1. R2O and O2R between NSSL and SPC: The benefits of Collocation Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, Mike Coniglio, Harold Brooks, Israel Jirak, and Adam Clark

2. Prior to the NWS re-organization in the mid-90s, the National Centers for severe weather Forecasting and Research were about 400 miles apart… Norman Kansas City

3. Prior to the Prior to the NWS re-organization in the mid-90s, the National Centers for severe weather Forecasting and Research were about 400 miles apart… Norman Kansas City

4. The NSSL/SPC vision… …as reflected in a job announcement …the [NSSL] scientist will spend 10% of his/her time doing shift work with the SPC… …the other 90% will be research in support of the SPC… …this person would eventually work up to being a replacement Lead Forecaster… …this will free up time for the SPC Lead Forecasters to do research and interact with NSSL…

5. Before there was a Hazardous Weather Testbed: The NSSL/SPC Science Support Area ~1999 Daily Map Discussion

6. A hopeful beginning … Finally, we wish to emphasize that this study was greatly facilitated by the collocation of the SPC and NSSL facilities. The first two authors were both present at the SPC winter weather forecast desk as the surprise snowstorm blossomed around 0000 UTC 4 February 1998. Their keen interest in this event was fueled by the excitement that it generated, the forecasting challenge that it presented, and the obvious need to understand it better. In their effort to explain the unfolding evolution of events, they both committed to an exchange of time, resources, and data that would have been much less likely to come together if not for the collocated facilities. Melting Layer

7. 2001 NSSL/SPC “Spring Program”

8. Real-time NWP efforts began around this time… EtaKF (NSSL/SPC)Eta (operational) Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) convective parameterization Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization 2 nd Order Horizontal Diffusion4 th Order Horizontal Diffusion Run at 00Z and 12Z daily Output is… post-processed in same way as operational version (comparing apples and apples…) post-processed in same way as operational version (comparing apples and apples…) disseminated to SPC workstations and elsewhere disseminated to SPC workstations and elsewhere

9. Consider the impact of parameterized shallow convection: 12 h forecasts for BHM valid 00 UTC 12 May 2000 Opnl Eta 00Z Raob Etakf 00Z Raob

10. Extraction of unique diagnostic fields tailored to SPC needs – from Eta model Parameterized Updraft Mass Flux Parameterized Updraft Source Layer P(mb)

11. Successful transitions on this topic… 9 SREF KF & BMJ Convective Schemes KF Scheme 4 formal Publications

12. Tornadic Supercells Isolated cells ahead of the main line WRF Simulated 1 km AGL Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity “The [simulated reflectivity field] provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster 15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak Developing Model Capabilities: Simulated reflectivity

13. 2 km AGL 5 km AGL Convective Mode: Supercell Detection Besides simulated reflectivity, need a quantitative tool for supercell detection and strength in WRF forecasts UH = Updraft Helicity

14. Observed Reflectivity (~2 h earlier) UH ≥ 25m 2 s -2 Using UH to identify mesocyclones…

15. Exploring the concept of using explicit storm attributes from high resolution models to derive probabilistic forecasts of storm reports “Surrogate” Severe Reports from an ensemble of 4-km WRF-model forecasts Observed Severe Weather Reports 5 30 45 15 “practically perfect” probabilistic forecast – Brooks, Kay, and Hart (1998)

16. Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) (Jirak et al.) April 27, 2011

17. Collaboration between researchers and practitioners can be difficult and strained – and in many ways the interactions between NSSL and SPC have fallen short of expectations…

18. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… SPC forecasters are doing great research and publishing on their own!

19. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… Through the leadership of Ariel Cohen, Rich Thompson, and others, SPC forecasters are educating OU/SOM students

20. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… NSSL Scientist Mike Coniglio is working forecast shifts for the SPC and doing great collaborative research Courtesy Ariel Cohen

21. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… Recently retired SPC forecasters Dave Imy and Jack Hales forecasted for the multi-million dollar, NSF-funded PECAN experiment last summer

22. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… Adam Clark is running a realtime convection-allowing ensemble prediction system in collaboration with the SPC

23. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… The Hazardous Weather Testbed, with an operations paradigm based on early NSSL-SPC interactions, has become a model for R2O and O2R in NOAA – and much of this growth has occurred in the Experimental Warning Program New HWT Old “HWT””

24. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… Within the last 5 years NSSL has hired 2 NWS MICs in high-level management positions

25. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… Two major weather-related NOAA initiatives – Warn on Forecast and FACETs – have emerged from the collaborative activities in Norman

26. The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the ~1995 vision, but… …the positive impacts of collocation have been tremendous, with many unanticipated benefits