1. © 2008 UNDP. All Rights Reserved Worldwide. Proprietary and Confidential. Not For Distribution Without Prior Written Permission. Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Human Development in Eastern Europe and CIS Marina Olshanskaya, BRC RBEC HDR Community of Practice Meeting 20 May, Bratislava, Slovakia

2. 1 1 Climate Change Mitigation: Why we should mitigate 1. Manage climate risk To keep temperature below 2°C increase Reduce the risk of dangerous climatic changes 2. Energy security Ease international relations, overshadowed by securing fossil fuel reserves 3. Foreign currency savings Reduce dependency on imports of fossil fuels Spend national budgets on development 4. Catalyse financing for sustainable development The various sources of funding for GHG reduction present a unique opportunity for sustainable development in RBEC

3. 2 2 GHG emissions past trends: RBEC and other regions RBEC accounts for 12 % of global GHG emissions and 7% of world population GHG emissions dropped by 30% in the 1990s, but back on the rise since 2000 Source: CAIT World Resources Institute 2008

4. 3 3 Carbon intensity: RBEC & other regions (2004) World average Source: CAIT World Resources Institute 2008

5. 4 4 2007 2050 World average today South 4.2 tCO 2 e/cap North 16.1 tCO 2 e/cap CO 2 /Cap/year HDR objective for 2050 North: 80%▼in emissions South: 20%▼in emissions RBEC X tCO 2 e/cap 2050 target: 50%▼ global emissions

6. 5 5 Greenhouse gas emissions in RBEC Source: CAIT WRI Land-Use Change & Forestry WORLD Energy Electricity & heat Manufacturing and construction Transportation Other fuel combustion Fugitive emissions Agriculture Waste Industrial processes RBEC In RBEC energy sector accounts for 83% of all GHG emissions vis-à-vis 62% in global GHG inventory

7. 6 6 In which sectors should we reduce GHG emissions? Energy sector GHG emissions are driven by economic growth Challenge: Reduce emissions without jeopardising growth Mitigation costs will differ depending on which of the methods below are used, and in which sector: 1. Increasing efficiency, which can save both money and emissions (e.g., industry, buildings, appliances) 2. Switching to lower-carbon technologies for power, heat and transport (i.e., Renewable Energy Technologies) 3. Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services (i.e., behavior change)

8. 7 7 Pro-poor - energy efficiency in buildings Sources Inforse, Wuppertal Institute: Building Energy Efficiency in Belarus and EU 25 (kWh/m 2 /yr)

9. 8 8 Pro-poor – decentralized renewable energy systems Image: Aga Khan Foundation 95% of Tajikistan’s power generation come from large hydro power with strong seasonal variations being the lowest during winter 0.5 – 1 mln Tajiks rely on wood fuel for their heating and cooking needs in winter Only in one region Gorno- Badakhshan 70% of forests were cut down for firewood in the past 10 years

10. 9 9 Number of passengers cars in Romania 1990-1998 (thousand cars) Use of public transport in Romania 1990-2000 (million passenger-km) Source: UNDP/GEF PDF B concept Pro-poor policies - Transport sector

11. 10 Why is mitigation not happening? What is the problem? Policies Finance/costs (1-3% global GDP/a) Skills and capacities Awareness and information Technology

12. 11 GHG emission abatement options & marginal costs, €/tCO 2 Insulation in buildings Energy-efficient lighting EE water heating Abatement potential (Gt CO 2 /year in 2030) Fuel-efficient vehicles Wind electricity Forestation Solar Switch from coal to gas For power generation 0 5 10 15 20 25 27 0 €/tCO 2 -50 50 -150 -100

13. 12  Remove barriers to direct investment in climate-friendly technologies (UNDP/GEF)  Example: UNDP/GEF project “Removing barriers to wind power investment in Kazakhstan”  Mobilize additional finance from emerging carbon markets to increase profitability of climate-friendly technologies (MDG Carbon Facility)  Example: CDM project “Construction of biogas power plant in Macedonia”  UNDP is uniquely positioned to combine and sequence multiple funding sources to support climate change mitigation UNDP’s approach to mitigation

14. 13 Combining & sequencing GEF and carbon financing Financial Return Risk of Investment Infeasible low-carbon project Carbon revenue Attractive low-carbon project GEF financing

15. 14 GHG mitigation efforts can catalyse development by: Climate change mitigation is also a development opportunity Leveraging additional resources from multiple financing sources (e.g., GEF, carbon markets, etc.) Providing energy security and reducing the energy bill for developing countries Facilitating access to modern energy sources for the poor de-centralised renewable energy sources energy-efficient measures

16. 15 Thank you for your kind attention More information: UNDP/GEF Climate Change: http://www.undp.org/gef/05/portfolio/cc.html MDG Carbon Facility : http://www.undp.org/mdgcarbonfacility marina.olshanskaya@undp.org