1. Lecture 20: Failed States February 23, 2009

2. Extra Credit Opportunity Dr. Melvyn Leffler, Edward Stettinius Professor of American History, University of Virginia Dr. Melvyn Leffler, Edward Stettinius Professor of American History, University of Virginia “CONTEMPORARY DILEMMAS and COLD WAR LESSONS” “Can we learn anything from our experiences in the Cold War? The answer is yes, and the lessons are reassuring as well as surprising.” February 27, 2009, 7:00 PM, Kane Hall, Rm 210

3. States Weber: legitimate monopoly of violence Weber: legitimate monopoly of violence + extract taxes provide public services provide public services 17 th century: princes, war, taxes, consolidation 17 th century: princes, war, taxes, consolidation 19 th /20 th century  nation-state 19 th /20 th century  nation-state Colonial boundaries retained after independence Colonial boundaries retained after independence Post-WWII: high demands made on states Post-WWII: high demands made on states

4. What’s a Failed State? loss of physical control of territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force loss of physical control of territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions an inability to provide reasonable public services an inability to provide reasonable public services “the collapse of state institutions, especially the police and judiciary, with resulting paralysis of governance, a breakdown of law and order, and general banditry and chaos. Not only are the functions of government suspended, but its assets are destroyed or looted and experienced officials are killed or flee the country.” “the collapse of state institutions, especially the police and judiciary, with resulting paralysis of governance, a breakdown of law and order, and general banditry and chaos. Not only are the functions of government suspended, but its assets are destroyed or looted and experienced officials are killed or flee the country.” --Boutros Boutros-Ghali

5. Indicators (FP Magazine) Social Indicators 1. Mounting Demographic Pressures 2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons Social Indicators 1. Mounting Demographic Pressures 2. Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies 3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies 3. Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia 4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight Economic Indicators 5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines 6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline Political Indicators 7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State 8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services 9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights 10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State" 11. Rise of Factionalized Elites 12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors Paranoia 4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight Economic Indicators 5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines 6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline Political Indicators 7. Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State 8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services 9. Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights 10. Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State" 11. Rise of Factionalized Elites 12. Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350

6. Who’s a Failed State?

7. 2008 “Winners” 1) Somalia 1) Somalia 2) Sudan 2) Sudan 3) Zimbabwe 3) Zimbabwe 4) Chad 4) Chad 5) Iraq 5) Iraq 6) Democratic Republic of the Congo 6) Democratic Republic of the Congo 7) Afghanistan 7) Afghanistan 8) Ivory Coast 8) Ivory Coast 9) Pakistan 9) Pakistan 10) Central African Republic 10) Central African Republic

8. Why Should We Care About Failed States? Failed states  civil war; internal conflict  state failure Failed states  civil war; internal conflict  state failure

9. Wars Over Time

10. Why Should We Care About Failed States? Failed states  civil war; civil war  state failure Failed states  civil war; civil war  state failure Refugees Refugees Breakdown of public health, infrastructure  famine, epidemics Breakdown of public health, infrastructure  famine, epidemics Illicit trade Illicit trade Terrorism Terrorism

11. Why States Fail I: Identity-based Conflict 19 th and 20 th century conflicts involved nation- states 19 th and 20 th century conflicts involved nation- states “Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21 st century “Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21 st century Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993) Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993) Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” 8 civilizations 8 civilizations

12. Huntington’s World

13. Why States Fail I: Identity-based Conflict 19 th and 20 th century conflicts involved nation- states 19 th and 20 th century conflicts involved nation- states “Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21 st century? “Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21 st century? Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993) Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993) Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” 8 civilizations 8 civilizations Faultlines Faultlines

14. Faultlines?

15. Why States Fail I: Identity-based Conflict 19 th and 20 th century conflicts involved nation-states 19 th and 20 th century conflicts involved nation-states “Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21 st century? “Re-emergence” of ancient identities in 21 st century? Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993) Samuel Huntington, “Clash of Civilizations” (1993) Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” Civilization: “highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species.” 8 civilizations 8 civilizations Faultlines Faultlines Influential in (some) policy circles Influential in (some) policy circles Criticism: Selective evidence; simplistic; self-fulfilling? Criticism: Selective evidence; simplistic; self-fulfilling?

16. Why States Fail II: Colonial Legacies Artificial borders Artificial borders Low levels of development Low levels of development Independence without state institutions Independence without state institutions Failed attempts to build national identity Failed attempts to build national identity Incompetent governance Incompetent governance Corruption Corruption Patronage Patronage Autocracy Autocracy Extreme poverty and debt Extreme poverty and debt

18. Why Do States Fail? Artificial borders Artificial borders Low levels of development Low levels of development Premature independence Premature independence Failed attempts to build national identity Failed attempts to build national identity Incompetent governance Incompetent governance Corruption Corruption Patronage Patronage Autocracy Autocracy Extreme poverty and debt Extreme poverty and debt End of Cold War support End of Cold War support Greed and grievance Greed and grievance

19. Democratic Republic of Congo, Formerly Known as Zaire

20. DRC’s Collapse Cold War support (Mobutu installed 1965) Cold War support (Mobutu installed 1965) Corrupt, repressive government Corrupt, repressive government End of Cold War support End of Cold War support Rebellion, plunder Rebellion, plunder Opportunistic intervention Opportunistic intervention

21. How to Fix Failed States? Externally driven state-building  Externally driven state-building  long-term commitment, intelligent planning, deep understanding of society and culture, international cooperation, lots of money, acceptance of casualties Need a state-building corps? Need a state-building corps? Governance reform Governance reform Foreign aid Foreign aid Containment Containment Why it’s difficult: collective action problem—everyone waits for everyone else to act Why it’s difficult: collective action problem—everyone waits for everyone else to act