1. MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 11 MONITORING & FORECASTING CENTRE for the BLACK SEA MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – Cork /16-17 April 2013

2. Work Package Main Objectives MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Main objective were: -sustainable routine operation of the V 2 BS forecasting system on the initial stage of MyO2 and improvement of the product quality corresponding to user requirements and world best practice; -further development of product line and extension of services; -implementation of new models and data assimilation schemes (with WP18 and19) to improve the product quality in the BS region; -implementation of new tools for the assessment of product quality, routine assessment of the product quality and quarterly reports of the product accuracy. Relevant metrics will be proposed and implemented under WP17 supervision; --implementation of V 3 with assimilation of the profiling floats of EuroArgo and BulArgo projects, and sophisticated space altimetry assimilation algorithm.

3. Partnership MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 WP 11 Black Sea MFC (coordination) R&D Implementatio n & Transition Operation Service MHI NASU P07 MHI NASU P47 HZG P57 IMS METU P58 UOP P07 MHI NASU HZG- expertise of the Black Sea NEMO model skill in the permanent pycnocline and cold intermediate layer, sea level simulations, interface with WP19 IMS METU – testing and calibration of the Black and Azov seas model, Bosphorus strait region expertise, coupling of the Black and Med seas UoP – expertise of the NEMO application in the shallow Azov Sea and the Black Sea shelf area

4. System Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n Objectives were Improvement of operational subsystem Improvement, supporting and optimization of interfaces Operational models improvement and optimization Implementation and supporting of the system quality assessment tools Preparing documentation n Main achievements are BC MFC architecture is specificified and improved; Transition to more powerful workstations is carried out; New subsystem for V3 version of Bio-Optical product is developed; Sophisticated satellite altimetry assimilation procedure is developed, tested and implemented in circulation model ;

5. System Evolution: achievements MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 MyO2 FTP interfaces are implemented: FTP with MyO2 central authentication and MyO2Transaction Accounting. It will be used for all products since V3. V3 version of the system is developed, configured, and internally tested. The tests were done for all external interfaces Upstream, Downstream (SBS, DGF and MyO FTP on special dedicated MIS-GW). Download rate, number of simultaneous connections, processing and downloading time for each interface are implemented. All technical tests of V3 interfaces are passed through with good results

6. System Evolution: achievements Interface with the exec body for system, scientific, service coordination, planning, collection of implementation requirements is established The subsystem monitoring and subsystem quality control instruments for V3 version are developed according to WP17 demands and implemented to the BS MFC to ensure their operational functioning. In situ data are controlled by quality flags. System documentation and systems engineering records of BS MFC V3 are provided. The system monitoring tools are installed. Each product line and service is documented Preparation to transitioning over a transition period before operations start is done

7. Production Evolution MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n Objectives were Sustainable routine operation corresponding to user requirements and world best practice n Further development of product line and extension of services n Routine assessment of the product quality n Main achievements are n Infrastructure operations of version 2: modelling chains, archiving, dissemination of products are working stable. n Internal control for products availability is done on regular basis n Routine validation is done according to predefined protocols, on a regular basis: near real time mode - for SST, delayed time mode - for water temperature, water salinity, currents velocities, sea level and phytoplankton concentration Interface with the system manager for operations requirements, performances, organization and reporting is established

8. Production Evolution: achievements MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 n Interface with the CIS for interfaces and meta data specification reporting for system V2 is established and prepared for working with System V3. n Interface with the service desk; scientific expertise over the region, thematic expertise over the region is established for system V2 and prepared for working with System V3. n Interface with the service coordination for service design, organization, performances, reporting, user feedback, SLA commitment is established for system V2 and prepared for working with System V3. Physical and Bio-Optical products are updated to V3 version

9. Achievements: Products improvements from V2 to V3; implementation of new altimetry pre- processing and assimilation algorithm MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 nObsRMSD Corr. Coeff. All Sat.37566 2.792 0.895 Envisat-N 4212 2.839 0.926 Jason-1N 2803 2.866 0.882 Jason-212779 2.571 0.909 Criosat-211608 3.013 0.888 Jason-1G 6164 2.734 0.820 Root men square deviation & correlation coefficient between modeled and satellite sea levels January-September 2012 Example of the modeled Sea Level validation results for 2012 year Example of the modeled currents velocities validation results for 2012 year RMSD histogram for all satellites & tracks Jason-2. Standard deviations between modeled & observed Sea Level. Track - 007 RMSD (cm) Frequency Cycle

