1. 1 Pakistan‘s National Accounts 1.Overview 2.Production, value added, GDP, GNP 3.Investment and consumption 4.Challenges/Difficulties 5.Plan For Implementation SNA1993/2008

2. 2 Framework of Pakistan’s NA  Regular Activities: GDP/GNP (factor costs) by industrial origin (by “sector”) Expenditure on GNP (market prices) GDP implicit deflator – a measure of inflation Estimates of GFCF (market prices) by industrial origin for private & public sector and for general government Composition of general government consumption expenditure  Other Activities: Input-Output Tables

3. 3 CROPS Value of output including by-products (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Provincial Agriculture & Irrigation Departments, IRSA, WAPDA, Federal Directorate of Fertilizer, Pesticides Association, etc. Sources: Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport Charges, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane, Gram, Maize, etc. Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds, Condiments, etc. Major crops: Minor crops:

4. 4 LIVESTOCK Value of output including by-products (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Livestock Division, Agriculture Census Organization, Pakistan Poultry Association etc. Sources: Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates (Grains, Oilcakes), Grass & Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Cattle and their products Poultry and their products Composition:

5. 5 FISHING Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Marine Fisheries Department, Provincial Fisheries Departments & Federal Bureau of Statistics. Sources: Salt, Ice, Fuel & Lubricants, Medicines, Chemicals, etc. and Auction Charges. Intermediate Consumption: Fish, Prawn, Shrimps, crabs, etc. from: Ocean, Coastal and Offshore water, Fish farms, Rivers, Canals, Lakes, Ponds, and inundated tracts, etc. Composition: Marine Inland

6. 6 FORESTRY Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Federal Inspectorate General of Forests. Provincial Forest Departments. Sources: Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Timber, Firewood, Ephedra, Grass & Grazing, Resin, Medicinal herbs, and other Minor Forest Products/Output. Composition:

7. 7 MINING & QUARRYING Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, OGDC, Occidental, Pirkoh, Mari Gas, Coal and other Mineral Establishments, Provincial Mineral Departments Sources: Blasting Material, Fuel and Lubricants, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Crude oil, Natural Gas, Coal including other minerals, e.g. Rock Salt, Lime Stone, Dolomite, Gypsum, Fire clay, Phosphate, Marble, and Surface Minerals. Composition:

8. 8 LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING For calculating growth rate of value added, Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) is computed based on production data of 100 items having 75.07% weight (bench-mark 1999-2000) of Large Scale Manufacturing Sector. Ministry of Industries, OCAC, Central Board of Revenue, Provincial Bureaux of Statistics, Federal Bureau of Statistics. Sources: Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Leather, Wood & Wood Products, Paper & Boards, Chemicals, Pharmaceutical, Petroleum, Metal, Engineering, Electrical, Automobile and other Industrial products/ groups. Composition:

9. 9 SMALL-SCALE MANUFACTURING 7.51 % based on Study on SSMI 1999-2000 Annual Growth: Based on special study and SHMI Surveys. Benchmark Estimates of Gross Value Added: All un-registered small and household manufacturing establishments Composition:

10. 10 CONSTRUCTION Value added coefficients of Investment by kind of construction are multiplied to Investment made in that activity during the year. Value additions of all activities are summed up. Federal, Provincial & Local Bodies, Development Authorities, Major Public & Private Construction Establishments, Federal Bureau of Statistics. Sources: All major construction activities including repairs, additions/alterations, Land Improvement; Buildings; Roads, Bridges, Streets; Highways; Runways; Transport & Railway Tracts; Telephone, Power, Gas, Oil, Utility lines; Canals; Dams; Harbour & Barrages etc. Composition:

11. 11 ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION & WATER SUPPLY Value of Electric, Gas & Water Supply (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus) Industrial cost & Electricity/Gas purchases. Gross Value Added: WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP, Pak Steel, IPPs and Captive Power units. Sui Southern and Sui Northern Gas Cos., Mari Gas etc. IRSA, Provincial Irrigation Departments. Sources: Electricity: Gas: Water: Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Electricity, Gas distribution and Water supply Composition:

12. 12 TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATION Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus) intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Pakistan Railways, PNSC, KPT, PQA, KICT, QICT, PICT,CAA, PIA & other Airlines. NTRC, Asia Petroleum, PARCO, etc. Boats. PTCL, NTC,Mobile Phones,ISPs,PCOs, Post Offices, Courier Services, NLC, Town Committees (for Non-mechanized) Sources: Railway, Air, Water, Road, Pipeline Transport, Storage & Communication Composition:

13. 13 FINANCE & INSURANCE Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus) intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks, Development Financial Institutions, Life and General Insurance Cos, Modarabas & Leasing Companies. Sources: State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks, DFIs, Insurance Companies, Modaraba & Leasing Companies. Composition:

14. 14 WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE Composition:All Agricultural, Industrial Produce and Imports Sources:Provincial Governments & Federal Bureau of Statistics Value Added:Total value of trade margins applied on the marketed portions of Agriculture and Industrial Output as well as Imports.

