1. BRICS Economic Research Forum Conference Eustáquio J. Reis IPEA, Brazil New Delhi, February 2012

2. Forum Agenda Coping with the vagaries of capital flows – Global savings to finance infrastructure Monetary policy coordination Economic prospects for developed economies – Impacts on BRICS – Policy coordination possibilities

3. Outline Economic prospect for developed economies Implications for BRICS Possibilities of policy coordination – Fiscal – Trade – Finance Long run perspectives

4. Economic Prospects for Developed Economies Growth slowdown in the aftermath of weak recovery with significant risks of another major downturn – Sovereign debt crisis in Europe Fiscal tightening Increased sovereign spread Consumer and business confidence Domino effect (PIGIS) – Japan earth quake – Iran conflict

5. IMF-Jan2012: Baseline Scenario

6. DESA-WESP: Baseline Scenario

7. DESA-WESP: Donwside Scenario

8. Implications for BRICS Trade shocks expeced to be mild – Trade volumes  moderate positive growth – Corrections in commodity prices surges last two years Financial volatility – Speculative flows and exchange overvaluation – Reserve accumulation: costs and benefits – Capital flow regulation and restrictions  effectiveness?

9. Policy coordination Fiscal space Monetary restriction Brilateral agreements and regional trade arrengements Financing infrastructure International financial reforms – Multiple currencies – Global currency

10. Long Run Prospects Geography, culture, language Size – Population and GDP – Regional leadership Share of he “region” Second partner Staregic arms control Long run – Investment rate – Schooling

11. BRIC: Population, 1980-2050

12. BRIC: Long Run Growth, 1980-2050 (CEPII projections 2011-2050)

13. BRIC: Average Saving Rates, 1980-2050 (CEPII projections 2011-2050)

14. BRIC: GDP per capita, 1980-2050 (CEPII projections; WB PPP US$ 1985)

15. BRIC: Avg Yrs of Schooling,1980-2050 (CEPII projections; WB PPP US$ 1985)

16. BRIC: GDP growth, 2008-2013 (IMF forecast 2012-13)