy could be disaggregated in two component:

24. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE B. Indirect estimate Estimation of net migration ( n NM  t ) by the availability of natural increase ( n B  t - n D  t ) and population (type n) in two points ( n P t and n Pt-1 ): n NM  t = n P t - n Pt -1 – ( n B  t - n D  t )

25. Example: Italy, 1992-2001 Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773 Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994 Total increase = + 223 Births (1992-2001) = 5,416 Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592 Natural Increase = - 176 Net Migration = ?

26. Example: Italy, 1992-2001 Population at 1 January 1992 = 56,773 Population at 1 January 2002 = 56,994 Total increase = + 221 Births (1992-2001) = 5,416 Deaths (1992-2001) = 5,592 Natural Increase = - 176 Net Migration = 221 – (-176) = + 397

27. NET MIGRATION ESTIMATE B. Indirect estimate Weakness You can estimate only the balance (no information about gross flows) in the case of a sub-national area you can estimate the internal balance + international balance weakness of the measurement in developing countries

28. 1. Indirect estimate : Foreign Born Population Case study Population balance equation b P t = b P t-1 - b D  t + b I  t - b E  t then: b NM = b I  t - b E  t = b P t - b P t-1 + b D  t “Reduced Equation” (… births are lacking!)

29. 2. Indirect estimate: Foreign Citizen Population Population equation f P t = f P t-1 + f B  t - f D  t + f I  t - f E  t - f N  t Then: f NM = f I  t - f E  t = f P t – f P t - - f B  t + f D  t + f N  t

30. MIGRATION INTENSITY OF INFLOW AND OUTFLOW 1. Interested to both the migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow 2. Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate

31. Migratory flows → in and out flow, gross flow and net flow Considers as (Boyle, Halfacree, Robinson, 1998) IMi = Gross In-Migration, the volume of in- migration moving into a place i OMi = Gross Out-Migration, the volume of out-migration moving from a place i In this case Net Migration is defined as the algebraic sum of gross flows: NMi = IMi - OMi (as in the previous slides…)

36. Standardisation by population consistency, age, sex … → gross rate, specific rate To allow comparison among different places or the same place over time the measures are standardized by dividing the volumes by the average population of the place, so obtaining a RATE

37. RATES IMRi = IMi / Pi x 1,000 that is in-migration rate OMRi = OMi / Pi x 1,000 out-migration rate NMRi = (IMi - OMi) / Pi x 1,000 net-migration rate with Pi average population, that is the population on average counted during all the year (or during all the period)

38. Average population A good approximation of this average population can be obtained: a) using the population observed at the mid-term b) using a semi-sum of the population at the initial and the final period considered. Noting that in the case in which the observation of flows is made across a non-year period (for example, more than one year) the calculus must take into account this odd temporal reference.

39. The crude migration rate: an example Total Population (Italy, 2010)Foreign Population (Italy, 2010) 1 January603403281 January4235059 31 December6062644231 December4570317 Average (1)60483385Average (1)4402688 Immigration (2)458856Immigration (2)424499 Emigration (3)78771Emigration (3)32817 Net Migration (4)380085Net Migration (4)391682 Immigration Rate (2)/(1)7,6 Immigration Rate (2)/(1)96,4 Emigration Rate (3)/(1)1,3 Emigration Rate (3)/(1)7,5 Net Migration Rate (4)/(1)6,3 Net Migration Rate (4)/(1)89,0

40. Region Internal External Other causes Total Piemonte1,06,6-1,46,2 Valle d'Aosta1,75,3-1,25,8 Lombardia1,56,6-1,56,6 Trentino-Alto Adige2,35,4-0,96,8 Bolzano-Bozen1,94,8-0,76,0 Trento2,76,0-1,17,6 Veneto0,46,7-1,95,2 Friuli-Venezia Giulia1,35,2-1,55,0 Liguria1,85,3-1,85,3 Emilia-Romagna2,07,6-1,97,7 Toscana1,47,1-1,76,8 Umbria0,67,9-1,37,2 Marche0,46,6-1,85,2 Lazio1,67,3-1,07,9 Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). Centre-North Regions

