1. Transport Model for Scotland SHS-based inputs and forecast trends SHS User Day David Connolly and Lucy Barker| November 2007

2. Overview of Presentation Overview of the use of SHS in the Transport Model for Scotland General Trends in Travel Behaviour (SHS + TMfS) Impact of Age and the Ageing Population on Travel Behaviour

3. Overview of Transport Model for Scotland

4. Transport Model for Scotland Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is: A multi-modal transport and land-use model Car, goods vehicles, bus & rail Week-day travel (AM peak, Inter-peak and PM peak) covers all of mainland Scotland 2005 Base Year plus ability to forecast 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022, … Web-site: www.tmfs.org.uk

5. SHS Data in Transport Model for Scotland The calibration of TMfS has used the following SHS data Travel Diary - trip rates by car ownership - trip length distributions by journey purpose - mode choice proportions by car ownership - trip rates by mode, age and gender - Time of day profiles (for annualisation) etc Household Data Household car ownership by urban/rural classification Splitting Census data by SHS household types and worker-type (manual/semi-skilled/skilled) (We have also used 2001 Census Travel to Work Data and GROS National Demographic Projections)

6. General Demographics

7. Scottish Demographics - Population and Households (Source: TELMoS) + 1.1 % + 8.5 %

8. Scottish Demographics – Ageing population (Source: TELMoS) - 13 % + 24 %

9. Impacts of Age on Transport Behaviour

10. Person Trips per Day by Mode (Source: SHS)

11. Car Driving Trip Rates by Age and Journey Purpose (Source: SHS)

12. Car Driving Trip Rates by Age and Gender (Source: SHS)

13. Car Driving Distance by Age & Gender (Source: SHS)

14. Car Driving Distance per Trip (Source: SHS)

15. Bus Kms per Person (Source: SHS Data)

16. Impacts of Household Structure on Travel Behaviour

17. Household Car Ownership by Household Demographics (Source: SHS)

18. Car Trip Rates by Household Type (Source: SHS)

19. Car Kms by Household Type (Source: SHS)

20. Transport Behaviour – Trends and Forecasts

21. Car ownership by population in a household (Source: TELMoS)

22. Car driver/vehicle trips per day

23. Car/Vehicle Kms per Person

24. Time lost due to congestion (Source: TMfS)

25. Emissions of pollutants from traffic (Source: TMfS)

26. CO 2 emissions from traffic (Source: TMfS)

27. Conclusions The ageing population will have significant impacts on travel behaviour - Car use decreases sharply with age - Likely decrease in travel to education - SHS might also be used to detect impacts of the National Concessionary Travel Scheme TMfS suggests growth in car ownership will outweigh the decrease in car use due to the ageing population As a result, congestion will continue to grow steadily over time Pollutants from traffic will decrease (due to fuel/engine improvements) However, TMfS predicts CO 2 emissions will grow

28. ? ? ? ? ? ? Questions & Discussion