1. 1 National Weather Service Response to Partner Issues Eli Jacks, Chief Fire and Public Weather Services Branch 1) Intended Use of “Tornado Emergency” 2) Too many counties in Storm Based Warnings 2) Too many counties in Storm Based Warnings 3) Watches and Warnings on Feb. 11, 2009 3) Watches and Warnings on Feb. 11, 2009

2. 2 Use of “Tornado Emergency” Identified as “Best Practice” in 3 NOAA Service AssessmentsIdentified as “Best Practice” in 3 NOAA Service Assessments Since 1999 – 6 per year (30% without confirmation)Since 1999 – 6 per year (30% without confirmation) New directive will require confirmation (visual report or radar observation of debris)New directive will require confirmation (visual report or radar observation of debris) –Reduces to an average of 4 events per year In exceedingly rare situations, when a severe threat to human life and catastrophic damage from a tornado is imminent or ongoing, the forecaster may insert the headline "...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR [GEOGRAPHIC AREA]...". Additionally, in such a situation, this headline should only be used when reliable sources confirm a tornado, or there is clear radar evidence of the existence of a damaging tornado such as the observation of debris. --NWSI 10-511 (final draft)

3. 3 Too Many Counties In Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Approximately 1% of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings include more than 12 countiesApproximately 1% of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings include more than 12 counties Change to NWSI 10-511: “Warnings should contain no more than 12 counties”Change to NWSI 10-511: “Warnings should contain no more than 12 counties” Next Generation Warning Tool Sub-team looking at improved warning formats (text and graphics)Next Generation Warning Tool Sub-team looking at improved warning formats (text and graphics) - To include both our full text messages and options for parsing to cell phone text messages - To include both our full text messages and options for parsing to cell phone text messages - Will involve partners - Will involve partners

4. 4 Watches, Warnings, and Wind February 11, 2009 Watches, Warnings, and Wind February 11, 2009 Fast moving vigorous upper troughFast moving vigorous upper trough Narrow line of intense convectionNarrow line of intense convection Weak InstabilityWeak Instability Damaging Winds & Isolated TornadoesDamaging Winds & Isolated Tornadoes 12Z 00Z 500 MB

5. 5 Across the Eastern Half of the U. S. in 21 hours

6. 6 High Shear – Low Instability Environments Difficult from both watch and warning standpointDifficult from both watch and warning standpoint Feb 11, 2009 F4 Franklin TN 12/24/88

7. 7 Watches – Feb 11, 2009 Six Watches During Event:Six Watches During Event: - First three – TOR - Second three – SVR DESPITE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME DUE TO DRYING ALOFT AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM. LOW AND MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ALONG THE LINE AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. _ -- From Tornado Watch 16 Tornado Watch #16 – Issued 11:40AM

8. 8 Overlay Reports on Warnings Approximate Projections - Tornado Reports..(2) Wind Reports/HI…(353/3) Hail Reports/LG…(4/0) Total Reports……(359) ….Winds >65 kts Wind Gust 92 MPH at Pittsburgh Airport This Warning is Too Big 16 TOR 2 Tornadoes

9. 9 Summary High Shear / Low Instability Events are challenging from a watch and warning standpointHigh Shear / Low Instability Events are challenging from a watch and warning standpoint NWS increasing effort on addressing very large severe thunderstorm warningsNWS increasing effort on addressing very large severe thunderstorm warnings Too many tornado warnings - - Ideas?Too many tornado warnings - - Ideas?