1. UWC Institute of Post-School Studies Nico Cloete Johann Mouton Charles Sheppard

2. Presentation 1.The Context of the Fees Crisis 2.The Doctorate

3. Context of the Fees Crisis 1.Shift in funding 2.Low Percentage of GDP allocated to higher education 3.Differentiated Fee Structure required 4.What to do?

4. Higher education income sources, ZAR (billion) Source: DHET, Financial Statements in Annual reports submitted by Universities

5. 5 Source: R&D data: Mouton J (2015) A Research Innovation Framework; HE data: Charles Sheppard

6. Expenditure on higher education as % of GDP, 2012 Compiled by Charles Sheppard Source: OECD 2010

7. Context of the Fees Crisis 1.It could be more efficient to give Institutions greater proportion of funding and reduce pressure on fees? 2.Percentage of GDP for Science and Higher Education is too small. 3.HE Budget for 2015/6 is ZAR 30 billion: 1% of GDP = R 41 billion The extra ZAR 11 billion more than covers ZAR 2.6 billion fees shortfall 4. Higher education in SA: is too cheap for the rich too expensive for the middle class the deserving poor is covered 5. What to do to prevent higher education from becoming like SAA and Eskom with annual bailouts?

8. Policy Pressures on Doctorate Production in SA

9. More PhDs 1.Castells – the university as engine of development in the knowledge economy (1991 Kuala Lumpur, World Bank; UWC 2001) 2.Knowledge more important than capital or materials 3.Talent, not capital is the primary source of competitive advantage 4.Unprecedented growth – China 50 000 pa, University Sao Paulo more than the whole SA system - traditional systems US, UK much slower 5.Number of doctorates far exceed number of places in US in 1970 50% of PhD’s got tenure track position, by 2006 15% (100 000 new PhD’s, 15 000 new academic jobs) In Germany only 6% aim for academic position 6.What do they do – finance, research organisations, pastors 7.Silicon valley – innovation 8.Ms Zuma, (AU commissioner, 2013) – Africa must produce ten’s of thousands of Phd’s – as long as they stay in Africa. 9. NDP 2030 and Naledi Pandor DST Budget speech, July 2014 – SA must produce 5000 per year and will ask government for R5 billion 10. The PhD factories – is it time to stop? (Cyranoski; Nature, 2011)

10. Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2012

11. Average shares of the doctoral enrolments in the various fields of study (1996-2012) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

12. Doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

13. 13 Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

14. 14 Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

15. Progress of 2006 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years by cluster

16. 16 Summary of progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students after 7 years by fields of study Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

17. 17 Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

18. 18 Progression from bachelors to honours Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

19. 19 Students’ primary source of support (2013) Source: ??? Compiled by Charles Sheppard African/ Coloured/ Indian White HONOURS Family earnings or savings (incl. those of partner)41%70% Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF)33%30% Personal earnings/savings31%37% MASTERS Personal earnings/savings38%47% Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF)31%41% Family earnings or savings (incl. those of partner)23%34% Employer reimbursement/assistance23%(18%) DOCTORAL Other scholarship/bursary (not NRF)42%49% Personal earnings/savings34%42% NRF scholarship33%46%

20. Doctoral graduates by race (1996–2012)

21. Black doctoral graduates produced by universities in 2012

22. African doctoral graduates by nationality and gender Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Doctoral Education in South Africa

23. 23 Average annual growth rates by nationality and gender (2000–2012) Source: Cloete et al. (2015) Knowledge Production and Contradictory Functions in African Higher Education

24. African female PhD graduates from South Africa and the rest of Africa by field of study and nationality (2012) 24 Source: HEMIS. Compiled by Charles Sheppard Field of studySouth AfricaRest of AfricaTotal Natural sciences2322.1%5238.2%7531.3% Engineering and technology32.9%75.1%104.2% Health sciences2019.2%139.6%3313.8% Business, economic and management sciences65.8%96.6%156.3% Education2221.2%118.1%3313.8% Humanities and social sciences3028.8%4432.4%7430.8% Total104100.0%136100.0%240100.0%

25. South Africa a PhD Bargain 1.SA has 5 Universities in Shanghai top 500 2.Full time research PhD Costs UK (Bath)– $21 450 fees (foreigners) + $18 000 living = $46 050 US (Berkeley) - $31 900 fees + $23 000 living = $54 900 US (NYU ) - $41 300 fees + $26 000 living = $67 300 SA (US) - $2000 +$1000 (foreigners) + $10 000 living = $13 000 SA three times cheaper than Bath, four times cheaper than Berkeley and five times cheaper than NYU 3.Golden triangle – Efficiency, Transformation Quality (perceived) 4.But the Africans from the rest of Africa are not SA Africans, not black, not disadvantaged or not “ours” (nationalism or middle class xenophobia?) 5.Too few doctorates at African flagship universities

26. Variables used in the analysis of a PhD Production Model Growth Measured in terms of the average annual growth rate for the period 2008 to 2012. This shows particularly the impact of the funding framework which provides huge financial incentives for enrolling and the production of PhD graduates Efficiency Two indicators were used for measuring efficiency:  Measured in terms of student throughput/ completion rates. For this analysis it was measured as the % of the 2006 cohort graduating after 7 years.  Ratio of the number of PhD graduates to the number of academic staff with doctorates in the year2012 Transformation Two indicators were used for measuring transformation:  Number of Black (African, Coloured, Asian) PhDs produced in 2012  Number of Women PhDs produced in 2012  Statistical analysis by Prof Amanda Lourens (IDSC)

29. Tough Policy Choices 1.Should the seven institutions in Group One (30% of the universities in the system) be regarded as having an ‘embedded research culture’ with strong doctoral programmes and what are the policy levers for further strengthening such universities? 2.Should the ten institutions in Group 2 be encouraged to develop and expand their research and doctoral education capacities, while this would develop the broader system, it would be against the international trend of concentration on a smaller group of institutions. 3.Should the six institutions that produce one percent of the doctoral graduates be allowed to continue to offer doctoral programmes? 4.Should the expensive fulltime programmes be distributed across all institutions or concentrated in the most efficient universities with the highest supervisory capacity? 5.Should institutions that are producing the most black and women graduates be given preference when it comes to allocating the proposed fulltime doctoral education positions?

31. Nico Cloete Ian Bunting Charles Sheppard & François van Schalkwyk Data from CHET, CREST & African HE Open Data www.chet.org.za/data/african-he-opendata