1. Day CREATING A WORLD THAT IS SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE FOR WILDLIFE AND SOCIETY Avian Influenza in Wild Birds Matching goals and methods

2. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca OVERVIEW OF THE CANADIAN INTERAGENCY WILD BIRD PROGRAM

3. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Canada is obligated to report diseases causing significant morbidity or mortality in domestic and wild animals. This includes HPAI and LPAI H5 and H7 viruses, which are considered reportable under the Health of Animals Act as well as the OIE Terrestrial Animal Code. Why have a program?

4. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Three general goals Find fast and contain to reduce trade impacts Prevent movement of virus between wildlife, poultry & people Provide assurance and create confidence

5. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca The current program goals Vigilance HPAI Early warning Re-enforce biosecurity Vigilance LPAI Pathogen ecology Source attribution Identify biosecurity needs Anticipate future risk areas, virus evolution& needs Pathogen ecology Pathology Source attribution Reporting obligations

6. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca DELIVERY & PRIORITY VARY ACROSS CANADA Timeliness & probability of detection not equivalent

7. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca YearDeadLive 20051654319 2006>6000>17000 2007>6000>17000 200830192261 200924074875 201018455885 201118644858 20121664951 201313921218 201415451324 201516743000 H5 -5 H5 – 31 H7 – 1 H7 - 7 Trends in effort 2015- to mid October

8. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca SHOULD POST-2015 GOALS & METHODS CHANGE?

9. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Priorities, resources, knowledge OBSERVATIONS DETERMINE Find signals that something has changed SIGNAL WARNING Is the signal right? Is it meaningful? FORECAST COMMUNICATE ACTION OUTCOME EVALUATE What can be done? JUDGE Outcome = identify changed environmental risk to poultry to inspire enhanced biosecurity actions

10. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Are we generating risk information? The virus is the global focus Less done tracking conditions or circumstances that increase exposure and/or susceptibility Little done on wild bird-farm interaction

11. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Likelihood of finding the hazard Budgets and convenience drive the system Sample Size Sample Source Wild bird population is in the many millions There are many sub- populations & prevalence will vary over time & place How many do we need to examine? What prevalence do we want to find? Live or Dead The most likely species or all possible? Near farms or distant? Crowded areas or anywhere? Young or old? Test Reliability Sample quality, normal test error, experience

12. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Priorities, resources, knowledge OBSERVATIONS DETERMINE Find signals that something has changed SIGNAL WARNING Is the signal right? Is it meaningful? FORECAST COMMUNICATE ACTION OUTCOME EVALUATE What can be done? JUDGE

13. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Requirements for early warning detect the risk signal earlier than by monitoring the population of concern timely communication to inspire action capacity to verify the signals to avoid unnecessary response capacity to assess the risk associated with warning signals adequate infrastructure & political will to undertake the design, implementation and sustainability of the system No systematic evaluation of any wild bird programs as early warning systems

14. Expanding the notion of “is the hazard there”? 1. Landscape conducive to exposure 2. Others are seeing signals 4. Virus is in my abiotic environment 3. Ducks (dead or alive) are near my barn 5. It’s a ‘bad’ strain of virus

15. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca What inspires action on risk signals?

16. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca What inspires action on risk signals? Outreach to farmers by industry, provincial agriculture and CFIA Potential place to modify actions

17. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Vulnerability assessment PossibilitySensitivityState VULNERABILITY How bad could it be Is the hazard there What does it do Is there scope to cope or adapt Is there enough exposure

18. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Disease does not affect all places uniformly Site specific vulnerability audits Behaviours Places Populations Barn’s interface with nature Ability to exclude hazards Animals (domestic & wild - affecting virus exposure) Human (workers, visitors etc) Susceptibility (genetics, stressors) Interactions affecting virus mixing

19. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Socio-ecological Environment Landscape risk Capacity to do something Exposures Wild bird proximity Barriers to virus traffic Signals Virus is being shed in environment Virus is present on farm Expanding the notion of surveillance to intelligence

20. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca The continuum from observation to action? Hazard Vulnerability Coping capacities AWARE Changed place, type or amount of virus Effective exposures Changed susceptibilities Right Time Right Scale Right People Reduce impact Prevent Eliminate Resilience ALERT COMMUNICATE ACT

21. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Resources – Test every farm, all dead wild birds, all the time? Validation – AI is normal in many species of wild birds Need to understand exposure likelihood – On-farm assessments Environmental sampling – in the R&D phase Implications – Find HPAI in the farm environment but not in barns or poultry – what would trading partners do? Limits current testing to distance away from farms CHALLENGES FOR CHANGE

22. Despite the limitations healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca Greatly expanded understanding of AI ecology and epidemiology – Waterfowl as a source and mechanisms of spread – Host- or strain-specific pathogenesis, timescales of infection, routes of virus shedding – Course of infection, extent of viral shedding, cloacal vs oropharyngeal shedding Informed biosecurity Lab networking

23. Key Message for this year healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca 2015-16 meets international obligations Will it meet other goals? – Early warning needs consistent efforts between events Methods, performance, interpretation, resources – Learned much in 10 years What are priorities and obligations now? AI is an example of the need for national networking

24. healthywildlife.cacwhc-rcsf.ca THANK YOU facebook.com/cwhcrcsf www.healthywildlife.ca @CWHCRCSF