41. Crude Net Migration Rate by Region - 2011 (per 1.000 resident). South Regions RegionInternalExternalOther Total cause _____________________________________________ Abruzzo 0,9 5,4- 1,0 5,3 Molise 0,8 3,1- 0,3 3,6 Campania- 3,7 2,5- 0,3- 1,5 Puglia- 2,1 1,9 - 0,4- 0,6 Basilicata- 2,7 2,2- 0,1- 0,6 Calabria- 3,5 3,4- 0,3- 0,4 Sicilia- 1,7 2,3- 0,6 0,0 Sardegna- 0,2 1,9 0,0 1,7 ITALIA 0.1* 5,3- 1,1 4,3 Nord 1,3 6,6- 1,6 6,3 Nord-ovest 1,4 6,5- 1,5 6,4 Nord-est 1,3 6,8- 1,8 6,3 Centro 1,3 7,2- 1,3 7,2 Mezzogiorno- 2,2 2,5- 0,4- 0,1 Sud- 2,6 2,7- 0,4- 0,3 Isole- 1,4 2,2- 0,4 0,4

42. Example Calculate a immigration pluri- annual rate (IMR), considering: nP 1.1.2010 =56,000,000 nP 1.1.2008 =55,000,000 IM 2008-2009 = 900,000

43. Example: solution nP 1.1.2010 =56,000,000 nP 1.1.2008 =55,000,000 IM 2008-2009 = 900,000 Average Population (2008-2009) = AP 2008-2009 AP 2008-2009 = (56,000,000+55,000,000)/2 * 2 = 111,000,000 Finally: IMR 2008-2009 = 900,000 / 111,000,000 = 8,11 per thousands

44. Emigration and immigration rate: a paradox The meaning of the out and in-migration rate unfortunately is not the same. While OMR is clearly a measure of propensity to go out of a population, IMR has not the same interpretation, because the propensity to enter to a specific place i moving from j different places depends of the propensity of these j different places to generate flows towards i. Clearly OMR is a measure of propensity (in other words it is a proxy of a probability), IMR is a measure of impact.

45. SPECIFIC RATES IMRi,x = IMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 that is in- migration age-specific rate OMRi,x = OMi,x / Pi,x per 1,000 out-migration age-specific rate NMRi,x = (IMi,x - OMi,x) / Pi,x per 1,000 net- migration age-specific rate with Pi,x average population at age x, that is the yearly population in age x on average

46. Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991 age xPx,tPx,t+1AverageOutflowsOutflow Specific Rate Population OAx,t (Abr.) OIx,t (Interreg.OARx,tOIRx,t 02924252799832862042371072 12861252817732839495222839 2287855283370285612,54712643 32802352852892827624202406 42814882788842801864072034 5291416280661286038,54291779 6295628290391293009,54091855 7303494294793299143,54231542 83123923027203075563931490 9319078311715315396,54361465 103241593192533217063711303 113361573241233301404671689 123585773360693473233931254 13372766358533365649,53931219 143934003726963830483781323 15416737393242404989,53781340 16437236416509426872,54381442

47. Specific Rate: an Example. Outflows (abs. value and rate). Male population, Italy 1991 age xPx,tPx,t+1AverageOutflows Outflow Specific Rate Population OAx,t (Abr.) OIx,t (Interreg. OEAx,tOEIx,t 029242527998328620423710720,83,7 128612528177328394952228391,810,0 2287855283370285612,547126431,69,3 328023528528928276242024061,58,5 428148827888428018640720341,57,3 5291416280661286038,542917791,56,2 6295628290391293009,540918551,46,3 7303494294793299143,542315421,45,2 831239230272030755639314901,34,8 9319078311715315396,543614651,44,6 1032415931925332170637113031,24,1 1133615732412333014046716891,45,1 1235857733606934732339312541,13,6 13372766358533365649,539312191,13,3 1439340037269638304837813231,03,5 15416737393242404989,537813400,93,3 16437236416509426872,543814421,03,4

48. Male outflows rate (interregional and external) by age. Italy, 2010.

49. The age-model of OEF and OEI is quite the same

50. Total Mobility Rate: an example age xPx,tPx,t+1Aver.Outflows Outflow Specific Rate Pop.CFx,tCIx,tOEFx,tOEIx,t 029242527998328620423710720,83,7 128612528177328394952228391,810,0 2287855283370285612,547126431,69,3 328023528528928276242024061,58,5 428148827888428018640720341,57,3 …………………… …………………… 79124564137066130815453400,32,6 80 +63511667119065315327519730,43,0 Total275473712754844027547906378531694001,46,1 TMT 103,5446,1 TMT: Sum of age-specific mobility rates

51. Total Mobility Rate: meaning Interregional Total Mobility Rate = iTMR iTMR = 446,1 per 1000 resident that’s 0,446 per capita, in other words the number of interregional movements attributed to a person during his “fictitious” life

52. B. Distance and direction of flow origin and destination of the migration flows is specified Model and method → gravitational model, log- linear model