1. The role of evaluation in transitions from evaluation to valuing progress Dr. Derk Loorbach 10-02-2012 Dr. Derk Loorbach 10-02-2012

2. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions The evaluation challenge of transitions Sustainable development requires non-linear, unpredictable, unmanageable change Requires insight in transitional dynamics and ways to stimulate these Policy evaluation is perhaps useless, transitions require normative forward-looking evaluation

3. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transitions fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)system –culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms –structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective routines –practices: behaviour, operation, implementation  Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processes

4. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transition levels Macro-level: landscape autonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes Meso-level: regime Dominant structure, culture and practices Micro-level : niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actors Based on Geels and Kemp, 2001

5. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transition phases Sustainable society? health care energy waste waterconstruction mobility finance predevelopment take-off acceleration stabilisation Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

6. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Source: Stockholm Resilience Center and DRIFT, 2010

7. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Fundamental issues Something new (innovation) is something else than something improved Prediction is impossible, but insight is necessary Sustainability (breakthroughs) come from multiple domains  It is more about impact and process than outcome and output

8. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Transition management Monitoring, evaluating and learning Developing images coalitions and transition- agendas Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and envisioning

9. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Role of evaluation and monitoring Support learning about the transition Integrated part of the governance cycle (4-5yrs) So far mainly experimentally applied at program level Focus on patterns, dyanmics, pathways, upscaling and framing

10. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Rotterdam Climate Initiative participatory monitoring RCI program: 50% CO2 reduction in 2025 –80 million budget –Dozens of projects Reflection role Drift –Participatory TM based evaluation –Stepwise transitioning of the program –Discussing goals, strategy and actions

11. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Goals transitionmonitoring Awareness (What are we doing?) Reflection (are we doing the right thing?) Reorientation (which vision and goals?) Strategy development

12. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Framework

13. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions From goals to pathways 2010201420202025 CO2 reduction goals - 8 Mton12 Mton34 Mton CO2 absolute30 Mton28 Mton22 Mton12 Mton mobbuiltIndmobbuiltIndmobbuiltIndmobbuiltInd Transitionindicat ors/ Subgoals 0,35839 kton 65,60,30800 kton 60,00,22600 kton 50, 0 0,14400 kton 32,5 Processindicator 10,02 % 9,7 % 0,2 (R) 10 % 20%0,1530%40%0,1 2 50%100 % 0,1 Processindicator 20,02 % 2%0,3 (C) 10 % 80%0, 330%100 % 0,2 2 50%100 % 0,15 Processindicator 300,5 (E) 3000,5200 0 0, 35 420 0 0,25

14. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

15. Transition ‘evaluation’ Using the transition perspective to identify societal dynamics and policy-society interaction Tool to stuimulate collective ‘framing’ and ‘discourse’ Intsrument to ‘transitionize’ existing policy Instrument to ‘measure’ transition and impact of transition governance?

16. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions Key challenges/questions Multiple influences, interaction and interventions that cannot be quantified or correlated How to map patterns and impacts in a way that they provide a basis for governance What can transition monitoring learn from environmental evaluation Does transition evaluation imply a transition in evaluation?