1. 1. Apply Huntington’s classification to South Africa case (finish group discussion). 2. Learn additional examples of pacts. 3. Become familiar with typical characteristics of pacts. 4. Critically assess transitology literature. 5. Distinguish varying definitions of democratic consolidation.

2.  Review characteristics of transformation, replacement, transplacement.  Make best case possible for South Africa fitting into your assigned transition type.

3.  Venezuela (1958) › Pact of Punto Fijo  Colombia (1957)  Spain (1975)  Poland (1989)

4. 1. Pacts are typically temporary arrangements.  Measures to avoid certain undesired outcomes.

5. 2. Pacts limit the agenda of discussion among key parties. Limited actors, no “mass” representation.

6. 3. Pacts are an undemocratic means to democratic rule. › Small # of elite participants. › Limit accountability to wider constituents. › Attempt to control policy agenda.

7. 4. Pacts are not necessary for democratization to occur.

8.  Renunciation of violence.  Often commitment to make more pacts in future.  Procedures for regulating competition or distributing benefits.

9. 1. Institutional Pacts › Negotiate procedural rules for new regime. 2. Substantive Pacts › Guarantee substantive goods to certain groups.

10.  Guarantees to outgoing military leaders › No punishment for crimes committed while in power. › Military’s proper role must be respected.

11.  Guarantees to political parties › Distribution of representative positions in legislature. › Participation in policymaking. › Electoral rules. › Limited number of parties at table. › Guarantees to minorities.

12.  Socioeconomic questions › How various outside ally groups will behave during transition. › Can’t threaten basic class structure.

14.  Some pacted transitions have later reverted to authoritarianism. › E.g. Venezuela  In other cases, no pact but apparent successful democratization. › E.g. Czechoslovakia, Baltic states  Thus, any causal impact?

15.  What causes initial liberalization? Initial trigger for democratization can’t be predicted.  How do we really distinguish characters? Moderate softliner or thorough democratizer?  How to know where balance of power lies?  Is the model teleological – presupposes democratic outcome?

16. THE CONCEPT OF DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION

17. A political regime in which democracy … has become “the only game in town.” Consolidation (Linz & Stepan):

18. 3 Aspects of Consolidation (Linz & Stepan) 1. Behavioural 2. Attitudinal 3. Constitutional

19. “Two-turnover test”: two elections occur with peaceful changes of parties in power. Consolidation (Huntington):

20. Must use non-circular definition (separate from stability). Process of achieving broad regime legitimation among elites and masses. Consolidation (Diamond):

21. What consolidation is not about (Linz & Stepan) 1. Consolidation doesn’t mean regime won’t become unconsolidated at some point. 2. Quality of democracy different from consolidation and different kinds of democracy possible.