1. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Outlook for California’s Electricity Supply and Land Use Implications BLM National Lands Conference David Maul Chris Tooker California Energy Commission June 13, 2001

2. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Topics California’s Electricity System Overview Current Supply Activity Governor’s Executive Orders Land Use Implications Proposal to Work Together

3. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Energy Commission State licensing authority 50 MW+ thermal power plants Related facilities Time certain process Public process Comprehensive review

4. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California’s Electric System Over 1,200 electrical generators Over 38,000 miles of transmission lines Linked to western North America 12.9 million customers Average use - 624 gigawatt hours / day Projected peak demand - 58,000 MW 40% of western U.S. market

5. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION The Interconnected Western Grid Page 1

6. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION

7. WASH. +18.3% ORE. +16.7% IDAHO +24.3% NEV. +50.6% UTAH +23.6% COLO. +23.1% ARIZ. +30.4% TEXAS +18.0% FLORIDA +16.8% GEORGIA +20.2% N.D. -0.8% IOWA +3.3% W. VA. +0.7% MAINE +2.0% MASS. +2.6% R.I. -1.3% CONN. -0.2% N.Y. +1.1% PA +0.9% Slowest-growing/shrinking states Fastest-growing states A Country in Transition Percentage changes in population from April 1, 1990 through July 1, 1999

8. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Aging Facilities

9. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Non-Coincident Peak Demand Reserve Margins 1993 - 1998 Page 8

10. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Summer 2001 Coincident Peak Demand Under Different Temperature Probabilities And A Functional Competitive Market (MW) Total Available Supply 61,184 MW Supply Less Expected Outages

11. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Summer 2001 Coincident Peak Demand Under Different Temperature Probabilities And “Outages” Equal to Jan. 11, 2001 (MW) Total Available Supply 61,184 MW Supply Less Outages Reported by CAISO on Jan. 11, 2001

12. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Power Plants Off-Line 1999: 1000 - 5000 MW 2000: 2000 - 10,000 MW 2001: 10,000 - 15,000 MW

13. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Options to Resolve Crisis Conservation –operations –investment funds Increased Generation –peakers –repowers/retool/rerates –baseload –new sites Market –debt –market structure –correct market dysfunctions Need balanced strategy

14. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Recent Actions - Supply New natural gas generation: –28 plants approved - 11.283 MW –1,284 MW to be on-line by 7/1/01 –17 plants in review - 7,335 MW –46 applications within 3 months - 11,664 MW New renewable generation –217 MW on-line this summer State (DWR) contracting for power

15. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Power Plants Approved by the CEC Since April, 1999

16. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Emergency Power Plants Approved by CEC

17. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Recent Actions - Process Established 4-month process –Peakers Established 6-month process –Clean projects Prepared Developers Guide –Available on CEC Website at: –www.energy.ca.gov Conducted Siting Process OII

18. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Governor’s Executive Orders 6 Executive Orders Issued February 8 Focused on power plants –Planning –Siting –Permitting –Construction –Operation

19. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Governor’s EO’s Licensing Maintained 12-month AFC Maintained 6-month AFC Reestablished 4-month AFC Established 21-day emergency permit Established 45-day amendment Established 7-day amendment

20. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 1 in 5 Year Peak Demand 1 in 2 Year Peak Demand California Load/Resource Balance (ISO area with 7% Operating Reserve at Coincident Peak) Existing generation excludes 2,500 MW for outages

21. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Value of Energy Efficiency Reduction in Expected Peak Demand –Jan 2001: -6.2% (-2,091 MW) –Feb 2001: -8.0% (-2,578 MW) –March 2001: -9.2% (-2,967 MW) –April 2001: -9.0% (-2,866 MW) –May 2001: -10.4% (-3,595 MW)

22. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Impact of Conservation it will result in a demand saving of 2,000 MW = 4 Big Power Plants If 10,000,000 households shut off two 100 Watt light bulbs at peak time,

23. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Future Forecast June could be ugly July/August are better 2002 is much better 2003 could be awash in power Energy and air quality are now on the forefront of everyone’s minds

24. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy/Land Use Implications Power plants –Water supply lines –Roads Transmission lines Natural gas pipelines

25. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy/Land Use Planning Implications Power plants –Difficult to forecast location –Complex issues normally resolved successfully in licensing case –Planning best handled from a private developer and land management perspective

26. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy/Land Use Planning Implications Transmission lines Determine need for new facilities –CEC’s OII –WGA’s TL needs study –CEC/LLNL environmental constraints study Determine land management constraints

27. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy/Land Use Planning Implications Natural gas pipelines Determine need for new facilities –CEC’s Natural Gas White Paper –Industry proposals –CEC’s power plant gas demand forecast Determine land management constraints

28. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Interstate Pipeline Proposals

29. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Intrastate Pipeline Proposals

30. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy/Land Use Planning Proposal Need to work together –Energy needs –Land management constraints Propose to initiate process in Fall 2001

31. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Energy/Land Use Planning Proposal Objective: meet reasonable energy facility needs in a manner sensitive to safety, environmental, and land management constraints

32. CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Questions?