1. The Concept of the “CLIOS Process”: Integrating the study of physical and policy systems using Mexico City as an example Presentation to the Engineering Systems Division Symposium March 2004 Co-Authors: Rebecca S. Dodder Joseph M. Sussman Joshua B. McConnell

2. Overview Defining CLIOS Need for a new process Overview of the CLIOS Process Mexico City as an example of the CLIOS Process Relation to other tools and processes Additional applications CLIOS as a systems approach

3. Defining CLIOS Complex –The system is composed of a group of interrelated units (subsystems) Large-scale –Impacts are large in magnitude, and often long-lived and of large-scale geographical extent Integrated –Subsystems within CLIOS are, closely coupled through feedback loops Open System –CLIOS explicitly include social, political and economic aspects

4. CLIOS and Engineering Systems CLIOS can describe many different systems, including natural and social systems The systems of most interest to us are Engineering Systems, a special case of a CLIOS in which technology plays an important role –Technology can define system boundaries –Technology can be the integrator of the system –Technology can generate a large-scale impacts on the state and “performance” of the overall system A CLIOS can also incorporate several technological subsystems

5. Motivation for a New Process “Nested complexity” –Physical system is “nested” inside a policy system –Both are complex and interdependent –Must understand the structure of each, in order to understand overall CLIOS dynamics A variety of tools and processes must be employed –Quantitative engineering and economic models for the physical system –More qualitative institutional, organizational and stakeholder frameworks for the policy system –Integration of physical and policy system analyses

6. Motivation for a New Process Growing number of interdisciplinary analyses of complex systems, often with little guidance on the overal structure of those analyses We need a disciplined way of studying a complex policy situation –Linear, step-by-step, yet iterative mechanism –It is pretty easy to miss something - routinizing the process can help (but is not a guarantee) The CLIOS Process is one (but only one) way

7. CLIOS Process: Three Phases A CLIOS representation (Phase 1) is created and analyzed with reference to both its “structure” and “behavior” Then, in the design and evaluation (Phase 2) and implementation (Phase 3) phases, one can: –Measure the system’s performance along its various dimensions –Identify and implement strategies for system improvement, given the system problems and goals that motivate the analysis

8. CLIOS Process: 12 Steps

9. Example: Representing Mexico City Diagrammatic approach to the representation phase Helps avoid the omission of salient factors Sets up the structure/dynamics at various levels of detail

10. Institutional Change in CLIOS Institutional changes can be an important part of the overarching strategy for implementation Create, strengthen, or break, weaken certain connections between the policy and physical systems Redefine the relationships between actors on the policy sphere –Flows of data, resources, approval, ideas, goals... –Lines of control or coordination –Hierarchical or flat organizational and inter-organizational relationships –Cooperation or conflict

11. Example: Institutional Change in MC Mexico City provides a clear example of how changes in the physical system can impact the types of policy- institutional structures that are needed to manage certain issues. The urbanized area has progressed beyond the Federal District across state boundaries to the State of Mexico, and more recently, to the State of Hidalgo. In this manner, the physical system changes generated a tension across the policy sphere, which necessitated new institutions at the metropolitan-level.

12. CLIOS Process: Supporting Tools A high-level “meta-process” for moving from initial problem definition, to design, evaluation and implementation of solutions for a CLIOS The CLIOS Process serves as an organizing framework for the lower-level tools and processes –The 12-Step Process tells you what to do –The how is left up to the analyst(s) Range of possible tools, from various perspectives, used to carry out the CLIOS Process: –Technical/engineering –Economic/financial –Organizational/institutional/political/social

13. CLIOS Process: A Christmas Tree The CLIOS Process can be thought of as a Christmas Tree, with the various processes and tools used in the analysis comprising the ornaments hanging on the tree. Structure of the “tree” stays constant, while the choice of “ornaments” hanging on the tree varies to suit the taste or needs of the user In interdisciplinary teams, –Each member can chose their processes and tools –Yet, they remain conscious of where their work fits within the overarching structure of the 12 steps

14. CLIOS Process: A Christmas Tree Source: Ali Mostashari

15. Mapping to Tools and Process

18. More Applications Strong emphasis thus far in transportation systems –Applied in a range of contexts Mexico City: Transportation and Air Quality Malaysia: Public Transportation Regional Strategic Transportation Planning (RSTP) (Sussman/Sgouridis) –Explored the interactions of transportation systems with environmental, IT, land use, and other physical subsystems Future work Application to additional Engineering Systems--telecom, energy, national missile defense and others Methodological advances, ex: stakeholder involvement in modeling (Mostashari/Sussman)

19. CLIOS Process as a Systems Approach Qualitative as well as quantitative factors Necessary step if systems thinking is to be applied to social and political systems Not searching for a system optimum Focuses instead on the tradeoffs and uncertainties that are more characteristic of the political process Explicitly includes the policy world as a part of the system Recognizes changes to existing policy structures as possible and sometimes necessary Clear, comprehensive and structured process for moving from analysis to implementation within a single system framework Yet, allows flexibility in the use of a range of tools and processes to carry out the actual analysis