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Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India P.R. Shukla.

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Presentation on theme: "Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India P.R. Shukla."— Presentation transcript:

1 Long-term Technology Strategy for Global GHG Stabilization: with Application for India P.R. Shukla

2 THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC) Objective:...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (p.5)

3 BENCHMARKS ___________________________ 2 CO 2 Concentration  275 ppmv in 1850  358 ppmv in 1994 2 1990 Anthropogenic Emissions Rate  Fossil Fuels=6.0 PgC/yr  Land-Use Change (deforestation)=1.3 PgC/yr

4 ATMOSPHERIC STABILIZATION EMISSIONS PATHS Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

5 Global Emissions and Concentration Paths for Annex I Emissions Mitigation Emissions Concentrations Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

6 LONG-TERM RESOURCE ISSUES of the UNFCCC Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 2 Stranded Assets  Physical Capital  Fossil Fuel Resources 2 Ratio of Financial Flows/Economic Cost  Cost = $15-$30 billion  Tax Revenues = $150 billion 2 Non-Annex I Economic Development

7 REFERENCE CASE ASSUMPTIONS ___________________________ Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

8 REGIONAL POPULATION Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

9 REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH Pacific Northwest National Laboratory GDP Per Capita GDP

10 NON-ANNEX I GRADUATION

11 CARBON STORAGE RESERVOIRS Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

12 Stabilizing the Atmosphere: Some Conclusions 2 Free Venting of Carbon Must Eventually Be Phased Out, 2 But Not Necessarily Fossil Fuels. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

13 GHG Stabilization Analysis for India

14 Global Energy Shares ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr 1990 5.8 PgC/yr

15 Global Energy Shares ERB Reference : 2095 21 PgC/yr 1990 5.8 PgC/yr

16 Energy Use in India

17 Indian Energy Trends

18 Indian Energy Intensity Trends

19 Future Indian Emissions? Cumulative Emissions (1990 - 2095): Pg. CBF Reference :109 India 550 : 63 India CBF Business As Usual 1990 Technology India 550 India CBF Ref

20 Filling the Indian Gap AOG, Competitive Solution

21 Filling the Indian Gap AOG, Imperfect Institutions

22 India Modeling: Technologies 1) Natural Gas 2) Energy Efficiency 3) Clean Coal 4) Nuclear 5) Renewables 6) Transport 7) Carbon Capture

23 Filling the Indian Gap?

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