15. 15 OWNERSHIP OF DWELLINGS Coverage: Housing Units (rented as well as self occupied) and in urban and rural areas Sources:Housing Census & Rent Surveys Value Added:Gross Rentals (No. of Dwellings multiplied by average annual rent (minus) Value of current repairs and maintenance.

16. 16 PUBLIC ADMN. & DEFENCE Composition: Federal, Provincial and District Governments and Cantonment Boards. Sources:Budget documents of Federal, Provincial, District Governments and Cantonment Boards. Gross Value Added: Sum of the compensation of employees (all Civil and Defence) (Plus) Depreciation on Govt. fixed assets

17. 17 COMMUNITY, SOCIAL & PRIVATE SERVICES Composition: Education, Health, Business (Accounting, Auditing, Advertising, Photography etc.), Recreation, Social, Personal & Domestic Services, etc. Sources:Ministry of Education, PMDC, PNC, PBA, PEC, ACA, PAA, PHA, etc. Gross Value Added: Per Worker Value Added multiplied by Number of Workers

18. 18 Expenditure on GNP Private Final Consumption Expenditure Government Final Consumption Expenditure Gross Fixed Capital Formation Changes in Stocks Exports (minus imports) of Good and Services Net Factor Income from Rest of the World

19. 19 Private Final Consumption Expenditure  Final Consumption of goods and services of household and private non- profit institutions serving households  Measured through  Residually

20. 20 Government Final Consumption Expenditure  Current expenditures on goods and services by all the departments and establishments of:  Federal Government  Provincial Governments  District Governments  Cantonments

21. 21 Weaknesses in methods Value added of Banks not in line with SNA Value added includes holding gains and property incomes (≠ SNA) Construction: no survey Extrapolations with doubtful assumptions Constant prices: single deflation, only No PIM for calculations related to capital stock No independent calculation of private consumption Some terms are outdated, especially “GNP”

22. 22 Weaknesses in the data base Economic Census of partial use, only Small scale manufacturing: very old data Extrapolating of Large Scale Manufacturing via QIM: no sub-classification by industry Producer Price Index poor Few sub-annual figures (QIM and LFS, only) Business register is missing

23. 23 The two main revisions: overview Revision 1 Revison 2 2012 tentatively part 1 (in FY 2006-07 and following) part 2 (in FY 2008-09) Launch Quarterly National Accounts implement “basic prices” and other concepts of the SNA (e.g. FISIM) implement new surveys (especially in manufacturing) fully and uniformly apply PSIC 3 (ISIC Rev 3) and other classifications Exploit GFS for adapting PSIC and SNA, start implementing SUT / IO continue collecting data on GFCF; revisit concept and methods of production statistics introduce new price basis FY 2006 – 07 implement new surveys (especially construction) implement new methods of extrapolation (esp. QIM) implement independent calculation of private consumption reconcile figures NA with figures SUT apply new PSIC (ISIC Rev 4) and fully allocate “public sector” to “industries” implement first institutional sector accounts use IO for consistency and CF and deflators introduce and improve double deflation and apply quality adjustment implement PIM and resume capital stock calculation enhance scope and quality of expenditure side of GDP implement new surveys and introduce new price basis

24. 24 Valuation Principles Factor Cost Market Prices

25. 25 Price and other indicators used CPI, PPI, WPI, Unit Price Index of Imports/Exports

26. 26 Current Base Period 1999-2000 The work on change of base 1999-2000 to 2005- 06 is in progress.

27. 27 Rebasing/Linking Practice First base of National Accounts was 1959-60 Second:1980-81 Third:1999-2000 Fourth:2005-06 (work in progress) The series from 1980-81backward has been Backward Linked/Revised. No Backward Link from 1999-2000 has been made. The series from 2005-06 will be linked/revised backward and forward.

28. 28 Challenges and Difficulties Faced Difficulty in Collection of data for compilation of accounts. Some data are given by secondary sources, only. Government Finance Statistics is with MoF. No regular print productions. Shortage of resources (Manpower, Financial). Public confidence in the data is poor.

29. 29 Type of Technical Assistance Required Pakistan may be considered in the International Training Programmes on National Accounts.

30. 30 Plans for 93/2008 SNA Implementation 1993 SNA is currently followed GDP/GNP at current factor cost/ constant factor cost and market prices are compiled. It has been decided to implement the SNA 93 during the current change of base i.e., 2005-06 SNA 93 will be implemented in phases. Adequate data and technical know how are the two main challenges for the implementation of SNA 93. Pakistan may be considered in all international training programmes of National Accounts.