1. Understanding Science
12. The Galileo Gambit
© Colin Frayn, 2015

2. Introduction The Galileo Gambit
“They rejected Galileo, just like you’re rejecting me, but then it turned out he was right!”
Implication: The pseudoscientist is also right
Galileo Galilei ( )
Argued in favour of Heliocentrism
The Sun is at the centre of the Solar System
The Copernican Model
Galileo supported his beliefs with evidence
Galileo was largely opposed for religious reasons
© Colin Frayn, 2015

3. History Copernican theory Darwinian Evolution (1858-9)
Was already accepted by several others
Galileo also backed it up with evidence
It was heavily opposed, even by other astronomers
… but difficult to disentangle the influence of the Church
Darwinian Evolution (1858-9)
The original papers weren’t met with much of a response
Opposed largely for religious reasons
Also widely accepted among scientific circles
Relativity (1905)
Einstein backed up his theories with mathematics
Very rapidly accepted
Has since been backed up with evidence
© Colin Frayn, 2015

4. Counter Examples
There are lots of examples of really big discoveries that were readily accepted
The existence of galaxies (Hubble, )
Harlow Shapley opposed the idea but soon changed his mind
Hubble proved it using observations of variable stars in Andromeda
Cosmic Expansion (Hubble, 1929)
Initially opposed by some, but soon became widely accepted
Hubble measured distance and recession speed of various galaxies
Dark Matter (Various, 1930s; Rubin, 1970s)
Not directly visible, but identified by its effects
Stars in the outer parts of galaxies move far too quickly
© Colin Frayn, 2015

5. Extraordinary Claims Not every extraordinary claim is false
“No evidence” does not mean “not true”
…but “evidence against” is different!
Extraordinary = low Bayesian Prior
Requires exceptionally high support
What about impact?
Consider both?
Expectation
Probability * Result
P (H | E) = P (E | H) * P (H)
P (E)
Posterior
Support
Prior
© Colin Frayn, 2015

6. Closed Mindedness Science deals in probabilities
Closing off some lines of investigation is a good thing
Especially if the chance of it being true is zeroid
Science doesn’t say “never”!
Hypotheses can be closed off or re-opened
Closed minds, like doors, can be opened with the right key
In this case, evidence
© Colin Frayn, 2015

7. Advice How to get a Nobel prize
If you’re a scientist : Get high quality evidence
If you’re a pseudoscientist : Maybe write a book?
Science is resistant to change for good reason
Barrier against falsehoods
Like an immune system
Peer review, evidence gathering
Replication
A tower should be built on a strong foundation
© Colin Frayn, 2015

8. Summary Galileo Gambit is a false analogy
Revolutionary ideas do get accepted
They just need to provide evidence!
“All great ideas are initially rejected”
does not imply
“All rejected ideas are great”
Rely on filtering based on Bayesian priors
Iteratively investigate the most plausible / highest impact
© Colin Frayn, 2015