1. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Post-Earthquake Building Tagging Nicolas Luco Research Structural Engineer USGS – Golden, CO Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting

2. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Post-Earthquake Building Tagging “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting ? ? ?

3. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Post-Earthquake Building Tagging “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting Guidelines for using strong-motion Data and ShakeMaps in Postearthquake response

4. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Pre-Earthquake Building Design “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting FIGURE 1613.3.1 RISK-TARGETED MAXIMUM CONSIDERED EARTHQUAKE (MCE R ) GROUND MOTION …

5. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Combination of ground motion hazard forecast & building fragility assessment (e.g. McGuire 2004) As an extension to its pre-earthquake use, the risk integral can be used post-earthquake as well. “Risk Integral” “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting Collapse Risk (in time T) Building Collapse Fragility Ground Motion Hazard Forecast

6. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Post-Earthquake Ground Motion Hazard “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting

7. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models In addition to expert-opinion & empirical fragility curves, USGS engineers have co-developed analytical curves. In particular, analytical curves have been developed for damaged (e.g., by a mainshock) buildings, e.g., … Post-Earthquake Building Fragility “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting Reference: Raghunandan, Liel, & Luco in Earthquake Spectra, 2014

8. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Post-Earthquake Building Tagging “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting

9. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Time-varying post-earthquake risk can be compared with constant pre-earthquake risk via an Equivalent Constant Rate (Yeo & Cornell; 2008). Post- vs. Pre-Earthquake Risk “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting

10. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Post-Earthquake Inspection Prioritization “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting

11. EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models Summary Currently, post-earthquake building tagging is relatively qualitative and does not utilize OEF info. Meanwhile, pre-earthquake building design uses “long-term OEF” (i.e., PSHA) to quantitatively target a tolerated collapse risk. Published procedures for using “short-term OEF” in risk-based building tagging already exist. “Post-Earthquake Building Tagging,” N. Luco, USGS March 16, 2015 Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) Meeting