1. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office Polar Prediction Project (PPP) Update In 2001, the World Meteorological Congress decided to embark on a decadal endeavour – the development of a Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS). Two closely related initiatives: WWRP PPP to “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental p rediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal.” WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) which “contributes to the development of GIPPS on time scales of a season or beyond”. Details, plans available from http://polarprediction.nethttp://polarprediction.net

2. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office PPP Overview Steering Group launched PPP in early 2012 Implementation plan adopted in January 2013Implementation plan Science plan produced providing scientific basis for activities.Science plan Major activity: Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP: 2017-2019)YOPP International Coordination Office at Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven.

3. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office PPP: Key Goals Improve understanding of the benefits of using existing prediction information and services in polar regions…. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions… Optimize the polar observing system to provide good coverage of high-quality observations of all components of the polar climate system in a cost effective manner. Develop uncoupled and coupled model systems with a realistic representation of key physical, dynamical, chemical and hydrological processes in the polar regions. Develop improved DA systems that account for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data, steep orography, model error… Develop ensemble prediction systems with a realistic representation of model and initial condition uncertainty in the polar regions. Improve understanding of the origins and limits of predictability in the polar regions…

4. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office PPP Research Plan Areas Potential MWFR activities in each FSR area…

5. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office PPP FSR Selected Activities Observations: New obs, adjoint sensitivies, OSSEs. Modelling: Explore polar processes (e.g. stable PBL, aerosol, cloud m icrophysics, river flows, lakes, sea-ice, permafrost), grey zone, stochastic parametrization, etc). DA: Evaluate analysis/reanalysis datasets, develop sea-ice retrievals, flow-dependent error covariances, coupled O-A-I-L Ensemble forecasting: Assess global/regional(?) polar EPS, improve uncertainty in IC/model, explore SP vs multi-model EPS, …

6. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office YOPP

7. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office YOPP

8. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office YOPP: Next stages PPP Steering Group Meeting: 21-23 rd August

9. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office PPP Comments Significant, well-coordinated effort with ambitious (achievable?) plans. Focus to date is clearly on global coupled NWP models, rather than high-resolution NWP. Limited MWFR member activity – should (can?) MWFR be more active promoting mesoscale PPP? YOPP: MWFR not involved as yet, Should we get involved next week at WWOSC PPP meeting?

10. © Crown Copyright 2014. Source: Met Office Blobitecture (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blobitecture) Wikipedia: Future Systems' blobitecture desig nfor the 2003 Selfridges Building department store, was intended to evoke the female sillouette and a famous "chainmail" dress designed by Paco Rabanne in the 1960s. Its landmark qualities were expected to rejuvenate the Birmingham city centre. “Buckminster Fuller's work with geodesic domes provided both stylistic and structural precedents.”