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Analysing Behavioural Responses to Policy Change in Dynamic Decision Environments
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www.melbourneinstitute.com Outline Alternative Approaches to Policy Analysis SIDD: A Life-cycle Model of the Household –Outline of the model –Solution methods –Using the model On-Going Work Directions for the Future
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www.melbourneinstitute.com Analyses of Policy A continuum of behavioural assumptions very broad behavioural assumptions Back-of-an- envelope analysis detailed statistical analysis no formal model of behaviour detailed statistical analysis formal model of behaviour – uncertainty omitted or poor accounted for detailed numerical analysis formal model of behaviour – uncertainty explicitly accounted for
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: a Household Life-cycle Model Simulator of Individual Dynamic Decisions The unit of analysis is the household Households fully described by the following characteristics (state variables): ageeducation status number of adultsnumber and age of children safe liquid assetswage rates pension arrangementstime of death
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Outline Households make decisions regarding the following (control) variables: Uncertainty influences the following: consumptionlabour supply pension scheme participationpension contribution rates education participation number of adultsnumber and age of children wage ratespension arrangements time of death
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Outline Objective function: where: –intertemporal budget constraint (the entire lifetime) –potential labour income (the working lifetime)
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Solving the Decision Problem hThT wTwT h T-1 w T-1 h T-2 w T-2 h1h1 w1w1
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Solving the Decision Problem Final period, T: –Death at the end of the period is certain, and the household is assumed to be retired Hence the household consumes all remaining wealth plus any pension income, c T = w T + y T –The values of final period consumption, utility, and marginal utility, are calculated and stored. yTyT wTwT yTyT wTwT yTyT wTwT cTcT VTVT du/dc T
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Solving the Decision Problem In period T-1: –Two alternative approaches to solution: 1.for any internal solution, the Euler condition must be satisfied: 2.at the solution, expected lifetime utility must be maximised:
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Solving the Decision Problem Since we know how alternative values of c will affect the state variables in the next period, we can also obtain E t [du/dc t+1 ] from the previously calculated grid at age T. h T-1 w T-1 hThT wTwT du/dc T w T-1,h T-1 c T-1 This is a deterministic solution
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Solving the Decision Problem hThT wTwT h T-1 w T-1 h T-2 w T-2 h1h1 w1w1 time
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www.melbourneinstitute.com Advantages and Disadvantages Advantages –Behavioural responses are based on a structural model and therefore free of the Lucas Critique –Fully takes into account endogeneity between alternative decisions (eg fertility and labour) –Explicitly takes into account influence of uncertainty Disadvantages –Numerically demanding (made less of problem with advances in computing) –Behavioural responses depend upon the validity of assumed model (advantages of bounded rationality)
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www.melbourneinstitute.com SIDD: Using the Model The model has been designed so that its parameters can be easily adjusted. These parameters include: –time preference for consumption allowance for myopia –bequest motives –preferences for leisure –attitudes to risk –the tax structure –the pensions structure –the incidence of childcare costs
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www.melbourneinstitute.com On-going Analyses Quasi-hyperbolic discounting and retirement behaviour Training and later-life learning in the UK The impact of Government plans for pension reform in the UK Analysis of the influence of decision costs on responses to tax incentives to save Extending the model to project population cross-sections forward through time
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www.melbourneinstitute.com Directions for the Future Specific topics of short-term interest: –Introduce the model to Treasury in Australia –Training and education in Australia –Fertility and female labour supply decisions in Australia Medium term objectives: –Build in additional behavioural rigidities –Start building in macro-linkages Others?
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