1. CAP CHALLENGES IN CUBA Presented 23 September, 2015 by Jose Rubiera, Ph. D. at the CAP Implementation Workshop (Rome, Italy)

2. Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings

3. Just an hour or less!!!! Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings

4. CAP is the only way to alert people in very fast developing dangerous weather. An example was the squall line that effected Havana (2 million inhabitants) on April 29, 2015. Winds were up to 27 m/s in a few minutes Atmospheric Pressure dropped to 998 hPa at the same time Satellite Radar Severe local storm developed rapidly just in front of Havana. Only a 20-min lead time to warn…. of course, the warning couldn´t go through….. Nobody received it before the event.

5. The main hazard in this event was the heavy and intense rainfall that disrupted all normal affairs in the 2-million inhabitants city, but fortunately with just one fatality Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings Heaviest precipitation fell in about 20 minutes. Greatest amounts were recorded in downtown Havana: 239 mm in Plaza de la Revolución; 197 mm in Cerro; 188 mm in Loma de la Cruz; 186 mm in La Palma; and 171 mm in Habana del Este

6. City normal life completely disrupted in 15 minutes Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings

7. City normal life completely disrupted in 15 minutes

8. The night fell over a flooded city that was without electric power Havana completely under water The most intense rainfall lasted less than half an hour Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings

9. This intense rain event came over a very vulnerable city without warning. Warning was issued, but was not received on time, almost by nobody, because of the fast evolution of the event and the slow procedures of writing a warning note, but mainly because of the very slow and complicated mechanisms for distributing the warning message. CAP WOULD HAVE BEEN A FAST, RELIABLE, MEANS FOR THE WARNING TO GO THROUGH IN A SHORT TIME Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings

10. Telecomms in Cuba: Current Limitations for CAP Internet not widely used in the Country; Only available for a small amount of people, roughly 3 million users, 25 % of 11 million inhabitants in 2014. Very Slow Internet connection, normally no wide band. Very high cost for one-hour surfing, around 8 - 9 % of an average monthly salary after a 50 % price off being in effect since July 2015. Cell phone are available for many people, but still below 40 % of the population. No Internet Connection in cell phones.

11. Current trend calls for a steady increase in Internet Access in the next few years. Tha cost in Internet Access have a downward trend; although the cost diminished by half in July 2015, it still is very high for average people. New public places with Internet have been opened 2015, as well as 35 public areas with wi-fi full internet access in July 2015, always with many users connected at any time of day, notwithstanding the high cost of the service. An increase in Internet connections, including cell phones (3G) is likely to occur in the next years Telecomms in Cuba: New Perspectives and Oportunities for CAP

12. E-mail is widely used by people in national and international services. A national and International E-Mail service has been opened by ETECSA (National Telecomm Company), which includes cell phone E-Mail accounts since 2014. Costs of cell phone calls and SMS messaging have been steadily dropping during the last two years; there are also frequent offers, with cheaper service. This trend continues. There are no cell phones Internet connection yet; only the new 35 wi-fi public áreas created in July 2015. An increase in Internet connections, including cell phones (3G) is likely to occur in the next years Telecomms in Cuba: New Perspectives and Oportunities for CAP

13. Stategy Developed by Cuba’s NMS to Implement CAP in a Short Timeframe To insert CAP into the WEB institutional site. (Already Operational). To set a mechanism to automatically send CAP messages through E-Mail registered users (Almost Operational….. User’s lists are being made). To make agreements with the cell phone service provider to automatically send SMS CAP message to cell phone users in a certain áreas – (Conversation are being made. There are posibilities that this option could be operational before the end of 2015). To set Finnish SmartAlert web page operational next year (the efficiency of this system is very limited due to the rather low amount of Internet users, but this will likely change in the near future).

14. CAP into the WEB -- not fast nor available to many people today, but it will likely be so within a few years. CAP messages automatically sent through E-Mail -- CAP messages could get to more people than today, mainly through cell phones with E-Mail capabilities (Nauta Service). SMS CAP messages sent automatically – The most promising way in sight until Internet service is available for all. To insert Cuba’s CAP warnings into the WMO CAP Alert Hub to allow its publication in an international service. Stategy Developed by Cuba’s NMS to Implement CAP in a Short Timeframe

15. CONCLUSIONS CAP is a real need for Cuba’s NMS, mainly in rapidly developing hazardous weather systems. The Cuban NMS, through its National Forecast Center, is taking all possible steps for the success of the implementation of CAP in Cuba, notwithstanding the technical constrains due to the rather poor development and expansion of the country’s Telecomm systems. The Cuban NMS is working CAP with sound steps to be fully prepared towards the improvement in Internet and cell phone services that should likely occur in the next few years.

16. Thank you Muchas Gracias Grazie Mille