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Charlie Penicook and Zuowei Xu November 19, 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Charlie Penicook and Zuowei Xu November 19, 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Charlie Penicook and Zuowei Xu November 19, 2013

2 Agenda  Introduction  Macroeconomic Outlook  Industry Overview  Company Overview  Financial Analysis  Valuation  Recommendation

3 The Jack Henry Associates  Founded by Jack Henry and Jerry Hall in 1976  A provider of information systems and services for more than 11,900 financial institutions and corporate entities  Listed in the NASDAQ on October 29, 1985  Industry: Business Software & Services Source: Jack Henry Company Website

4 Current Holding Information  November 11, 1999: Purchased 200 shares at $36.00/share ($7,200 total investment)  2:1 Split twice in 2000 and 2001, which took the holding to 800 shares at $9 per share  January 15, 2007: Sold 400 shares at $22.53 for a realized gain of $5,412  November 18, 2013 Price: $56.71  Unrealized Gain: 530.11% ($19,084)  Total Position Value: $22, 684 (5.08% of total portfolio) Source: Yahoo Finance

5 Macroeconomic Outlook  The Federal Reserve Bank can control the financial institutions by controlling the supply of money, raising/lowering the reserve requirement and through open market operations.  The incoming Chair, Janet Yellen, announced that the Fed would continue the current Quantitative Easing policy. Federal Reserve Bank Banking Industry& Credit Union Business Software& Service

6 Macroeconomic Outlook Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting

7 Business Software & Service Source: Hfs Research, 2013 market sizing data The IT and business services outsourcing market is at 170 billion in 2012. And the banking process outsourcing services made up about 85 billion.

8 Business Software & Service ServiceOnline MobilityImpact

9 Industry Forces Analysis Rivalry: High Buyers: Low Substitutes: Medium Suppliers: Low New Entrants: Low

10 Industry Forces Analysis  Bargaining Power of Suppliers: LOW  The company’ s technology and service is its advantage, and the market for suppliers of hardware is competitive.  Bargaining Power of Buyers: LOW  Clients are reluctant to change for high switching cost  Threat of New Entrants: LOW  Dodd- Frank makes it more difficult for new entrants  Economies of scale

11 Industry Forces Analysis  Threat of Substitutes: LOW  Brand advantage, high switching cost  Rivalry among Competitors: HIGH  Mature market and consolidation

12 Company Overview  A Provider of core information processing solutions for more than 11,300 financial institutions and corporate entities  Supports 1300 community banks around the country, about 1/5 of the banks in United States  Supports 760 credit unions, about 1/10 of the credit unions in United States. Source: Jack Henry Company Website

13 Company Overview Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting Small BanksCredit Unions Specialized Products and service for other financial institutions

14 Company Overview Wide Moat  High switching cost for core processing service  Focus on small banks and credit unions  Long-term contract with clients to ensure the future revenue growth  Debt-free, ready to make acquisitions Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting

15 Company Overview

16 Business Risk Analysis Economic conditions Cyclical fluctuations in banking New Technology Government Regulations Security Problems Source:10-K, JKHY Co., FY 2013

17 SWOT Analysis StrengthsWeaknesses -Recurring revenue -Strong free cash flow for repurchase and acquisitions. -Relatively small size compared to rivals OpportunitiesThreats -More banks tend to outsource their data and processing system -Growth through acquisition -Banking Failure increases -Hard to find proven acquisition target -Negative Macroeconomic outlook

18 Strategy  Concentrate on information systems and services for small banks and credit unions  Develop the latest processing platform and advancing technologies  Maintain the high levels of customer satisfaction  Strategy change:  A mobile strategy for online payments

19 Management Outlook  Positive  2012 Performance Reaches All-Time High  Strong sales performances by all brands  Continued strong profit margins  Exceptionally high associate satisfaction ratings  Exceptionally high customer satisfaction ratings  Concerns  The improved economic situation made bank move the processing system in-house Source: JKHY Consolidated Shareholder Meeting

20 Recent News  JKHY Reports 2014 Q1 Earnings: November 5, 2013  9% increase in revenue, 11% increase in gross profits, 17% increase in net income over the first quarter of fiscal 2013  American Airlines Federal Credit Union completes successful conversion to Symitar Core system: November 13  $5.6 billion in assets and operates as the 13rd largest credit union in the United States  Jack Henry& Associates announces iPad Compatible Banking: November 14  The app supports traditional in-branch and online transactions Source: Yahoo Finance

21 Recent Financial Information Source: JKHY Shareholder Meeting

22 Recent Financial Information Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting

23 Recent Financial Information The company keeps rising dividend rate for Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting

24 Recent Financial Information The company would pay $0.80 dividend per share at current dividend rate. Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting

25 Recent Financial Information Source: JKHY 2013 Shareholder Meeting The company would continue to repurchase their shares because the they believe the stock value is undervalued

26 Current Stock Information Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance MetricValue Current Stock Price $56.82 Trailing P/E 26.68 Forward P/E 21.69 Dividend Yield 1.40% Market Cap ($ millions) $4.86 B

27 Financial Analysis NOTE: The years above refer to the fiscal years ending on June 30

28 Financial Analysis NOTE: The years above refer to the fiscal years ending on June 30

29 Financial Analysis NOTE: The years above refer to the fiscal years ending on June 30

30 Stock Performance Source: Yahoo Finance  Roughly in line with peers  High industry growth

31 Comparable Company Analysis Source:

32 Discount Rate Source: Yahoo Finance  Regression  6-year (pre-Dodd Frank) beta of.89  High ROE  Low debt weight  Paid-down debt  No business risk premium  For demonstrational purposes

33 DCF Analysis  Discount:  10.65%  Terminal Growth:  3.5%  Current Price:  $56.71

34 Decision Drivers  Strengths:  Stable revenue growth  Long-term contracts  Increasing Dividend  Paid down debt  New Product offerings  Concerns:  Overvalued: Over 100% price growth LTM  Net Income growth of 13%

35 Recommendation  Valuation Summary:  DCF: $ 36.01  Comps: $41.48  Recommendation:  Sell 200 shares @ market price of $56.71 to realize gain of $9,542  Hold Remaining 200 shares.

36 Questions?


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