10. Achievements: Products improvements from V2 to V3; better sea surface salinity DepthMeanRMSMeanRMS V2 V3 0-5m0.240.340.090.30

11. Achievements: Products improvements from V2 to V3; attenuation coefficient V1V3 BLACKSEA_ANALYSIS_BIO_007_004 - Attenuation coefficient on different layers depends of the Black Sea stratification for 4- 11 Jun 2012 year Attenuation coefficients on different depths 2.5 m30 m 75 m Profile of Attenuation Coefficient

12. Achievements: Specific core Product for major account user MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Water temperature 2.5 mWater salinity 2.5 mWater temperature 2000 m Water salinity 2000 m Velocity zonal component 2.5 m Velocity meridional component 2.5 m Seasonal mean Temperature, Salinity, Currents fields and their anomalies for the Surface and Bottom layer of the Black Sea.

13. Achievements: validation of SST & Phytoplankton concentration MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 V3

14. Improvements, results, illustrations: numerical algorithm MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Vertical velocity cm/s on the level 1550 m simulated on 17 January 2008 by old (left) and improved (right) models Improvement of the model numerical algorithm: reduction noise in the vertical velocity

15. Improvements, results, illustrations: reduction of overheating MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 2007 year 2008 year Maximum of SST (˚С) over the basin surface in simulations by the old (1, red color) and improved (2, blue color) models. ( day 5400 corresponds to 13.10.2007, day 6200 – to 22.12.2008). Implementation of the upper layer absorption dependent of the phytoplankton concentration: reduction of overheating

16. Improvements, results, illustrations: profiling float data assimilation MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Error statistics for three profiling floats № 1901200 Dept h  t (V2)  t (V3)  t (V2)  t (V3) 100.3087-0.143 0.1334 0.163 250.13970.005 0,17110.142 50-0.4495-0.385 0.4773 0.507 150-0.4069-0.132 0.1292 0.144 300-0.0500-0.010 0.0261 0.033 № 6900803 100.2260.022 0.2267 0.226 250.19500.012 0.1965 0.160 500.26090.258 0.3453 0.337 150-0.31610.004 0.1145 0.123 300-0.0588-0.005 0.0291 0.033 № 6900804 100.24800.029 0.24700.155 250.17440.066 0.2008 0.185 500.25860.230 0.2590 0.291 150-0.25420.095 0.4234 0.420 300-0.0648-0.004 0.0434 0.047 № 6900805 100.352-0.009 0.1860 0.250 250.16180.016 0.2214 0.246 500.03700.052 0.4998 0.467 150-0.25080.045 0.1168 0.098 300-0.03590.026 0.0296 0.028

17. Improvements, results, illustrations MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Water temperature 2.5 mWater salinity 2.5 mWater temperature 2000 m Testing of new algorithm the profiling float data assimilation

18. Improvements, results, illustrations: tuning of NEMO MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Surface velocity Surface salinity

19. Improvements, results, illustrations: NEMO Black Sea level MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 Sea level topography Kerch Strait volume transport

20. Work Package product Web browsing MyOcean Close out / MyOcean 2 Kick Off – 27-29 March 2012 Black Sea MFC WEB Site: World wide interest. Requests from 01.04.2012 to 01.04.2013

21. Main difficulties encountered  More uniformity distributed ARGO profilers data is desirable for assimilation in circulation model  More other in situ data is necessary to have to assess carefully the quality of BS Physical and Bio-ecological models  Atmospheric forcing quality for the reanalysis

22. First period summary MyOcean2 First Annual Meeting – 17-18 April 2013 - Smooth transition from MyO to MyO2 is fulfilled; -The V3.0 of BS forecasting system is implemented with improved product line, product assessment tools, sophisticated space altimetry assimilation algorithm and quarterly assessment of product quality; -The service team of 30 years average age is created for the following operation of the Copernicus Marine Service; -Increased sustainability of the system is achieved; Improved quality of products is achieved; -Tier 1 R&D is carried out to ensure following evolution of the system.

23. Next steps - Circulation model coupled with bio-optical model will be implemented to specify better parameterisation of absorption of the short-wave radiation, assimilation of the profiling floats of EuroArgo project and real-time quality control of physical variables - Black and Azov seas NEMO will be improved to the operational level. -Long-term evolution of the Black Sea physics and ecosystem will be by simulated by the models with data assimilation of all available space and in situ data. - Surface wave forecast products will be included to the catalogue of the Black Sea MFC products.