1. This report is solely for the use of the client organisation. This material was used by HVR Consulting Services Ltd during a presentation and does not include a record of all discussions HVR Consulting Services Ltd System Dynamics for Naval C3I Dr John Holt Prepared for 21 ISMOR 2004 September 2004

2. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20042 CONTENTS 1.Introduction 2.What is SD? 3.Case study 4.Discussion

3. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20043 INTRODUCTION SD has been applied to a wide variety of C3I studies over the years Examples include: – Naval C3I effectiveness study based on the work for DOR(SEA), 1997 HVR involved with a number of other companies Produced model with SD and Mission Oriented Analysis BUT seen as overly complex and other methods used – Many attempts to apply to land HQs Geoff Coyle conducted work for NATO C3 Agency HVR work for Canadian authorities modelling Joint Force HQ Broader concept modelling of effectiveness often also has representation of command and control. Examples include: – Attack of high value mobile targets – Mine counter measures Communication between mine clearance vessels – BADGER Impact of information flows on AD asset performance

4. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20044 STUDY BACKGROUND AND AIM Dstl Naval Systems Department was conducting a study into maritime combat system interoperability Within this study, it was decided to evaluate using System Dynamics (SD) – Focus of this study to Support Dynamic Rules of Engagement (ROEs) Where appropriate, incorporate earlier C3I modelling where appropriate, including lessons (e.g. not too detailed modelling).

5. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20045 CONTENTS 1.Introduction 2.What is SD? 3.Case study 4.Discussion

6. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20046 A rigorous method for the qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information, organisational boundaries and strategies; which facilitates quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for the design of system structure and behaviour - Wolstenholme (1990) WHAT IS SYSTEM DYNAMICS? A definition from the text books Certainly sounds good so far….. A rigorous method for the qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information, organisational boundaries and strategies; which facilitates quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for the design of system structure and behaviour - Wolstenholme (1990)

7. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20047 REPRESENTING STOCKS AND FLOWS Bath tub: Stock and flow diagram: Integral equation: Differential equation: After Sterman, “Business Dynamics”

8. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20048 CONTENTS 1.Introduction 2.What is SD? 3.Case study 4.Discussion

9. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 20049 REPRESENTING DYNAMIC RULES Of ENGAGEMENT (ROEs) FOR NAVAL C3I Interoperability issues, particularly ROEs – Incorrect ROE reduces use of sensors Uncoordinated/ poor picture compilation – Detected objects not appearing on an operator display – Multiple tracks on a single track being transmitted to a force on datalink Problem areas used to assess usefulness of SD approach

10. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200410 Influence Diagram Notation Used to represent and investigate relationships between variables in a system and to identify Feedback loops Intervention points in a system Establish the structure of a quantitative model The arrows have a ‘-’on or a ‘+’ by the arrow ‘+’ indicates that as the cause increased the effect increases ‘-’ indicates that as the cause increases the effect decreases D indicates where there are significant delays in the system If + And if - INFLUENCED VARIABLE INFLUENCING VARIABLE INFLUENCED VARIABLE INFLUENCING VARIABLE D +

11. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200411 HIGH LEVEL C3I INFLUENCE DIAGRAM Belligerent activity Picture processed Picture promulgated Decisions taken by commanders in the force Actions taken + + + + - D1 D2 D3 ROE restricts weapon usage, navigation etc - - - ROE limits sensor usage Limits sensor detection range Limits sensor availability + +

12. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200412 DETAILED INFLUENCE DIAGRAM & BASELINE PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS Tracks with correct response Correctly transmitted tracks Correctly identified tracks Confirmed tracks + + + Real World objects Correct plots Tentative tracks + Tracks requiring response + - + + + + + + + + - + 0.03 mins 0.01 mins 0.08 mins 3.00 mins 0.03 mins 1.18 mins 0.66 Correct response 0.34 Incorrect response Based on earlier C3I modelling from earlier studies Picture processed Picture promulgated Decisions/ Actions

13. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200413 Tracks with correct response Correctly transmitted tracks Incorrectly transmitted track Correctly identified tracks Incorrectly identified tracks Confirmed tracks False tracks Missed tracks + + + + + + Real World Objects + - + Incorrectly filtered tracks - + Correct plots Tentative tracks + + + + Tracks requiring response + - Incorrect plots + + + DETAILED INFLUENCE DIAGRAM Detected tracks not appearing on display + + Multiple tracks per object +

14. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200414 DETAILED INFLUENCE DIAGRAM Tracks with correct response Correctly transmitted tracks Incorrectly transmitted track Correctly identified tracks Incorrectly identified tracks Confirmed tracks False tracks Missed tracks + + + + + + Real World Objects + - + Incorrectly filtered tracks - + Correct plots Tentative tracks + + + Inappropriate restrictions on sensors Reduced sensor usage (FC radar) Inappropriate ROE Attack friendly/ neutral units in error with insufficient data + Risk to blue and neutral units + Tracks requiring response + - Incorrect plots + + + Multiple tracks per object + + + + - Detected tracks not appearing -

15. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200415 SCENARIO Event chronology for platforms entering engagement area

16. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200416 INITIAL PROCESS MODELLING - STOCK FLOW DIAGRAM

17. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200417 Confirmed Tracks <RATE CONFIRM TRACK> Confirm track rate <RATE IDENTIFY TRACK> Track identify rate Incorrectly identified tracks Incorrectly filtered tracks Incorrectly identified track rate <PROPORTION CORRECTLY ID'D> Incorrectly filtered rate 1 DETECTED OBJECTS LOST & MULTIPLE TRACKS ON DATA LINK Correctly Identified Tracks Correctly Transmitted Tracks Track transmit rate Incorrectly transmitted tracks <MULTIPLE TRACK FACTOR> Incorrect tx & filtered tracks Multiple tracks Multiple tracks on a single track rate 1 Mult tracks transmitted rate <RATE TRANSMIT TRACK> <RATE TRANSMIT TRACK>

18. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200418 INITIAL PROCESS-BASED MODEL RESULTS (NB Tracks and times unchanged from default) Condition Tracks Correctly Responded Time to Reach Steady State (Min) Baseline Results 6.6 3.4 37.5 Tracks Incorrectly Responded Incorrect ROE - reduced sensors - Proportion of Correctly Id’d Tracks reduced - 1 to 0.8 5.3 4.7 37.5 Detected Track Does Not Appear Operator Display Rate of Track Loss 0.1 (1 out of 10) 5.9 3.1 36.5 Multiple Tracks on Single Track transmitted on datalink 6.63.437.5 Changes to the Baseline Results

19. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200419 BASELINE Impact of bottleneck caused by the time to correctly identify tracks

20. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200420 TRACK LOSS DUE TO DETECTED OBJECTS NOT APPEARING Impact of loss of correct plots reduced by 0.1

21. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200421 CONTENTS 1.Introduction 2.What is SD? 3.Case study 4.Discussion

22. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200422 DISCUSSION Potentially good for exploratory modelling of problem issues – Enables a very wide range of factors to be represented – Gaining insights more important than numerical predictions – Speed of development It is a good precursor to more detailed study for which one can use – Discrete Event Simulation – or more SD The example revealed aspects of behaviour for the issues under study Provides valuable shaping for way forward, which ever study method is chosen.

23. © HVR Consulting Services Ltd 200423 QUESTIONS? HVR Consulting Services Ltd. Selborne House Mill Lane Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ U.K. Tel: +44 (0)1420 87977 Fax: +44 (0)1420 89819 Web: www.HVRGroup.com John Holt john.holt@hvr-csl.co.uk CERTIFICATE NO. 943422