1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 001 Guy Burgess

2. Careers

3. http://iocareers.state.gov/Main/Home

4. Pushing the Bureaucracy http://usaidlearninglab.org/events/nov-21-new-effort-embed-systems-thinking-usaid

5. Middle East Primer http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/31/opinion/cohen-a-middle- eastern-primer.html?emc=eta1

6. Rich and Poor http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/if-the-world-is-getting-richer-why-do-so- many-people-feel-poor/283334/

7. The Diminishing Middle-Class Market http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/02/03/business/the-middle-class-is-steadily-eroding-just-ask- the-business-world.html?hp&_r=0&referrer=

8. Psychological Impacts of Inequality http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/02/how-inequality-hollows-out-the-soul/?hp&rref=opinion

9. Secular Stagnation http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/secular-stagnation-coalmines-bubbles-and-larry- summers/

10. Reading Reflections / D2L Grades  Level of Effort  Number of Points  Evidence of Having Done the Readings  Personal Reflections  Timeliness

11. Project Ideas?

12. Complex Systems Organic Systems and Metaphors

13. Situational Awareness

16. Systems Thinking

17. Alpha Male Effect “Power Over” Relatively Simple

18. “Meek Shall Inherit the Earth” Effect http://www.thevalueweb.org/systems/systems-thinking-in-action/ “Power With” Extremely Difficult

19. The E-Bay vs. Unity of Effort

20. Learning Accelerator

21. Readings Reflections

22. The Opportunity Coalition http://www.nytimes. com/2014/01/31/opi nion/brooks-the- opportunity- coalition.html?partn er=rssnyt&emc=rss &_r=0

23. NOT the Post-It Note Excersise

24. Inequality Problems at the Top – Assortative Mating – The Super Star Effect – Money Addiction/Boundless Greed – Others? Problems the Bottom – Single Parenting – Crimes/Incarceration Rates – Unemployment History – Low Educational Expectations – Scarcity-Afflicted Thinking – Others? Systemic Problems – Automation – Kludgeocracy – Reserve Army of the Unemployed – Zero-Some Mentality – Matthew’s Law – Stress Limits on Compassion – Under-Performing Schools – Lance Armstrong Effect – Others

25. Micro, Meso, Macro Peacebuilding Fractals

26. Coleman Paradigms

27. This Week’s Readings

28. Ricigliano SAT Model  Structures  Attitudes  Transactions

29. Opportunity Coalition: Systems Thinking Training  Shortcomings of “conventional thinking”  Overview of “systems thinking”  Key/useful ideas  Exercises  Advantages of “systems thinking”  Disadvantages of “systems thinking” / frontiers of the field

30. Extra Slides

31. Complicated vs. Complex Systems I Complicated Engineering View System Consciously Designed by Humans Complete Plans of the System Are Available Unified Command-and- control Structure Deterministic Complex Medical View System Evolved Through Processes of Natural and Social Selection No Plans Exist—Only Observational Studies and Theories Decentralized, Multiple Independent Actors Adaptive / Chaotic

32. Complicated vs. Complex Systems II Complicated Workings of all system components are understood Complete repair possible Applies to simpler, designed systems Space shuttle Computers Complex Workings of only some system components understood Only incremental fixes/improvements Applies to complex, real-world systems Medicine, Ecosystem management, Internet, Economy, Social conflict

33. Complicated vs. Complex Systems III Complicated All malfunctions can be troubleshooted and repaired (given sufficient funds and political will) Complex Some problems (pathologies/diseases) can be diagnosed and treated, others cannot— treatment varies from: Complete Cure Symptomatic Relief No Successful Treatment -- Chronic Condition -- “Live with It” No Successful Treatment -- “Terminal” Focus on the most threatening pathologies