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Small Group Evolution Whitman Richards Scott Atran et al, Marc Sageman Rajesh Kasturirangan, Kobi Gal AFOSR MURI Review 17 Dec 07.

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Presentation on theme: "Small Group Evolution Whitman Richards Scott Atran et al, Marc Sageman Rajesh Kasturirangan, Kobi Gal AFOSR MURI Review 17 Dec 07."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Small Group Evolution Whitman Richards Scott Atran et al, Marc Sageman Rajesh Kasturirangan, Kobi Gal AFOSR MURI Review 17 Dec 07

3 The Problem Typical Group Representation: Number of Graphical Forms: n=6: 110 n=8: 850 n=10: 10 million n=12: 150 billion A Picture is NOT worth 1000 words !!

4 Leadership: Bonding: Diversity: L = 1.0 B = 1.0 D = 0.92 Proposed Solution: Three subgraphs that capture key properties of group formation

5 L ~ normalized sum of diff in vertex degrees B ~ avg. number of among vertex & neighbors D ~ num. K 2 separated by at least two edge steps (Non-adjacent clusters of Kn increase diversity.) L, B, D parameters are not independent Leadership: Bonding: Diversity: L = 0.67 (1.0) B = 0.875 (1.0) D = 0.33 (0.92)

6 Question Can only three parameters (L,B,D) adequately describe a group during its evolution (i.e, is this compression of pictorial information sufficient) ? Ans: Yes ! but ……. modeling the evolutionary dynamics will require the application of theories for strategic play….

7 An Example of Group Formation & Evolution (to illustrate strategic aspects and model form)

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12 Note: adding a cluster reduces overall bonding

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14 Equilibrium? What’s Next?

15 Small Group Evolution: example

16 CASE STUDIES 1.Start-up Company 2.Madrid Militant Group

17 Start-up Evolution

18 Madrid Group Evolution

19 Summary 1. L, B, D parameters describe Small Group evolution (pictures are not always worth 1000 words) 2. Evolution entails strategic play (game theoretic) Future 3. Is there an optimal evolutionary path ? (e.g. context, internal vs external forces on group, objectives ) => analysis of patterns of strategic reasoning

20 = Lukmanul Group = Kompak Group = Afghan Ties = Ngruki Ties + = Dead = Arrest = Misc Other = an-Nur Group = Ring Banten Group An-Nur Group Accommodations Group Ring Banten Group Kompak Group Core Bombing Group

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22 (Non-adjacent clusters of K n which increase diversity.) Definitions n = number of vertices; d i = degree of vertex v i Disjoint dipoles are separated by at least two edge steps

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